Nevada Democratic Caucus Result

[DrScholl]

Nevada is a closed caucus, so Clinton will win. Sanders could only manage to tie among Democrats in New Hampshire, so they aren't his best group.

[Shadows]

Nevada is a closed caucus, so Clinton will win. Sanders could only manage to tie among Democrats in New Hampshire, so they aren't his best group.

He won by 4% after Clinton narrowly won Iowa & the entire establishment including NH Senator Shaheen were campaigning against him

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Nevada is a closed caucus, so Clinton will win. Sanders could only manage to tie among Democrats in New Hampshire, so they aren't his best group.

Same day registration.

[Joe Republic]

So far I've had probably about thirty phone calls from the Hillary campaign, and the other day I got a text message from somebody I don't know asking if I was #feeling the bern yet.  The next week is going to be super fun.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So far I've had probably about thirty phone calls from the Hillary campaign, and the other day I got a text message from somebody I don't know asking if I was #feeling the bern yet.  The next week is going to be super fun.

Hey Joe, you think Reid will help Hillary with his machine or will he just sit this out?

[Torie]

My guess, is that NV is going to feel the Bern. But it is just a guess.

[Joe Republic]

So far I've had probably about thirty phone calls from the Hillary campaign, and the other day I got a text message from somebody I don't know asking if I was #feeling the bern yet.  The next week is going to be super fun.

Hey Joe, you think Reid will help Hillary with his machine or will he just sit this out?

Reid's machine only operates when his own name is on the ballot.

[Asian Nazi]

Clinton will probably win.  60%+ is definitely doable, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Sanders would need NH-esque numbers with whites to win.  That's just not happening imo.

[RI]

Sanders would need NH-esque numbers with whites to win.  That's just not happening imo.

Why not? Mountain West white Dems are really, really liberal.

[Asian Nazi]

Why not? Mountain West white Dems are really, really liberal.

Nevada whites were Clinton enough in 2008 for her to win, and this was with the African American vote going against her.  Sanders has a nonzero chance of winning but a lot of the posters here seem to just be drinking Kool-Aid.

[Beet]

Yeah but what was the basis of Clinton's non-black primary support in 08? She won working class voters because a lot of them saw Obama as a Lincoln-praising neo-liberal from blood red Kansas. Those same voters will go for Sanders over Clinton because he offered them more. How many make under $15 an hour?

They've got one candidate saying it'll happen, even if there's only a 10% chance. They've got another candidate saying it'll never happen, e.g. 0% chance. If you're making $11 an hour, which do you pick?

[Asian Nazi]

Yeah but what was the basis of Clinton's non-black primary support in 08? She won working class voters because a lot of them saw Obama as a Lincoln-praising neo-liberal from blood red Kansas.

Uh, wtf?

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The idea that Sanders is raking in white working class votes is unsubstantiated.  This is a generational struggle, and nothing else.  The advantage Sanders has with low-income whites is almost entirely a product of the age gap, i.e. younger voters tend to have lower incomes and also tend to support Sanders.  See also: the "marriage gap" where single voters were more likely to support Sanders.

We saw a similar age gap in 2008, with young voters supporting Obama, and this was coupled with similar income and marriage splits.  The difference is that Sanders, unlike Obama, doesn't have African Americans to bolster his numbers. 

[Senator-elect Spark]

Sanders will win but not by much

[Beet]

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Do you have any evidence that the polls showing Sanders winning lower income voters is entirely a product of the age effect? He won every demographic except those making over $200k/year in New Hampshire, e.g. the top 1%.

Even if he was only doing equally well as Clinton with working class whites, it would be amazing. Even since the hard hat rebellion in 1970, it has been an article of faith that the better you do among college students, the worse you do among the working class.

[Asian Nazi]

Do you have any evidence that the polls showing Sanders winning lower income voters is entirely a product of the age effect?

Simple math?  We won't know for sure unless exit polls get released which break down the vote by both age and income like they often do with age and race.  My conclusion is largely drawn from the fact that the income split is very small compared to the age split, and that younger voters tend to have much lower incomes than older ones.

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And how many under 30's (the core of the Sanders vote) are making over 200k a year?

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I thought Obama dispelled this particular fiction already.

[Beet]

No, Obama did worse among the working class. He only did better in the general.

This is quite remarkable. Liberal intellectuals rarely connect with the working class. Even Karl Marx didn't. In a way, it's the holy grail of the Left.

Sanders isn't winning because people see him as a better personality or he got a good news cycle or any nonsense like that. He's winning on the basis of deep historical / structural divides -- a contradiction in society, as a Marxist would put it. This is why Clinton's not going to turn it around simply by putting in a good debate performance or overperforming low expectations in Nevada.

[RI]

Most working class voters are voting for Trump, so I'd imagine whatever rump group leftover is more liberal than in 2008.

[Beet]

Most working class voters are voting for Trump, so I'd imagine whatever rump group leftover is more liberal than in 2008.

As of today, that literally is not true. Sanders got more working class white votes than Trump in the sum of the two states that voted so far.

[RI]

Most working class voters are voting for Trump, so I'd imagine whatever rump group leftover is more liberal than in 2008.

As of today, that literally is not true. Sanders got more working class white votes than Trump in the sum of the two states that voted so far.

How are you teasing that out of the exit polls? It's not like all whites who make before a certain threshold are "working class". In Iowa, at least, Trump's support was highly correlated with rates of typical working class employment.

[/]

Well, the new Nevada poll certainly seems to change the dynamics of this.

[/]

Nevada is a closed caucus, so Clinton will win. Sanders could only manage to tie among Democrats in New Hampshire, so they aren't his best group.

Same day registration.

Get Berned.

[This account no longer in use.]

Well, the new Nevada poll certainly seems to change the dynamics of this.

That new poll was very likely a junk poll.

[pho]

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 48%

Sanders could win, but Clinton has the non-white vote in the bag and I don't think Sanders has enough time to flip the state by making inroads there. If Clinton wins 40% or more of whites, it's over.

[Asian Nazi]

Well, the new Nevada poll certainly seems to change the dynamics of this.

junk poll!

[indysaff]

No idea yet, though I think Hillary still has an edge. If Sanders can bring out younger voters (first timers) in high numbers, then his chances improve. He can use same day registration to his advantage as well.