Bernie could win New York
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Author Topic: Bernie could win New York  (Read 5916 times)
Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« on: February 11, 2016, 07:44:28 PM »

Upstate New York has a lot of environmentalist and progressive activist types, the same people who went for Zephyr Teachout in 2014 plus Bernie will win the college towns and although Hillary might have a slight advantage with the machines in NYC I think Bernie has a reasonable shot at winning Brooklyn with his home borough advantage, Queens as well as there's been a lot of hipster spillover there in recent years though Hillary probably wins Manhattan, The Bronx and Staten Island.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2016, 07:46:19 PM »

Yeah, no. The corrupt Clinton/Cuomo machine is too strong to overcome.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2016, 07:48:09 PM »

Yeah, no. The corrupt Clinton/Cuomo machine is too strong to overcome.
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2016, 07:50:18 PM »

The election is not until April 19 - that's an eternity away from now in politics.  Sanders might not even be in the race at that time.

And it's all fun and games for Bernie in Brooklyn until the borough's African Americans break heavily for Clinton and the ultra-orthodox Jewish registered Democrats in the borough vote en masse for Clinton by a 95-5 margin, offsetting and outnumbering the hipster vote.  Clinton has good relations with many ultra orthodox Jewish communities, dating back from when she was a Senator from New York.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2016, 07:52:00 PM »

Live in Brooklyn. It could happen. High hipster turn out. Low Black turnout. General opposition the Cuomo/Democratic establishment, as seen with the election of de Blasio and the strong Teachout campaign.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2016, 07:52:06 PM »

He do about a 50/50 job in upstate only to get destroyed in NYC
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2016, 07:58:05 PM »

Live in Brooklyn. It could happen. High hipster turn out. Low Black turnout. General opposition the Cuomo/Democratic establishment, as seen with the election of de Blasio and the strong Teachout campaign.

Cuomo won the 2014 Democratic Primary in Brooklyn 67-29.  Teachout did worse in Brooklyn than in the rest of the state.  The Democratic machine rules Brooklyn with an iron fist.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2016, 07:59:18 PM »

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2016, 08:02:11 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2016, 08:14:11 PM by Lief 🐋 »

Sure, if everyone in the state outside of Williamsburg, Park Slope and Lower Manhattan forgets to vote. Roll Eyes

edit: And when I say Lower Manhattan I'm obviously not including the Financial District and Chinatown.
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2016, 08:08:47 PM »

Sure, if everyone in the state outside of Williamsburg, Park Slope and Lower Manhattan forgets to vote. Roll Eyes

Williamsburg has changed, it's all yuppies and bankers living there these days. She's more likely to win there but lose Bushwick and Ridgewood.
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The Free North
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« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2016, 08:19:25 PM »

Sure, if everyone in the state outside of Williamsburg, Park Slope and Lower Manhattan forgets to vote. Roll Eyes

edit: And when I say Lower Manhattan I'm obviously not including the Financial District and Chinatown.

Wonder who the Upper West/East sides vote for in a Clinton/Sanders matchup. Probably splits down age lines again. A lot of the old money/old jewish communities are more mainstream Hillary type people while Sanders could do well with the younger liberals in Manhattan.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2016, 08:28:07 PM »

Sure, if everyone in the state outside of Williamsburg, Park Slope and Lower Manhattan forgets to vote. Roll Eyes

edit: And when I say Lower Manhattan I'm obviously not including the Financial District and Chinatown.

Wonder who the Upper West/East sides vote for in a Clinton/Sanders matchup. Probably splits down age lines again. A lot of the old money/old jewish communities are more mainstream Hillary type people while Sanders could do well with the younger liberals in Manhattan.

I think Clinton should win most of the UWS/UES pretty easily. I'd expect she'd win the areas that Quinn won in the 2013 primary.

It's important to remember that the New York primary is very closed. The deadline for changing your registration was something like last November. Anecdotally, a lot of the young people I know that live here are not even registered to vote here, even the ones that have "permanently" moved here and graduated from college, etc.
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cxs018
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« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2016, 08:31:02 PM »

Lief is correct here. The deadline to register as a Democrat was before the first Democratic debate. Sanders needs to improve with Democrats first.
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2016, 08:39:28 PM »

It's important to remember that the New York primary is very closed. The deadline for changing your registration was something like last November. Anecdotally, a lot of the young people I know that live here are not even registered to vote here, even the ones that have "permanently" moved here and graduated from college, etc.

