What would happen if Hillary Clinton were to be indicted?
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  What would happen if Hillary Clinton were to be indicted?
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Author Topic: What would happen if Hillary Clinton were to be indicted?  (Read 5583 times)
Senator Spark
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« on: February 14, 2016, 02:15:31 PM »

If she were forced to withdraw from the race due to a pending investigation of her emails, would that give other potential candidates incentive to jump into the race? Or would Sanders win the nomination automatically? Discuss.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2016, 02:46:01 PM »

Joe Biden to the rescue! It would be perfectly logic to have Joe Biden come into the contest as an alternative to Hillary and he has credentials as a true blue base Democrat....bye bye Bernie! What can Sanders say negatively about Joe...Joe is also Democratic establishment!
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LLR
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2016, 02:53:44 PM »

Joe Biden to the rescue! It would be perfectly logic to have Joe Biden come into the contest as an alternative to Hillary and he has credentials as a true blue base Democrat....bye bye Bernie! What can Sanders say negatively about Joe...Joe is also Democratic establishment!

No, John Kerry!
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MM876
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2016, 02:59:44 PM »

There would be a desperate scramble to replace her by the Democratic establishment, but between the time it takes to set up an entirely new campaign and the support the new candidate would have to build up overnight, Bernie would win the nomination.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2016, 03:13:24 PM »

Then Sanders would become presumptive nominee. For one, filing deadlines would prevent another candidate from accumulating enough delegates to win the nomination, even if the superdelegates heavily backed them. Secondly, even if a "savior" candidate like Biden or Kerry did get in, Sanders would just clean their clock anyway.
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angus
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2016, 03:33:14 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2016, 03:35:24 PM by angus »

If she were forced to withdraw from the race due to a pending investigation of her emails, would that give other potential candidates incentive to jump into the race? Or would Sanders win the nomination automatically? Discuss.

depends upon timing, doesn't it?  If it happens now, then there's a desperate scramble to find a suitable alternative to satisfy the right wing of the democratic party.  If it happens in the summer, then I think the specifics vary by state.  Generally the delegates are bound by law to vote on the first ballot for the candidate they were pledged to, but if the candidate formally drops out--which would be the case--then the delegates are released from obligation and they will be free to vote at will.  She could formally endorse some candidate but state laws generally do not require delegates to vote for that endorsed candidate.  In that case probably no candidate would have a majority of delegates going in to the convention.  Then again, she may not drop out if indicted.  In that case the DNC might decide that their nominee cannot be someone under indictment for violating federal law.  That would be a really interesting convention.  I assume that a draft-Biden faction, a pro-Sanders faction, and WeStandWithHillary faction would wage all-out war for the nomination, with delegates being confused about what they can or should do and Anderson Cooper and Shepperd Smith doing 24-hour vigils, excitedly reporting in their pajamas and stocking caps.  

Now, let's say she gets indicted after the democrat national convention, and for the sake of argument, let's say she has already been nominated.  What then?  I guess she could step down and endorse her running mate, who then chooses a new running mate.  I'd have to imagine any of these scenarios would ensure a Republican victory in November, no matter whom they nominate.

None of it is very likely.  The FBI is conducting an administrative, not criminal, review of her email server, and they have said it does not currently focus on Clinton personally.  That might conceivably lead to a criminal investigation, but they have had the server in their possession since July, and so far have taken no further steps to initiate a criminal investigation.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2016, 06:08:17 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2016, 06:10:21 PM by Averroës »

Asking only because the speculation might be amusing: What if she were indicted after winning the general election? I imagine that we'd then have the most toxic political environment since Watergate.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2016, 07:02:13 PM »

Probably this:

There would be a desperate scramble to replace her by the Democratic establishment, but between the time it takes to set up an entirely new campaign and the support the new candidate would have to build up overnight, Bernie would win the nomination.

In addition, hopefully HRC is shown to have clearly acted irresponsibly/negligently in her handling of sensitive materials on her private server (and as a result, she ends up in prison), but given her last name, I'm not holding my breath...
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2016, 07:04:26 PM »

Asking only because the speculation might be amusing: What if she were indicted after winning the general election? I imagine that we'd then have the most toxic political environment since Watergate.

Hmm. Interesting. Could she actually pardon herself? Maybe that's what she's working towards...
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2016, 11:01:41 PM »

Dropping out was just a minor blip on Martin O'Malley's road to the White House
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2016, 11:08:29 PM »

President-elect Joe Biden is sworn into office in January.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2016, 11:10:14 PM »

Dropping out was just a minor blip on Martin O'Malley's road to the White House
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2016, 09:34:16 AM »

Sorry, Dems, but if this happens, Sanders is your nominee, and you'll be pinning your hopes on a 74-year-old socialist who doesn't comb his hair.

