Is SC a must-win for Cruz?
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  Is SC a must-win for Cruz?
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Author Topic: Is SC a must-win for Cruz?  (Read 3427 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: February 12, 2016, 02:30:08 PM »

Obviously if he loses it big he's done, but what about a narrow loss? Does the fact that he has a good organization already in the southern 3/1 states mean he can reasonably live without SC?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2016, 02:33:19 PM »

A narrow loss means SEC Tuesday is going to be a bloodbath (with the debates basically becoming a shouting match). A strong win means TRUMP will be playing defense. I do not think it is necessarily a MUST-win though.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2016, 02:36:01 PM »

A narrow loss means SEC Tuesday is going to be a bloodbath (with the debates basically becoming a shouting match). A strong win means TRUMP will be playing defense. I do not think it is necessarily a MUST-win though.

Pretty much this. Trump would have momentum going into Super Tuesday, which is critical for both of them.
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2016, 02:36:01 PM »

Cruz cannot be blown out, but a narrow defeat is an acceptable result. It also depends on the establishment results -- them continuing to beat each other up is the best result for him, especially since in the Upper Midwest voters may break Cruz in a Cruz/Trump battle if the establishment choices have all burned themselves out.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2016, 02:39:26 PM »

South Carolina is a must win only for Gilmore, Carson and perhaps even for Kasich (though a 2nd place would go a long way for him obviously). Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Bush will go on no matter what percentage of place they receive.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2016, 02:44:39 PM »

South Carolina is a must win only for Gilmore, Carson and perhaps even for Kasich (though a 2nd place would go a long way for him obviously). Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Bush will go on no matter what percentage of place they receive.

Eh... for Jeb I think he has to beat Marco Rubio in order to stay in the race. Otherwise I just see no other way forward.
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madelka
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« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2016, 02:46:30 PM »

Yes. Period.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2016, 02:49:19 PM »

South Carolina is a must win only for Gilmore, Carson and perhaps even for Kasich (though a 2nd place would go a long way for him obviously). Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Bush will go on no matter what percentage of place they receive.

Eh... for Jeb I think he has to beat Marco Rubio in order to stay in the race. Otherwise I just see no other way forward.

You forgot there's a word called money? His family is an enormous asset as well. It's just as much an asset as it's a gigantic road bump. It can take him to the greatest heights and the deepest depths. At least he has a reason for being - he has a ton of policy proposals and political experience, unlike Trump who's only thing to sell is how he is perhaps the most narcissistic person who ever lived on this planet. Apparently that's good enough for 33-50% of the Republican electorate.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2016, 02:49:31 PM »

It would be a big blow to Cruz. If he can't win in SC, where can he win? Alabama maybe? Mississippi? Not much.  And he won't be getting much support from supporters of other candidates.
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RI
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« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2016, 02:50:14 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2016, 02:52:59 PM by realisticidealist »

It would be a big blow to Cruz. If he can't win in SC, where can he win?

In the Mountain West where Trump is weak (unlike the South), presumably. Everywhere west of the MN-LA line that's holding a preference vote (i.e. not CO, WY, ND) except Nevada and Arizona are vulnerable for Trump.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2016, 02:50:57 PM »

No, but it would hurt if he lost.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2016, 02:52:09 PM »

It would be a big blow to Cruz. If he can't win in SC, where can he win? Alabama maybe? Mississippi? Not much.  And he won't be getting much support from supporters of other candidates.

Alabama and Mississippi are Trump's strong states. Arkansas and Oklahoma are the early ones I'm worried about. Tennessee and Virginia concern me more than AL/MS because I just don't know what to expect though I'm thinking Trump will live through them.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2016, 02:55:10 PM »

No but I think he'll win he has over 10,000 volunteers from SC and thousands in Camp Cruz, I think it'll be a good night for the Cruz Camp next Saturday.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2016, 03:05:36 PM »

Yes.  If he loses SC with all the money and organization he's put into it, he's going to get demolished in the rest of the south on Super Tuesday.  He might do well enough outside of the south to justify staying in the race, but I think it will be very difficult for him to beat Trump at that point.
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trickmind
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« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2016, 03:35:50 PM »

Yes.  If he loses SC with all the money and organization he's put into it, he's going to get demolished in the rest of the south on Super Tuesday.  He might do well enough outside of the south to justify staying in the race, but I think it will be very difficult for him to beat Trump at that point.

