Post NH: Which Democratic candidate would be stronger against Trump?

[Ronnie]

I'm beginning to think the answer might be Bernie.  Trump seems to be at a loss for how to attack him ("he wants to give our country away"), and Bernie's nomination would significantly blunt the anti-establishment message currently driving Trump's campaign.  Not to mention, the only candidate in this race with supporters who are even nearly as enthusiastic as Trump's is Bernie.

[Beet]

Trump winning against either of them is a long shot, but IMO it is less of a long shot against Bernie because there's a chance Trump could paint Bernie as a radical socialist and destroy him with attacks over his proposals and voting record. Bernie has never faced a sustained serious attack from the right so we don't know how he'd fare.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie of course. Hillary is vulnerable to Trump running to her left on TPP, the Iraq war, and H-1Bs.

[Beet]

Bernie of course. Hillary is vulnerable to Trump running to her left on TPP, the Iraq war, and H-1Bs.

2 of your 3 issues are heavily driven by xenophobia, which is right wing, not left wing. But I agree it's likely popular.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie of course. Hillary is vulnerable to Trump running to her left on TPP, the Iraq war, and H-1Bs.

2 of your 3 issues are heavily driven by xenophobia, which is right wing, not left wing. But I agree it's likely popular.

Opposition to TPP is xenophobic? Are you kidding me?

LOL at Obama getting sued under NAFTA for his Keystone XL decision. You can not be pro-environment and pro "free trade".

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think Trump would beat Hillary. Look at how he singlehandedly destroyed Bush's candidacy with an anti-establishment message.

How Trump would run against Sanders is more difficult for me to work out, he'd probably have to change tack a bit. Like Beet said we don't know how effectively Sanders could weather the "radical socialist" line of attack. I suspect it would be successful, but who knows.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Obviously Bernie. Clinton can't even keep her campaign straight.

[Beet]

Bernie of course. Hillary is vulnerable to Trump running to her left on TPP, the Iraq war, and H-1Bs.

2 of your 3 issues are heavily driven by xenophobia, which is right wing, not left wing. But I agree it's likely popular.

Opposition to TPP is xenophobic? Are you kidding me?

A significant streak of it is, yes. That's why the far right is against it as well. "Selling out" U.S. sovereignty and so on. I often see it on Daily Kos. For example, the "guilt" in this piece comes from the fact that the company in question does business in *China* (shudder).

[tallguy23]

Hillary. Socalism is still a scary word for most Americans. Maybe in 30-40 years it won't.

[Lief 🗽]

Beet is of course correct that a good deal of opposition to the TPP is racism/xenophobia (which also informed Sanders' disgusting opposition to Ted Kennedy's immigration reform bill in 2006).

Anyway, Bernie Sanders will not win a general election against any Republican candidate. Swing voters are not going to vote for a socialist. Sorry.

[indysaff]

Edit: I thought the question was about NH, oops.

I still give Bernie the edge, though Clinton would slaughter Trump too.

[MT Treasurer]

Hillary and Sanders would both win NH versus Trump. I just think Bernie's margin would be a lot more comfortable than Hillary's.

Yes, but NH is not a swing state.

[Shadows]

Sanders.

Hillary's Campaign Finance, Wall Street Money, Bill' issues, Hillary's emails, Benghazi, etc are huge issues. Trump would destroy Hillary when it comes to campaign financing.

He would be playing the Warren Video time & again & even pay money & get Bill's victims to campaign for him & publish their interviews.

And ofcourse Hillary can not play any of her card - LBGT rights & stuff - Trump can play multiple videos of her flip flops and what not & prove she is dishonest & has no stuff.

The TPP & Iraq Wars are disastrous. Hillary herself admits it is wrong. Trump will destroy her on it - Calling her responsible for ISISI, the deaths & the joblessness today!

Hillary will be annihilated by Trump!

[This account no longer in use.]

Sanders has a much higher ceiling than Clinton, but a much lower floor than Clinton. It all depends on how the Trump-Sanders supporters swing.

[Mehmentum]

Trump will be able to unleash a slew of attacks at Sanders that Clinton would never be able to in the Democratic primary.  Socialism would be just the tip of the iceberg, and Trump has no limits.

I think most of the people in this thread are underestimating Trump by quite a bit.  I wish I could share you guys' optimism.