You think Sanders supporters would go down quietly at a convention where their guy won the delegate majority but the establishment is trying to nominate someone else?
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angus
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2016, 12:04:25 PM »

Sorry, Dems, but if this happens, Sanders is your nominee, and you'll be pinning your hopes on a 74-year-old socialist who doesn't comb his hair.

Well, at least they're not pinning their hopes on a chain-smoking, 51-year-old socialist who can barely walk but who manages to engage in extra-marital affairs.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2016, 12:29:25 PM »

Sorry, Dems, but if this happens, Sanders is your nominee, and you'll be pinning your hopes on a 74-year-old socialist who doesn't comb his hair.

You think Sanders supporters would go down quietly at a convention where their guy won the delegate majority but the establishment is trying to nominate someone else?

This is why I quoted the mention of O'Malley - since he only suspended his campaign instead of actually withdrawing it, he won't be taken off any state ballots, and he met most of the filiing deadlines. He could easily re-enter, run as the "anti-socialist", and might even win.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2016, 01:48:35 PM »

TRUMP would end up as The Donald-in-chief.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2016, 03:25:25 PM »

Presumably in this outlandish scenario she would in desperation resort to the VINCE FOSTER solution against top Republicans, just like with Scalia (RIP).
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PeteB
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« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2016, 04:02:52 PM »

While I don't think she will be indicted, in that scenario Biden (or Kerry) jump in, O'Malley resurrects his candidacy and there is a royal mess between them and Sanders. Whatever ultimately happens in that scenario, the ensuing result is a GOP presidency.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2016, 05:52:14 PM »

Sorry, Dems, but if this happens, Sanders is your nominee, and you'll be pinning your hopes on a 74-year-old socialist who doesn't comb his hair.

You think Sanders supporters would go down quietly at a convention where their guy won the delegate majority but the establishment is trying to nominate someone else?

This is why I quoted the mention of O'Malley - since he only suspended his campaign instead of actually withdrawing it, he won't be taken off any state ballots, and he met most of the filiing deadlines. He could easily re-enter, run as the "anti-socialist", and might even win.
Logically, O'Malley would be the answer because of the filling deadlines, but the DNC could change their own rules (this would be tricky state by state I know)... That would typically outrage people affiliated with a non-corrupt organization, but we are talking about the democrats.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2016, 05:59:01 PM »

The idea of Martin O'Malley waging a successful challenge to Sanders is comical. It's as if people have this idea in their head that 90% of Hillary supporters only support her because she's deemed "the establishment pick" or something and would seamlessly transition to a horrible candidate like O'Malley or Kerry the second Debbie Wasserman Schultz gave the signal. That's not how the world works. A sizable chunk if not a majority of Hillary supporters would move to Sanders over any other candidate.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: February 15, 2016, 06:39:51 PM »

^^ Most Hillary supporters probably hate the idea of socialism.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #21 on: February 15, 2016, 07:00:33 PM »

She wouldn't drop out. It wouldn't have much effect on the race.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #22 on: February 15, 2016, 07:42:56 PM »

She wouldn't drop out. It wouldn't have much effect on the race.
The timeline probably wouldn't work out this way, but imagine the split screen of her in court as a defendant and Bernie at a huge rally.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2016, 07:54:25 PM »

She wouldn't drop out. It wouldn't have much effect on the race.

LOLOLOLOLOLOL. An indictment by the FBI could go one of two ways.

1: Clinton receives a subpoena - Obviously a terrible situation. For now, Clinton's lack of honesty can only hurt her so much, as people who actually want a democrat to win the general may want more reason than a collection of focus-group-tested flip-flops to back a literal socialist who is perceived as unelectable. However, with Clinton actually being called into court, not only would her honesty ratings plummet even more, she'd now have a YUGE "CRIMINAL!" sticker on her back. Reid can squeal about "innocent until proven guilty" all he wants, but recent history shows that the electorate doesn't really think that way. Indictment (especially with a full subpoena) equals politically dead, at least for the cycle, unless your name is Michael Grimm. Just ask the ghost of Ted Stevens, John Walsh, or Ed Fitzgerald (yes, I know the last one isn't a perfect fit, but still). Assuming the courts didn't force Clinton out of the race, her polls would plummet and plummet fast.

2: Obama pardons Clinton: Obviously Clinton can stay in, but it would still act as a lesser version of 1: and she would drop significantly in the polls. However, if she can successfully cast the FBI as a partisan organization (far easier said than done), it's possible she could still slip through, though I imagine there would be pressure for her to drop out and let O'Malley try instead.
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