Generation Z begins to vote in 2020... how will that change things?

[Steam Boat Willie]

Based on trends it won't be good for Democrats.  Clinton did worse than Obama in 2012 amongst younger voters.  Also Obama lost the 18-20 age range. Things are looking bad for Democrats with new voters.  Keep in mind Democrats don't really have kids anymore either.

[Steam Boat Willie]

Clinton did worse than Obama in 2012 amongst younger voters.

The results are more nuanced than this. Yes, Clinton got 5% less among 18-29 year olds, but Trump also did 1% worse than Romney, which was already awful. 55-36 Clinton is pretty bad for Republicans. Further, Clinton actually did better among 18-24 year olds than she did with 25-29 yr olds. Overall, a 5% drop for Clinton isn't that significant long-term. If you have 15-20 years' worth of voters voting 55-35 Democrat, that's a huge problem for Republicans.

The more interesting results were on a state-by-state basis, which seems to have aligned with education like the broader electorate. WCW white Millennials and college educated Millennials had a huge split, which is kind of bad for Republicans considering that Millennials are better educated than previous generations and more educated people vote more. I don't see why this would sharply change with gen z people. If Democratic support drops with them, it's likely to be a slow erosion over years, in large part due to the racial composition, which makes it hard for a Republican to win them outright.

Also Obama lost the 18-20 age range. Things are looking bad for Democrats with new voters.  Keep in mind Democrats don't really have kids anymore either.

And those voters would have played a big role in the 18-24 bloc in this election, which showed strong support for Clinton. This means that if they did break heavily against Obama in 2012, they came back to Democrats in 2016.

As for your numbers, they weren't a problem in 2016 and shouldn't be in 2020 unless the numbers change in the Democrats' favor.  You have to remember Trump won the election despite a poor showing amongst the youth.  My point was the Democrats' fascination with the youth vote and demographics and how it doesn't really do anything for them.

[Steam Boat Willie]

My point was the Democrats' fascination with the youth vote and demographics and how it doesn't really do anything for them.

I'd have to disagree. The best short-term age group to have on your side in politics is the 50+ year olds, but long-term the best people to win over are young voters (18-29). That is the age at which many people begin to build a foundation for future political views/allegiances. There is enough data to show that people who grow up influenced heavily by one party or the other, usually under a successful/unsuccessful president, tends to vote in a similar fashion for decades or more. Greatest Gen was still voting Democratic in their old age, the Boomers/part of gen x were heavily influenced by Reagan, and younger gen x/Millennials have all trended dem since at least Bill Clinton's 2nd term.

Point being, that at least imo it is best to lock in voters young. Voters can effectively switch parties later in life but it usually takes a huge shock to the system or a very reliable erosion over time. With this in mind, it's worth noting that in 2020 the GOP will have 4 years less of older 65+ year olds to rely on for votes, and more heavily Democratic Millennials will be entering middle age and voting more consistently. It's the slow turn of generational replacement.

That's what I mean you sound just like any Democrat with hopes of winning which doesn't give much credibility.  What about the trends in MO that have made their way into MN, IA, and WI.  I don't hear Democrats trying to repair this but instead try to convince themselves that everything will be fine in the future.  That might be good for a peace of mind but in the long run you'll be out of seats everywhere except for NY, MA, and CA.  In fact one-third of your congressional Democrats come from only those three states.  How about the WV trend?  There's a reason your party used to win there but can't anymore and it's because not a single Democrat is in touch enough with the heart of America to understand that their party is perceived as anti-white.  The WV trend should've been noticed last year as having made its way into PA, OH, and MI.  Ohio was never even competitive.  Neither was Iowa.  Four years less of 65+ sounds like your party is celebrating the deaths of the elderly for the sake of political power.  It's saying things like that Virginia which lead many to believe that the Democrats are supporting sanctuary cities because the more whites who get killed, the better your party's odds are at the ballot box.