(Clinton vs Trump) Which state will be called first on election night?

[madelka]

I'd say Florida will be called for Clinton before Ohio. The swing states probably get called in this order: PA, NH, WI, VA, FL, NV, OH, IA, CO, NC - all for Clinton.

[°Leprechaun]

I say Florida because, I believe that the polls there will close first. If the election is close I could see either state being called first because those two states would be very close, but I don't think the election would be close in such a scenario.

[JonathanSwift]

Ohio, for Trump.

[madelka]

I'd say Florida will be called for Clinton before Ohio. The swing states probably get called in this order: PA, NH, WI, VA, FL, NV, OH, IA, CO, NC - all for Clinton.

PA has a D counting bias, so if it's a national blowout for Hillary, it would be called very early.  If it's a close race, it would be called quite late.  And calling VA before the West Coast and even before Mountain states isn't going to happen unless she is winning the state by 15% or more.  Early VA returns are 15-20% more R than the state as a whole.

If the exit polls show Clinton +9 and Trump does worse than Romney in the exurbs and rural areas, why would they not call the state at... say... 9:20 PM ET? If Trump is ahead in VA 50-46 with 40% in, it's pretty much over for him.

[Inmate Trump]

Both states will go to Clinton.

I'll say Florida gets called first.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'd say Florida will be called for Clinton before Ohio. The swing states probably get called in this order: PA, NH, WI, VA, FL, NV, OH, IA, CO, NC - all for Clinton.

PA has a D counting bias, so if it's a national blowout for Hillary, it would be called very early.  If it's a close race, it would be called quite late.  And calling VA before the West Coast and even before Mountain states isn't going to happen unless she is winning the state by 15% or more.  Early VA returns are 15-20% more R than the state as a whole.

If the exit polls show Clinton +9 and Trump does worse than Romney in the exurbs and rural areas, why would they not call the state at... say... 9:20 PM ET? If Trump is ahead in VA 50-46 with 40% in, it's pretty much over for him.

Yeah, some networks would, but it wouldn't be a unified call. It would be like WI 2012 - three networks called it before 10 ET, one waited until 10:30 ET, one waited until 11 ET. The networks each have their own decision desks and aren't required to call anything just because another network/AP has.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'd say Florida will be called for Clinton before Ohio. The swing states probably get called in this order: PA, NH, WI, VA, FL, NV, OH, IA, CO, NC - all for Clinton.

PA has a D counting bias, so if it's a national blowout for Hillary, it would be called very early.  If it's a close race, it would be called quite late.  And calling VA before the West Coast and even before Mountain states isn't going to happen unless she is winning the state by 15% or more.  Early VA returns are 15-20% more R than the state as a whole.

If the exit polls show Clinton +9 and Trump does worse than Romney in the exurbs and rural areas, why would they not call the state at... say... 9:20 PM ET? If Trump is ahead in VA 50-46 with 40% in, it's pretty much over for him.

Yeah, some networks would, but it wouldn't be a unified call. It would be like WI 2012 - three networks called it before 10 ET, one waited until 10:30 ET, one waited until 11 ET. The networks each have their own decision desks and aren't required to call anything just because another network/AP has.

It's like how many here say that the election was called in 2012 with the call of Ohio, but FOX didn't call it until Iowa, I think.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'd say Florida will be called for Clinton before Ohio. The swing states probably get called in this order: PA, NH, WI, VA, FL, NV, OH, IA, CO, NC - all for Clinton.

PA has a D counting bias, so if it's a national blowout for Hillary, it would be called very early.  If it's a close race, it would be called quite late.  And calling VA before the West Coast and even before Mountain states isn't going to happen unless she is winning the state by 15% or more.  Early VA returns are 15-20% more R than the state as a whole.

If the exit polls show Clinton +9 and Trump does worse than Romney in the exurbs and rural areas, why would they not call the state at... say... 9:20 PM ET? If Trump is ahead in VA 50-46 with 40% in, it's pretty much over for him.

Yeah, some networks would, but it wouldn't be a unified call. It would be like WI 2012 - three networks called it before 10 ET, one waited until 10:30 ET, one waited until 11 ET. The networks each have their own decision desks and aren't required to call anything just because another network/AP has.

It's like how many here say that the election was called in 2012 with the call of Ohio, but FOX didn't call it until Iowa, I think.

Yeah, when they called Ohio, Obama had only 262 by their count, but they said it was more or less over. They called Iowa and Oregon a couple minutes later.