Bernie could win New York

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Maybe he could do relatively well in those counties that border Vermont, but not much more.  He might win Tompkins county, since it went 57%-39% to Obama in the 2008 primary. 

[Asian Nazi]

lol

Keep dreaming, Sandernistas.

[Xing]

Eh, he won't win New York, but I could see him doing about as well, if not slightly better than Obama did. It's not like he'd need New York to win the nomination anyway (yes, I know it's not likely he'll win, but still.)

[andrew_c]

New York is a Hillary stronghold.  Bernie has no chance of winning there unless Hillary is losing badly nationwide.

[RaphaelDLG]

He "could win" the state that she won in landslide as Senator twice?!?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He "could win" the state that she won in landslide as Senator twice?!?

Winning by 11 points while Gore wins by 25 isn't exactly a landslide.

And anyone could have landslided as a Democrat in New York in 2006. In fact, the Comptroller landslided despite clearly being about to be convicted of felony corruption.

[DarkandStormy]

As a native NYer and living in one of the most affluent neighborhoods in Brooklyn - it will overwhelmingly be Hillary. Her campaign HQ are in BK and most importantly the primary is all the way in April.

[Progressive]

OK so here's the deal on how NY would work.

Bernie would do well upstate, in counties where Zephyr Teachout beat Cuomo in the primary. There is a lot of frustration with the status quo there and many of the folks there are similar in mindset to places like Vermont and Western Mass.

Bernie would do well in parts of Brooklyn and Manhattan that are YUPPIE white progressive (EX: parts of Lower Manhattan; Greenpoint, Brooklyn; etc).

But keep in mind NY is still largely machine and identity politics, and I expect Hillary's endorsements to go hard for her in April.

[Averroës Nix]

FiveThirtyEight's "Facebook primary" numbers were a pretty reliable predictor of Sanders' performance by county in New Hampshire. If you deduct 20 percentage points from his two-way share of FB likes with Clinton, and you're within ~2 points of his actual result in every county.

Whether this dynamic will hold up in later primary states that don't get the same kind of treatment remains to be seen, and there's no accounting for movement in the weeks just before the vote, obviously. Nevertheless, here's what we get if we apply the same rule to NYS:


Color categories represent 10-point intervals. Sanders counties are green, Clinton counties are red.

As impressive as this looks for Sanders (and it is, to be clear, an over-optimistic portrait), over two-thirds of ballots cast in the 2008 Democratic primary were in New York City, Long Island, or Westchester County. Excluding the counties containing the three largest cities - Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse - Upstate New York was responsible for less than one-fifth of Democratic primary votes. The result, based on county-level turnout during the 2008 primaries, would be:

52.1%   Clinton   (~985k votes)
47.9%   Sanders (~905k votes)

That would be a shocking number, and "the machine" will undoubtedly keep Clinton well above 55% at a minimum. It's also worth keeping in mind that in New York State we only have "elections" in the loosest sense of the word. (e.g. In 2008, votes for Obama were literally not even recorded in many majority-black precincts. This isn't a Clinton thing, it's a New York State thing).

[IceSpear]

Sure, he could win it. If Hillary drops dead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Put simply if Andrew Cuomo couldn't be beaten in New York, there's no way Bernie's winning it.

[Figueira]

The election is not until April 19 - that's an eternity away from now in politics.  Sanders might not even be in the race at that time.

And it's all fun and games for Bernie in Brooklyn until the borough's African Americans break heavily for Clinton and the ultra-orthodox Jewish registered Democrats in the borough vote en masse for Clinton by a 95-5 margin, offsetting and outnumbering the hipster vote.  Clinton has good relations with many ultra orthodox Jewish communities, dating back from when she was a Senator from New York.

This is the first I've heard of this. Why do the orthodox Jews love Clinton so much?

[Torie]

The election is not until April 19 - that's an eternity away from now in politics.  Sanders might not even be in the race at that time.

And it's all fun and games for Bernie in Brooklyn until the borough's African Americans break heavily for Clinton and the ultra-orthodox Jewish registered Democrats in the borough vote en masse for Clinton by a 95-5 margin, offsetting and outnumbering the hipster vote.  Clinton has good relations with many ultra orthodox Jewish communities, dating back from when she was a Senator from New York.

This is the first I've heard of this. Why do the orthodox Jews love Clinton so much?

Among other things, she would be more reliable on matters relating to Israel.

[Asian Nazi]

This is the first I've heard of this. Why do the orthodox Jews love Clinton so much?

For the same reasons why essentially every other ethnic and religious minority in the Democrat coalition do.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Put simply if Andrew Cuomo couldn't be beaten in New York, there's no way Bernie's winning it.

This.

[Averroës Nix]

Put simply if Andrew Cuomo couldn't be beaten in New York, there's no way Bernie's winning it.

I agree with your conclusion - Clinton will win New York, and probably by a wide margin, because she holds important structural advantages within the state - but this is not a good comparison: If Cuomo had faced a genuinely organized primary opponent rather than a liberal insurgent with practically zero name recognition and no real campaign infrastructure, he may not have won.

Of course, that was never going to happen, for obvious reasons, and that is why Cuomo couldn't be beaten.

[LLR]

This is the first I've heard of this. Why do the orthodox Jews love Clinton so much?

For the same reasons why essentially every other ethnic and religious minority in the Democrat coalition do.

Even though Sanders is Jewish?

[Asian Nazi]

This is the first I've heard of this. Why do the orthodox Jews love Clinton so much?

For the same reasons why essentially every other ethnic and religious minority in the Democrat coalition do.

Even though Sanders is Jewish?

Orthodox Jews wouldn't consider Sanders as Jewish