NV-TargetPoint Consulting/Washington Free Beacon: Sanders & Clinton tied at 45%

[Torie]

Here is the poll.

It does seem that Hillary does not have much of an Hispanic firewall. So that leaves the black firewall for her, which will be tested in SC. She might end up being in serious trouble in CA, although I suspect she will do well with the Asian vote, who might not be so keen on Bernie's left wing economics.

[mds32]

Here is the poll.

It does seem that Hillary does not have much of an Hispanic firewall. So that leaves the black firewall for her, which will be tested in SC. She might end up being in serious trouble in CA, although I suspect she will do well with the Asian vote, who might not be so keen on Bernie's left wing economics.

That is huge if it is true. We will need another poll to see if this can be backed up though.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Sexy poll!

Told ya.

EDIT: Sample size is pushing 1,300.  Dayum!  Loving that 25-9 Nevada focus group thrashing from last night even more.

[°Leprechaun]

If he does win, he'll have a week to close the gap in SC. SC will be interesting.

[psychprofessor]

Nevada will be close for a variety of reasons. I'm curious though, the cross tabs suggest 55% of electorate will be first time caucus goers? Is that accurate? Is Nevada that fluid where almost 3/5th's of the population are new, first time caucus goers?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If Sanders wins in Nevada, it'll add to his already big mo' he's getting from his 22 point win in New Hampshire.

[Sorenroy]

Poll of 1,236 Potential Caucus Goers

Topline: http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/nv-toplines.pdf

Crosstabs: http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/nv-crosstabs.pdf

As per CNN (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NVDEM) the sex and age of the groups seem about accurate. Weirdly no question on race though... The interesting thing is that this was asked only of registered voters, and Nevada allows for same day registration. If the Sanders team can field a strong enough ground game, they may be able to outperform by bringing in unregistereds/new voters.

Vote By Sex (as per crosstabs)

One person was ommited from this question, as such the sample size is 1,235 for sex.

Female:
Clinton — 48.4%
Sanders — 42.4%

Male:
Sanders — 49.4%
Clinton — 41.3%

They also Pressed Undecideds, asking which way do you lean? Without that question Clinton leads Sanders 42-41. All of the crosstabs I provide include the leaners in them (I did this myself ).

Vote By Age (as per crosstabs)

One person was added () somehow, so the sample size for this is 1,237 people.

18-29:
Sanders — 67.7%
Clinton — 19.5%

30-45:
Sanders — 51.6%
Clinton — 32.1%

45-65:
Clinton — 50.3%
Sanders — 41.7%

65+:
Clinton — 61.8%
Sanders — 34%

Odd that some of these overlap. I don't know why, but it shouldn't matter much.

Also, Sanders beats or ties Clinton in every lean group, no matter what age or sex. If this holds with those who still claim undecided after they ask which way you lean, it could mean a narrow Sanders win.

Edit: No idea what a GoVoter is though. Any ideas?

Also if you have some time to burn, look over the Topline document. It asks a lot of interesting questions.

[Tender Branson]

Oh no ! Bernie has no appeal among Blaxicasians !

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Oh no ! Bernie has no appeal among Blaxicasians !

JFC Tender stop using that term.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't doubt that it's close, but I'll wait for something a little more credible than a Free Beacon poll lol

[Mike Thick]

It's happening. I'm a little skeptical, though...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The last credible poll that came out of Nevada was CNN's poll in early October with Clinton at 50% and Sanders at 34% for reference.

[Tender Branson]

Has anyone else noticed that Bernie seems to get most of the undecideds so far ?

In IA, the polling average was about Hillary+3 and it ended as a tie - suggesting that Bernie got most undecideds.

And in NH, the polling average was also slightly pro-Hillary, with Sanders outperforming the polls.

If there's a polling tie in NV, this is good news for Bernie.

