Alternate 2012 Primaries?

[mencken]

How do you picture the GOP primaries going assuming the following changes:

• Rick Perry does what he did in 2010, and demands that Mitt Romney release his tax returns as a condition for debating (if not this, come up with some other plausible explanation for how a candidate high on pain medication avoids slipping up so badly in the debates)
• Chris Christie enters the race in early October.

[NHI]

If Christie entered I think he has a good shot at being the nominee. He surpasses Romney as the establishment candidate and goes head-to-head with Rick Perry

[Kingpoleon]

Either a Christie/Huntsman or Gingrich/Christie ticket emerges. I expect Gingrich's "tough intellectual" front to play a stark contrast to Christie. Christie/Gingrich would probably lock down base turnout in the Midwest and South, particularly MO, IN, IA, VA, NC, and FL. Gingrich would hold onto those states and campaign there while Christie campaigns in Maine, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New Hampshire.

Chris Christie: 58.25%
Rick Perry: 22.5%
Newt Gingrich: 11.75%
Others: 7.5%

341: Christopher Christie(R-NJ)/Jon Huntsman, Jr.(R-UT) - 53.2%
197: Barack Obama(D-IL)/Joseph Biden(D-DE) - 45.1%

[mencken]

Even when he was the third-string establishment candidate in 2008, Romney still won Nevada and got second place in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida. Unless he quickly withdrew after losing New Hampshire to Christie (which may be more difficult than it appears, since Romney literally lived there for four years), I would think that Romney would win at least a handful of primaries, if only in the Mormon Belt and Massachusetts.

I also do not really see how Gingrich is still a factor in this scenario; voters can get both his personality and Southern drawl from one of the other candidates running, without all of his baggage.

[Kingpoleon]

Even when he was the third-string establishment candidate in 2008, Romney still won Nevada and got second place in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida. Unless he quickly withdrew after losing New Hampshire to Christie (which may be more difficult than it appears, since Romney literally lived there for four years), I would think that Romney would win at least a handful of primaries, if only in the Mormon Belt and Massachusetts.

I also do not really see how Gingrich is still a factor in this scenario; voters can get both his personality and Southern drawl from one of the other candidates running, without all of his baggage.

Unlike Romney, neither Perry nor Christie is an intellectual. Gingrich is a Southerner, like Perry, and tough, like Christie. He's probably the compromise between the two.