[indysaff]

Hillary and Sanders would both win NH versus Trump. I just think Bernie's margin would be a lot more comfortable than Hillary's.

Yes, but NH is not a swing state.

Indeed, I misread the OP.

Trump will be able to unleash a slew of attacks at Sanders that Clinton would never be able to in the Democratic primary.  Socialism would be just the tip of the iceberg, and Trump has no limits.

I think most of the people in this thread are underestimating Trump by quite a bit.  I wish I could share you guys' optimism.

I'm more concerned that people might be more excited to vote for Trump, especially since turnout has been so much higher this time around for the Republicans. Sanders can compete in terms of getting turnout up, I think Hillary would struggle.

[Mehmentum]

Hillary and Sanders would both win NH versus Trump. I just think Bernie's margin would be a lot more comfortable than Hillary's.

Yes, but NH is not a swing state.

Indeed, I misread the OP.

Trump will be able to unleash a slew of attacks at Sanders that Clinton would never be able to in the Democratic primary.  Socialism would be just the tip of the iceberg, and Trump has no limits.

I think most of the people in this thread are underestimating Trump by quite a bit.  I wish I could share you guys' optimism.

I'm more concerned that people might be more excited to vote for Trump, especially since turnout has been so much higher this time around for the Republicans. Sanders can compete in terms of getting turnout up, I think Hillary would struggle.

But can Sanders actually compete?  In New Hampshire, GOP turnout was much higher the Democratic turnout.  This is a state that's basically tailor made for Sanders, and yet Democrats are still losing the turnout game.  If Sanders was actually able to bring in droves of voters like Obama did in 2008, why are Democrats being overshadowed in one of Sanders' strongest states?

And the Sanders coalition is only a part of the Democrats' turnout game.  Hispanics have incredibly low turnout, and African American turnout is in danger of dropping once Obama is off the ballot.  Clinton is stronger than Sanders with both of these groups.

[indysaff]

Hillary and Sanders would both win NH versus Trump. I just think Bernie's margin would be a lot more comfortable than Hillary's.

Yes, but NH is not a swing state.

Indeed, I misread the OP.

Trump will be able to unleash a slew of attacks at Sanders that Clinton would never be able to in the Democratic primary.  Socialism would be just the tip of the iceberg, and Trump has no limits.

I think most of the people in this thread are underestimating Trump by quite a bit.  I wish I could share you guys' optimism.

I'm more concerned that people might be more excited to vote for Trump, especially since turnout has been so much higher this time around for the Republicans. Sanders can compete in terms of getting turnout up, I think Hillary would struggle.

But can Sanders actually compete?  In New Hampshire, GOP turnout was much higher the Democratic turnout.  This is a state that's basically tailor made for Sanders, and yet Democrats are still losing the turnout game.  If Sanders was actually able to bring in droves of voters like Obama did in 2008, why are Democrats being overshadowed in one of Sanders' strongest states?

And the Sanders coalition is only a part of the Democrats' turnout game.  Hispanics have incredibly low turnout, and African American turnout is in danger of dropping once Obama is off the ballot.  Clinton is stronger than Sanders with both of these groups.

If Sanders deploys a great GOTV effort, then yes he can compete more comfortably than Hillary could.

A lot of GOP turnout could be due to the fact that there are a lot more candidates competing than on the Democratic side, and Trump benefits from exciting his support with his rhetoric.

[Mehmentum]

Hillary and Sanders would both win NH versus Trump. I just think Bernie's margin would be a lot more comfortable than Hillary's.

Yes, but NH is not a swing state.

Indeed, I misread the OP.

Trump will be able to unleash a slew of attacks at Sanders that Clinton would never be able to in the Democratic primary.  Socialism would be just the tip of the iceberg, and Trump has no limits.

I think most of the people in this thread are underestimating Trump by quite a bit.  I wish I could share you guys' optimism.

I'm more concerned that people might be more excited to vote for Trump, especially since turnout has been so much higher this time around for the Republicans. Sanders can compete in terms of getting turnout up, I think Hillary would struggle.

But can Sanders actually compete?  In New Hampshire, GOP turnout was much higher the Democratic turnout.  This is a state that's basically tailor made for Sanders, and yet Democrats are still losing the turnout game.  If Sanders was actually able to bring in droves of voters like Obama did in 2008, why are Democrats being overshadowed in one of Sanders' strongest states?