[Shadows]

Poll of 1,236 Potential Caucus Goers

Topline: http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/nv-toplines.pdf

Crosstabs: http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/nv-crosstabs.pdf

As per CNN (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NVDEM) the sex and age of the groups seem about accurate. Weirdly no question on race though... The interesting thing is that this was asked only of registered voters, and Nevada allows for same day registration. If the Sanders team can field a strong enough ground game, they may be able to outperform by bringing in unregistereds/new voters.

Vote By Sex (as per crosstabs)

One person was ommited from this question, as such the sample size is 1,235 for sex.

Female:
Clinton — 48.4%
Sanders — 42.4%

Male:
Sanders — 49.4%
Clinton — 41.3%

They also Pressed Undecideds, asking which way do you lean? Without that question Clinton leads Sanders 42-41. All of the crosstabs I provide include the leaners in them (I did this myself ).

Vote By Age (as per crosstabs)

One person was added () somehow, so the sample size for this is 1,237 people.

18-29:
Sanders — 67.7%
Clinton — 19.5%

30-45:
Sanders — 51.6%
Clinton — 32.1%

45-65:
Clinton — 50.3%
Sanders — 41.7%

65+:
Clinton — 61.8%
Sanders — 34%

Odd that some of these overlap. I don't know why, but it shouldn't matter much.

Also, Sanders beats or ties Clinton in every lean group, no matter what age or sex. If this holds with those who still claim undecided after they ask which way you lean, it could mean a narrow Sanders win.

Edit: No idea what a GoVoter is though. Any ideas?

Also if you have some time to burn, look over the Topline document. It asks a lot of interesting questions.

I am a VISIONARY

Correctly predicted Iowa toss up

NH win by 18-22% depending on turnout

And I predicted 1 month back that the hispanic firewall will crack & Bernie could win Nevada.

Nevada is strange, old Latinos don't vote much & Bernie is connecting with the youth.

This will be huge if he can actually pull it off. He needs a very high turnout & a great ground game against the Clinton Machine & the Clinton camp is really strong

[Mehmentum]

My disappointment knows no bounds.

[Brittain33]

Skeptical of this poll for a few reasons having nothing to do with the top line numbers:

• Washington Free Bacon is a rightwing advocacy group like Breitbart or Newsmax and has an interest in promoting Sanders; this comes through in the article
• "But undecided caucusgoers and those who might change their mind say recent scandals involving Clinton make them significantly less likely to support her." So the poll primed voters with questions about "Hillary's recent scandals"

[Shadows]

In all seriousness, my analysis -

1 - This contains only Registered voters - Bernie is expected to win the majority of new registrations between now & caucus day (Or atleast a large chunk)

2 - Only 16% vote share of 18-29  age voters against 18% voting in Iowa (not very high)

3 - A huge , GIGANTIC 32% of the voters above the age of 65 - Seemed very unusual

4 - 59% of the voters are female - So no1 can blame of a sample benefiting Bernie

The demographic sample is incredibly favorable to Hillary. Noway 1 out of 3 voters will be above the age of 65.

If this poll is true, Bernie is likely leading by atleast 3-4% points

[Tender Branson]

Skeptical of this poll for a few reasons having nothing to do with the top line numbers:

• Washington Free Bacon is a rightwing advocacy group like Breitbart or Newsmax and has an interest in promoting Sanders; this comes through in the article
• "But undecided caucusgoers and those who might change their mind say recent scandals involving Clinton make them significantly less likely to support her." So the poll primed voters with questions about "Hillary's recent scandals"

No, if you actually read the toplines of the poll and what I have posted above re: undecided voters you would realize that this is not the case:

A) The horserace questions in the poll were asked before any mention of "Hillary scandals"
B) Even in IA and NH it looks like undecided voters broke strongly for Bernie

[Shadows]

Skeptical of this poll for a few reasons having nothing to do with the top line numbers:

• Washington Free Bacon is a rightwing advocacy group like Breitbart or Newsmax and has an interest in promoting Sanders; this comes through in the article
• "But undecided caucusgoers and those who might change their mind say recent scandals involving Clinton make them significantly less likely to support her." So the poll primed voters with questions about "Hillary's recent scandals"

Yes, read the questions, It has questions regarding Hillary's scandals & Clinton foundation n stuff. Leading questions & may influence.

