Nevada Democratic Caucus Result

[Mr. Morden]

Will they actually have vote totals or are they stupid like Iowa

They're stupid like Iowa.  Here's an explanation of the 2008 Democratic process in Nevada, which as I understand is basically the same as the 2016 process:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_Democratic_caucuses,_2008#Results

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[Mike Thick]

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn.

I think there's a pill that can help you with that.  Or maybe a 12 step program.

I'm too far gone, friend. First it was just ARG, now it's Gravis, Zogby, Reuters, even Overtime. All of them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Will they actually have vote totals or are they stupid like Iowa

They're stupid like Iowa.  Here's an explanation of the 2008 Democratic process in Nevada, which as I understand is basically the same as the 2016 process:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_Democratic_caucuses,_2008#Results

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Even worse, Nevada didn't report by congressional district in 2008, and the estimates of national delegates was wrong, Obama ended up winning them despite losing the state.

[Bigby]

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

How?

[Eraserhead]

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

I'd prefer an actual poll as opposed to imaginary numbers.

[Mr. Morden]

As a followup to my post about the Nevada Democratic caucus process, for the benefit of those of you not following Erc's delegate thread, here's what he says about the process there:

Voter Eligibility

Only registered Democrats may vote in the caucus, though voters may reaffiliate as Democrats on the day.

At the Caucus

Nevada is a caucus state, just like Iowa, and it works in much the same fashion (though one distinction is that those who voted for viable candidates are not allowed to recaucus; this diminishes the possibility of weird tactical voting for Uncommitted).  Each precinct elects some number of delegates to a County Convention.  These are allocated among the candidates receiving 15% support in each precinct (or higher in precincts with a small number of delegates).  As in Iowa, voters supporting a candidate which does not meet the threshold may recaucus to support a different candidate.

The numbers reported to the media at the end of the day will be quite literally the number of delegates to County Conventions won by each candidate.  The apportionment favors the smaller, rural counties over the larger ones--i.e. Clark, Washoe, Carson City, Douglas, Lyon, Nye, and Elko will be slightly underrepresented, though they will obviously still dominate proceedings.  Extremely small precincts are also favored.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

I'd prefer an actual poll as opposed to imaginary numbers.

We'd do imaginary numbers, but that would be too complex, so we're keeping it real.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

I'd prefer an actual poll as opposed to imaginary numbers.

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

I'd prefer an actual poll as opposed to imaginary numbers.

Ya know, Overtime has been... actually pretty good in both of the first two contests, unless you want to kill them for the IA GOP caucus which even Selzer got wrong.  So who the hell knows?  Wasn't PPP a newbie on the scene in 2008, and pretty much torn to shreds around here due to that D next to the name, but turned out to be really good?  Nevada, or any MST state for that matter, isn't nor has ever been what one would call "Clinton-country".  And wouldn't the Dem electorate in NV skew younger?  I don't think 49-45 Clinton is terribly far off from reality.  I'd going to bullish and say it's quite close to reality. 

[Flake]

I think Bernie has a fantastic Nevada operation and will perform very well on caucus day, winning narrowly. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

I'd prefer an actual poll as opposed to imaginary numbers.

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

I'd prefer an actual poll as opposed to imaginary numbers.

Ya know, Overtime has been... actually pretty good in both of the first two contests, unless you want to kill them for the IA GOP caucus which even Selzer got wrong.  So who the hell knows?  Wasn't PPP a newbie on the scene in 2008, and pretty much torn to shreds around here due to that D next to the name, but turned out to be really good?  Nevada, or any MST state for that matter, isn't nor has ever been what one would call "Clinton-country".  And wouldn't the Dem electorate in NV skew younger?  I don't think 49-45 Clinton is terribly far off from reality.  I'd going to bullish and say it's quite close to reality.  

No, this isn't Overtime. They're too slow. Undertime gets results quick. Real quick.

[Eraserhead]

I still haven't seen any evidence that suggests that Overtime is a real pollster.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I still haven't seen any evidence that suggests that Overtime is a real pollster.

Do they release crosstabs, methodology, anything? 

[MT Treasurer]

NV is a must-win for Sanders, but I think Clinton wins by 8 or so. I think NV will be her comeback state.

[Mr. Morden]

NV is a must-win for Sanders, but I think Clinton wins by 8 or so. I think NV will be her comeback state.

How many angry women tend to caucus in Nevada?

[The Other Castro]

NV is a must-win for Sanders, but I think Clinton wins by 8 or so. I think NV will be her comeback state.

I don't know if it's a must win, but he needs to at least make it pretty close.

