Who will win the Super Tuesday states? - GOP
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  Who will win the Super Tuesday states? - GOP		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: T for Trump, C for Cruz, R for Rubio, K for Kasich, and B for Bush
#1
AL - T		  
#2
AL - C		  
#3
AL - R		  
#4
AL - K		  
#5
AL - B		  
#6
AK - T		  
#7
AK - C		  
#8
AK - R		  
#9
AK - K		  
#10
AK - B		  
#11
AR - T		  
#12
AR - C		  
#13
AR - R		  
#14
AR - K		  
#15
AR - B		  
#16
CO - T		  
#17
CO - C		  
#18
CO - R		  
#19
CO - K		  
#20
CO - B		  
#21
GA - T		  
#22
GA - C		  
#23
GA - R		  
#24
GA - K		  
#25
GA - B		  
#26
MA - T		  
#27
MA - C		  
#28
MA - R		  
#29
MA - K		  
#30
MA - B		  
#31
MN - T		  
#32
MN - C		  
#33
MN - R		  
#34
MN - K		  
#35
MN - B		  
#36
OK - T		  
#37
OK - C		  
#38
OK - R		  
#39
OK - K		  
#40
OK - B		  
#41
TN - T		  
#42
TN - C		  
#43
TN - R		  
#44
TN - K		  
#45
TN - B		  
#46
TX - T		  
#47
TX - C		  
#48
TX - R		  
#49
TX - K		  
#50
TX - B		  
#51
VT - T		  
#52
VT - C		  
#53
VT - R		  
#54
VT - K		  
#55
VT - B		  
#56
VA - T		  
#57
VA - C		  
#58
VA - R		  
#59
VA - K		  
#60
VA - B		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 27

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Author Topic: Who will win the Super Tuesday states? - GOP  (Read 4158 times)
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darthebearnc
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« on: February 11, 2016, 05:28:25 PM »
much poll options
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2016, 05:29:40 PM »
#whereiscarson
#whereisgilmore
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2016, 05:32:37 PM »
Alabama- Trump
Alaska- Cruz
Arkansas- Trump or Cruz
Colorado- Rubio
Georgia- Trump
Massachusetts- Trump or Kasich
Minnesota- Rubio
Oklahoma- Trump
Tennessee- Cruz
Texas- Cruz
Vermont- Trump
Virginia- Trump or Rubio
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2016, 05:40:04 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2016, 06:03:03 PM by darthpi »
It is hard to say until the rest of the early states vote, but I'm working on the assumption that Trump wins South Carolina and Cruz wins Nevada

Alabama: Trump
Alaska: Cruz
Arkansas: Trump
Colorado: Cruz
Georgia: Trump
Massachusetts: Trump
Minnesota: Cruz
Oklahoma: Cruz
Tennessee: Trump
Texas: Cruz
Vermont: Kasich, Bush, or Rubio
Virginia: Trump
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trickmind
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« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2016, 05:41:16 PM »
Assuming Trump win in SC, Cruz win in NV...

Trump wins:
Alabama
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Massachusetts
Georgia
Tennessee
Virginia

Cruz wins:
Texas
Colorado
Alaska
Minnesota

Kasich wins:
Vermont
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RI
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« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2016, 05:42:17 PM »
All the primaries are lean Trump at least except maybe Texas (lean Cruz) and Vermont (toss-up with Kasich as of now). Minnesota and Alaska are states Cruz can win with his ground game. Colorado isn't taking a preference poll who we won't really have a winner there.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2016, 05:43:58 PM »
Cruz has a very good ground game set up here in Tennessee, but it remains to be seen if that will pull it out for him.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2016, 05:44:45 PM »
I'd say TRUMP probably bests Cruz in most of the South, but Cruz bests Trump in Texas, Colorado (heavily religious republicans are relevant here), Alaska and Minnesota (Caucus). Vermont and Massachusetts are the only cases where Trump's top competition isn't Cruz - It's Kasich - and Kasich probably loses MA by a large margin. And then Virginia and Tennessee (and perhaps Georgia) are the only two (or three) places I see Jeb (or Rubio, depending on who beats who for third in SC) making a respectable showing.

I think it's too far out to tell, though. So most of these states are toss-ups.
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mencken
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« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2016, 05:47:48 PM »
Alabama - I think Cruz's ground game and evangelical bona fides put him over the top here, although Trump should be stronger here than in the other Hucktorum states due to Sessions
Alaska - Will vote for Cruz (or possibly Rubio) out of spite for their infamous former governor.
Arkansas - See Alabama
Colorado - Has voted for the most viable conservative challenger over the last two cycles, plus the West hates Trump. Cruz, with a slight chance of Rubio
Georgia - Romney nearly won in 2008, and voted for Gingrich in 2012 (sure, he was the favorite son, but regardless Santorum did not do well). Trump's best Hucktorum state IMO.
Massachusetts - Kasich should do well here, but it might be too difficult to overcome Trump's Northeastern appeal.
Minnesota - See Colorado
Oklahoma - See Arkansas
Tennessee - See Arkansas, although given their Senators and Governor I could possibly see an opening for Kasich.
Texas - Cruz country
Vermont - I think Kasich wins this
Virginia - No clue. Not sure whether Appalachia (Trump country) or the DC exurbs (Kasich/Rubio/Bush) win out here.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2016, 05:50:04 PM »
I love how terribly Rubio is doing...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2016, 05:57:49 PM »