But the sample size is large & demographic is very favorable to Hillary so I think it is fair to say whatever the result of the poll, Bernie has a significant support & Nevada is likely to be close

[DrScholl]

I've never heard of this firm and considering that it was commissioned by a right-wing source it is very sketchy. They have a reason to show Sanders competitive. If he was really that competitive, he wouldn't be faking endorsements in Nevada.

[Sorenroy]

In all seriousness, my analysis -

1 - This contains only Registered voters - Bernie is expected to win the majority of new registrations between now & caucus day (Or atleast a large chunk)

2 - Only 16% vote share of 18-29  age voters against 18% voting in Iowa (not very high)

3 - A huge , GIGANTIC 32% of the voters above the age of 65 - Seemed very unusual

4 - 59% of the voters are female - So no1 can blame of a sample benefiting Bernie

The demographic sample is incredibly favorable to Hillary. Noway 1 out of 3 voters will be above the age of 65.

If this poll is true, Bernie is likely leading by atleast 3-4% points

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NVDEM for information below.

1. I agree, like I said in my analysis.

2. Only 13% of voters in 2008 were between 18-29, so this actually shows an uptick in their numbers.

3. Again, this number is actually down from 36% in 2008.

4. This number (59-41) is actually exactly what it was in 2008.

While I would agree that if this poll is accurate, Sanders wins, I do so only on the basis that Sanders does better with every subgroup that is undecided, weather that be women, men, people between the age of 18-29, or people above the age of 65.

[Smash255]

Good poll for Sanders, with that being said the polling outfit is questionable and this is just one poll.  The extreme lack of polls in Nevada makes it really difficult to compare this to anything, but this is certainly good news for Sanders.

[Shadows]

In all seriousness, my analysis -

1 - This contains only Registered voters - Bernie is expected to win the majority of new registrations between now & caucus day (Or atleast a large chunk)

2 - Only 16% vote share of 18-29  age voters against 18% voting in Iowa (not very high)

3 - A huge , GIGANTIC 32% of the voters above the age of 65 - Seemed very unusual

4 - 59% of the voters are female - So no1 can blame of a sample benefiting Bernie

The demographic sample is incredibly favorable to Hillary. Noway 1 out of 3 voters will be above the age of 65.

If this poll is true, Bernie is likely leading by atleast 3-4% points

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NVDEM for information below.

1. I agree, like I said in my analysis.

2. Only 13% of voters in 2008 were between 18-29, so this actually shows an uptick in their numbers.

3. Again, this number is actually down from 36% in 2008.

4. This number (59-41) is actually exactly what it was in 2008.

While I would agree that if this poll is accurate, Sanders wins, I do so only on the basis that Sanders does better with every subgroup that is undecided, weather that be women, men, people between the age of 18-29, or people above the age of 65.

I did see that but I think the numbers will be higher. Latinos will vote one or other with Trump looming. I got ground reports that older Latinos don't vote much but the younger lot are very enthused.

2008 was very far back, I would hope there will be a more younger demographic this time compared with the appalling numbers in 08.

Anyways my prediction is we will have an Iowa like situation & it will be very close.

[Brittain33]

A) The horserace questions in the poll were asked before any mention of "Hillary scandals"
B) Even in IA and NH it looks like undecided voters broke strongly for Bernie

I think the poll may well be accurate... I don't really know. I do still feel that because the pollster is unproven and the sponsor clearly has an agenda, that shades it.

[Lyin' Steve]

Yeah, I don't buy this poll.  Right-wing talk radio and Fox News have been talking up Bernie big time, obviously they see their opportunity to really hurt Clinton.  This poll clearly used leading questions to push a Bernie victory.