[MT Treasurer]

NV is a must-win for Sanders, but I think Clinton wins by 8 or so. I think NV will be her comeback state.

How many angry women tend to caucus in Nevada?

Idk, probably too many. Don't think they will be a factor in NV, though.

[psychprofessor]

This is going to be close - but they will both end up with the same amount of delegates. In 2008, Clinton won the state but Obama gained more delegates.

According to the 2008 entrance poll, the electorate was 80% DEM; 15% IND and 4% REP.

The racial breakdown was 65% white, 15% AA and 15% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Other. I think this is pretty reasonable to assume in 2016 - roughly 2/3 white and 1/3 non-white.

From the last poll from Overtime, Clinton was running 70/30 with AA and 60/40 with Hispanics. That seems reasonable as of now - I think this really depends on whether Sanders makes inroads. I would expect Clinton to hit him on his vote against comp immigration reform and highlight her endorsements from Dreamers. But I think this state can go either way - the caucus procedure is just too funky to predict.

[Trapsy]

[Mr. Morden]

NV is a must-win for Sanders, but I think Clinton wins by 8 or so. I think NV will be her comeback state.

How many angry women tend to caucus in Nevada?

Idk, probably too many. Don't think they will be a factor in NV, though.

It won't be the angry women, but the wise Latinas, who will win it for Clinton.

[RBH]

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

How?

Rubio lived in Nevada for 6 years as a child. So, if he's gonna do well anywhere this month, it should be Nevada.

That being said, Overtime probably isn't real.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Some Nevada polls would be great.

What are you talking about? We have Gravis and Overtime.

I'm seriously craving some ARG rn. Don't know if they poll Nevada, but the entertainment factor would multiply by ten if they started.

You're in luck, we have a new poll out. The results came in quickly because it's an Undertime Politics poll.

Clinton 49
Sanders 45

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 14
Bush 9
Carson 6
Kasich 4

How?

Rubio lived in Nevada for 6 years as a child. So, if he's gonna do well anywhere this month, it should be Nevada.

That being said, Overtime probably isn't real.

jfern's post said Undertime, not Overtime. I'm confident (or at least more than I am in Overtime) that jfern pulled it out of... thin air... as a joke.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This is going to be close - but they will both end up with the same amount of delegates. In 2008, Clinton won the state but Obama gained more delegates.

According to the 2008 entrance poll, the electorate was 80% DEM; 15% IND and 4% REP.

The racial breakdown was 65% white, 15% AA and 15% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Other. I think this is pretty reasonable to assume in 2016 - roughly 2/3 white and 1/3 non-white.

From the last poll from Overtime, Clinton was running 70/30 with AA and 60/40 with Hispanics. That seems reasonable as of now - I think this really depends on whether Sanders makes inroads. I would expect Clinton to hit him on his vote against comp immigration reform and highlight her endorsements from Dreamers. But I think this state can go either way - the caucus procedure is just too funky to predict.

Jon Ralston predicts that more than 40% of caucusgoers will be minorities this time, which makes his assertion that the Clinton campaign is in panic mode somewhat mystifying. If indeed there is such a surge in Hispanics and blacks then she will have a relatively easy win.

[Shadows]

This is going to be close - but they will both end up with the same amount of delegates. In 2008, Clinton won the state but Obama gained more delegates.

According to the 2008 entrance poll, the electorate was 80% DEM; 15% IND and 4% REP.

The racial breakdown was 65% white, 15% AA and 15% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Other. I think this is pretty reasonable to assume in 2016 - roughly 2/3 white and 1/3 non-white.

From the last poll from Overtime, Clinton was running 70/30 with AA and 60/40 with Hispanics. That seems reasonable as of now - I think this really depends on whether Sanders makes inroads. I would expect Clinton to hit him on his vote against comp immigration reform and highlight her endorsements from Dreamers. But I think this state can go either way - the caucus procedure is just too funky to predict.

Jon Ralston predicts that more than 40% of caucusgoers will be minorities this time, which makes his assertion that the Clinton campaign is in panic mode somewhat mystifying. If indeed there is such a surge in Hispanics and blacks then she will have a relatively easy win.

There is potentially a decline or status quo with blacks & a surge among Hispanics & ground reports suggests Sanders is doing well with Hispanics especially young Latinos.

I predicted weeks back that Sanders would atleast tie the hispanic votes if he does well in NH & Iowa, it is probably the main reason why Hillary is worried

[defe07]

I predict either a slight Bernie win or a dead heat a la Iowa.

[RI]

At this point, it would only be fair for Sanders to eke out a tiny win so that, going into Super Tuesday, both Clinton and Sanders have a narrow win and a 60%+ win.