At this point, I actually think BUSH has a better shot.
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sportydude
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« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2016, 06:12:05 PM »
You forgot Wyoming!!!
Wyoming is not inferior to other states!!1!!1!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2016, 06:13:37 PM »
Cruz: AK, AR, CO, MN, OK, TX, WY
Trump: AL, GA, MA, TN, VT, VA
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2016, 06:16:27 PM »
According to the GOP website (which is actually quite nice), Wyoming won't be holding any sort of presidential preference vote this year. However, I guess it would be interesting to predict who wins the conventions.

Oh well.
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Vosem
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« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2016, 06:24:33 PM »
Going on the assumption that Trump wins SC and Cruz wins NV, which seems to have become standard in this thread. Also assuming that Bush/Kasich/Rubio are all still standing and competing, and that Carson dropped out after SC.

Alabama -- Trump seems pretty strong here
Alaska -- caucus, so probably Cruz
Arkansas -- this one seems more like Cruz territory
Colorado -- see Alaska, probably Cruz
Georgia -- seems Trump
Massachusetts -- so long as the establishment vote stays split, Trump
Minnesota -- caucus, Cruz
Oklahoma -- like Arkansas, the more Plains-y, socially conservative states are likelier Cruz than Trump
Tennessee -- also Cruz
Texas -- Cruz's jewel in the crown
Vermont -- even with the establishment split, I think Kasich takes this
Virginia -- probably Trump.

All depends. If Bush/Rubio has knocked the other out, they may win VA, and possibly MA/VT (Kasich will be last of the three Republicans in SC and NV, which should to some extent blunt his momentum). AR is a possibility for Rubio if he wins out, I think, since I think Huckabee will endorse him and that could carry some weight. The above were my votes, though. If Bush/Rubio are both still in, which is likely, neither will make much headway.
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sportydude
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« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2016, 06:25:48 PM »
Quote from: ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ on February 11, 2016, 06:16:27 PM
According to the GOP website (which is actually quite nice), Wyoming won't be holding any sort of presidential preference vote this year. However, I guess it would be interesting to predict who wins the conventions.

Oh well.

But according to this site, the Wyoming caucus takes place on Super Tuesday; and Dave Leip is always right. ALWAYS!
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2016, 06:26:06 PM »
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say every southern state except for Texas is going to go for Trump, Alaska will go for Cruz; Trump will run the board everywhere else
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2016, 06:50:01 PM »
Oklahoman here - Our state will probably be the biggest toss-up between Cruz and TRUMP. TRUMP appeals to a lot of the rowdy Republicans we have here, but Cruz is a best fit for the state overall. I could also see Bush taking a surprisingly strong third, since the political establishment here has people like Lankford and Inhofe, who are both very conservative but turned off by people like Cruz and TRUMP.
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« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2016, 07:11:56 PM »
Hard to predict these before South Carolina and Nevada, but here's my best guess...

Alabama: Trump
Alaska: Cruz
Arkansas: Cruz
Colorado: Cruz
Georgia: Trump
Massachusetts: Trump
Minnesota: Cruz
Oklahoma: Trump
Tennessee: Cruz
Texas: Cruz
Vermont: Kasich
Virginia: Trump
Wyoming: Trump
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RI
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« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2016, 07:16:08 PM »
Quote from: sportydude on February 11, 2016, 06:25:48 PM
Quote from: ͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔ on February 11, 2016, 06:16:27 PM
According to the GOP website (which is actually quite nice), Wyoming won't be holding any sort of presidential preference vote this year. However, I guess it would be interesting to predict who wins the conventions.

Oh well.

But according to this site, the Wyoming caucus takes place on Super Tuesday; and Dave Leip is always right. ALWAYS!

Colorado, Wyoming, and North Dakota are not holding preference votes during their precinct caucuses this year for the GOP.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2016, 09:46:08 PM »
Cruz: AK, AR, CO, OK, TX, WY
Trump: AL, GA, TN
Kasich- MA, VT, VA, MN
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2016, 10:05:46 PM »
Trump will win Massachusetts and Vermont beyond all doubt, probably Virginia, Alabama and Georgia. But Cruz will win Texas just depends if he gets 50.1 and more than likely Oklahoma, Colorado, Minnesota and Alaska but it all depends on South Carolina and Nevada.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2016, 10:45:43 PM »
Alabama- Trump
Alaska- Trump
Arkansas- Trump
Colorado- Trump
Georgia- Trump
Massachusetts- Kasich
Minnesota- Kasich
Oklahoma- Trump
Tennessee- Trump
Texas- Cruz
Vermont- Kasich
Virginia- Rubio
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2016, 11:09:23 PM »
Come on people the only ones winning states on ST will be Cruz and Trump, I will accept my accolades when Trump sweeps the board except for Texas.
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