The deadline to change parties may have been last year, but there is still time for new voters to register for the first time and vote in the primaries.  That deadline is March 25.

But, yes, the New York primaries are ultra-closed and the machine candidate usually wins, especially on the Democratic side.
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Pyro
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« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2016, 08:43:10 PM »

Clinton has the best chance win NY today, but it's a long way till April.
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madelka
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« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2016, 11:59:01 PM »

In what universe?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2016, 12:03:23 AM »

I could see him dominating upstate New York like Teachout did but that's about it.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2016, 12:14:04 AM »
« Edited: February 12, 2016, 12:23:16 AM by King of Kensington »

Wonder who the Upper West/East sides vote for in a Clinton/Sanders matchup. Probably splits down age lines again. A lot of the old money/old jewish communities are more mainstream Hillary type people while Sanders could do well with the younger liberals in Manhattan.

Are white Manhattanites actually that left-wing, or are they mostly "social liberals"?  

What's the ratio of business-oriented professionals to "creative class" professionals and educators in Manhattan?  Brooklyn?

In Brooklyn, I presume that Blacks are the plurality of Democratic primary voters.
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cwt
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« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2016, 12:16:48 AM »

The black vote is the wildcard, IMO.

Sanders is perfectly capable of winning it, and that would change everything (including NY, of course).
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2016, 12:31:49 AM »

I can see him winning only the districts that include Albany, that big one up near the border with Canada and the one that includes Ithaca.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2016, 12:58:29 AM »
« Edited: February 12, 2016, 01:00:52 AM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Sure, if everyone in the state outside of Williamsburg, Park Slope and Lower Manhattan forgets to vote. Roll Eyes

edit: And when I say Lower Manhattan I'm obviously not including the Financial District and Chinatown.

You're being too generous to Bernie, I doubt that he'll do much better than break even in Park Slope.

I'd expect him to do better than expected in some of the gentrifying neighborhoods, where white gentrifier turnout might outpace Black turnout. Maybe he could come close to winning Bushwick or "Bed-stuy"?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2016, 01:03:41 AM »

Yeah... no.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2016, 01:08:40 AM »

Wonder who the Upper West/East sides vote for in a Clinton/Sanders matchup. Probably splits down age lines again. A lot of the old money/old jewish communities are more mainstream Hillary type people while Sanders could do well with the younger liberals in Manhattan.

Are white Manhattanites actually that left-wing, or are they mostly "social liberals"?  

What's the ratio of business-oriented professionals to "creative class" professionals and educators in Manhattan?  Brooklyn?

In Brooklyn, I presume that Blacks are the plurality of Democratic primary voters.

Manhattan is filled with "creative class" professionals but they tend to be wealthy or upper middle class and, thus, not all that amenable to Sanders' message, which is partially why the reaction to his campaign from the New Yorker or the Atlantic has been one of bafflement/bemusement. It's noteworthy that venerable publications that are read by liberals seem to be "in the tank" for Hillary Clinton, even while they publish great in-depth articles about social problems that Bernie discusses. There's no reason to believe that the wealthiest "creative class" types, who tend to be left-leaning through the West, would break for Bernie, who if he was running elsewhere, would be red and not green.

I imagine that large swathes of New York might be more amenable to Bernie than we might think but they're probably in unexpected quarters of the city. If someone knew where so-called "gentrifiers" live/tend to live or where lower middle class/middle class creative class types tend to live, I think that's where Bernie would find his support imo.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2016, 01:18:21 AM »

There's certain areas in Queens that might be pretty strong for Bernie. The problem for him is that most areas where he'd do well are lumped in with areas he'll get destroyed in in the congressional districts. Park Slope for example is in a black majority district. Certain neighborhoods in Brooklyn are lumped in with the State Island district, which is a problem for him because most Democrats in Staten Island are on the heavily minority North Shore.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #24 on: February 12, 2016, 01:18:54 AM »

   I would think that there are a fair amount of New Yorkers who will be impacted by his tax hike proposals, for a few the income tax, capital gain tax and social security tax hikes, for more the trading tax  which could really impact the financial industry.
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