And the Sanders coalition is only a part of the Democrats' turnout game.  Hispanics have incredibly low turnout, and African American turnout is in danger of dropping once Obama is off the ballot.  Clinton is stronger than Sanders with both of these groups.

If Sanders deploys a great GOTV effort, then yes he can compete more comfortably than Hillary could.

A lot of GOP turnout could be due to the fact that there are a lot more candidates competing than on the Democratic side, and Trump benefits from exciting his support with his rhetoric.

Even with African Americans and Hispanics, who have been lukewarm to his candidacy, and form a crucial part of the Democratic coalition?  Color me skeptical.

As for the number of candidates thing... well I guess we'll find out pretty soon whether that's the case, but I suspect that its not the reason.

[indysaff]

Hillary and Sanders would both win NH versus Trump. I just think Bernie's margin would be a lot more comfortable than Hillary's.

Yes, but NH is not a swing state.

Indeed, I misread the OP.

Trump will be able to unleash a slew of attacks at Sanders that Clinton would never be able to in the Democratic primary.  Socialism would be just the tip of the iceberg, and Trump has no limits.

I think most of the people in this thread are underestimating Trump by quite a bit.  I wish I could share you guys' optimism.

I'm more concerned that people might be more excited to vote for Trump, especially since turnout has been so much higher this time around for the Republicans. Sanders can compete in terms of getting turnout up, I think Hillary would struggle.

But can Sanders actually compete?  In New Hampshire, GOP turnout was much higher the Democratic turnout.  This is a state that's basically tailor made for Sanders, and yet Democrats are still losing the turnout game.  If Sanders was actually able to bring in droves of voters like Obama did in 2008, why are Democrats being overshadowed in one of Sanders' strongest states?

And the Sanders coalition is only a part of the Democrats' turnout game.  Hispanics have incredibly low turnout, and African American turnout is in danger of dropping once Obama is off the ballot.  Clinton is stronger than Sanders with both of these groups.

If Sanders deploys a great GOTV effort, then yes he can compete more comfortably than Hillary could.

A lot of GOP turnout could be due to the fact that there are a lot more candidates competing than on the Democratic side, and Trump benefits from exciting his support with his rhetoric.

Even with African Americans and Hispanics, who have been lukewarm to his candidacy, and form a crucial part of the Democratic coalition?  Color me skeptical.

As for the number of candidates thing... well I guess we'll find out pretty soon whether that's the case.

I felt the same way about Non-whites until recently, where he hasn't been doing that awful with that group. I agree on African Americans though, he's going to struggle with that group and he'll have to work pretty hard to win them over. The struggle is real. 

[Camaro33]

All of 2015 I would have said Hillary. She was "inevitable". However, now I am confident that Bernie Sanders would be a much more challenging opponent.

This is due to several factors. First off, the Hillary coalition is just not there. It is not as strong as the Obama coalition. The whole "I'm a woman" thing hasn't worked as well as she had hoped or I expected. She lacks a noteworthy amount of the millennial and minority support that Obama had. If she is the nominee, Democratic turnout will be low. Her presidency is "expected" and the result of what her presidency would entail is widely known and nothing good but yet nothing terrible or unexpected. A lot like Obama's third term. Plus, lots of people will not vote for her because of her scandals and portrayal as a liar or dishonest.

Bernie would be much more formidable because he has a new and perhaps much more dangerous coalition than Obama. His coalition includes entitled white college kids and the vast majority of people under 35 across all demographics. He will beat Obama significantly with millennial support, and will likely nearly perform as well as Obama with minorities albeit their turnout dropping a tad. Millennial turnout will be RECORD high, and you will see UNQUESTIONABLY the greatest age bracket voting difference in American history in a Trump vs. Sanders election. Something along the lines of millennials voting >70% Sanders and people 50+ voting >70% Trump would not surprise me...

With that said, I think any Trump vs (Sanders/Clinton) matchup would be a close election, but I give a strong edge to Sanders because he excites the liberal base substantially greater than Clinton, who would depress turnout. It comes down to turnout. In the end, I think Trump vs Sanders is a toss up at this point.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Hillary. Socalism is still a scary word for most Americans. Maybe in 30-40 years it won't.

No it's not. A lot of Americans support programs that are actually pretty socialist. Just like social security which is pure socialism. Bernie calls himself a democratic socialist and the only thing that's been happening because of that is him rising in the polls.