Yeah, Cruz's campaign is built for going to Cleveland, but if Trump romps him in the South on Super Tuesday, I don't see how he can go on. It's not like he's going to be able to compete with Trump in those WTA Blue states after that.

Cruz desperately needs a strong 2nd in SC at worst imo. If Cruz starts going hard after Rubio next week, that shows you his internals aren't looking good.
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2016, 03:39:09 PM »

Trump would beat Cruz 1 on 1 in blue states. Cruz is a horrible fit outside the south and caucuses.
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pho
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« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2016, 03:49:12 PM »

Trump would beat Cruz 1 on 1 in blue states. Cruz is a horrible fit outside the south and caucuses.

This raises a good point. Could Cruz win the nomination without winning any of the big states besides Texas?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: February 12, 2016, 03:49:53 PM »

It's not must win in the sense he'll drop out if he loses. But if he can't win SC then it's hard to see how we wins the nomination. TRUMP is really the only candidate that can afford to lose here, IMO, and still have a realistic chance at the nomination.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #18 on: February 12, 2016, 03:51:47 PM »

Trump would beat Cruz 1 on 1 in blue states. Cruz is a horrible fit outside the south and caucuses.

This raises a good point. Could Cruz win the nomination without winning any of the big states besides Texas?
I actually think that Cruz could win the west against Trump.
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Torie
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« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2016, 03:55:02 PM »

It's not must win in the sense he'll drop out if he loses. But if he can't win SC then it's hard to see how we wins the nomination. TRUMP is really the only candidate that can afford to lose here, IMO, and still have a realistic chance at the nomination.

So the race will be essentially over after the SC votes are counted, so says Lief. Whatever.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2016, 04:07:38 PM »

It's not must win in the sense he'll drop out if he loses. But if he can't win SC then it's hard to see how we wins the nomination. TRUMP is really the only candidate that can afford to lose here, IMO, and still have a realistic chance at the nomination.

So the race will be essentially over after the SC votes are counted, so says Lief. Whatever.

If TRUMP cannot be stopped in the part of the campaign where retail politics and ground game is most important, and where the focus is one state at a time, then I don't see how he can be stopped when multiple states are voting per day.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2016, 04:33:10 PM »

Not a must win (he needs at least a close second though), but he MUST do well on 3/1/16.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2016, 05:43:18 PM »

It's not must win in the sense he'll drop out if he loses. But if he can't win SC then it's hard to see how we wins the nomination. TRUMP is really the only candidate that can afford to lose here, IMO, and still have a realistic chance at the nomination.

So the race will be essentially over after the SC votes are counted, so says Lief. Whatever.

Yes, if we look at historic GOP races, the candidate that first won their second state always won the nomination and 2012 and 1976 were the only primaries where the winner in SC wasn't the eventual nominee. SC is the bellwether of the Republican presidential primaries.
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DarkandStormy
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« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2016, 02:57:37 AM »

I think personally he is running to be a supreme court justice. He knows that his eligibility is murky. Plus, he has a lot of baggage and is polarizing. He has raised of a ton of money. I think his wife will most likely be appointed to his senate seat should he be appointed to the court.
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Leinad
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« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2016, 03:57:49 AM »

No. He just has to stay in long enough for establishment voters to support him over trump

The establishment seems to prefer Trump to Cruz. Trump's more moderate and more willing to cut deals, Cruz, for better or worse, seems firmly committed to his conservative principles.
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