French referendum: analysis and consequences

[Beet]

Discuss possible impacts of today's vote. I guess Mr Blair has dodged a bullet here.

[Beet]

Nobody is interested in this? the results page seems pretty active. What do people think?

[MHS2002]

What's the website to find out the results?

[WMS]

Well, I don't think the U.K. would be agreeing to this new EU Constitution in any event, regardless of how France voted. I have to agree with Stratfor: once France saw that it wasn't going to be able to use the EU to become a superpower, their enthusiasm for the EU went downhill.

[Jens]

For me it looks very much like a not very pleasant hint to the French government and its incompetence, coupled with the fear of the Tyrkish Hords

[minionofmidas]

Yeah...looking at those exit polls this was almost as much of a referendum on Jacques Chirac than a referendum on the European Constitution...and infinitely more so than a referendum on the European Union.

[Beet]

It seems as if most people voted on economic issues against a "liberal" Europe. This is definitely a collapse of the center in French politics, very much like the collapse of the center in the early to mid-1930s. Which means that either the far left or the far right will come in to fill the void. Both have had their day yesterday and will have their day again soon, but it remains to be seen which one will ultimately triumph and steer a bold new direction for France.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Interestingly, those leaders that supported Bush in the leadup to the war in Iraq have all withstood challenges and succeeded, though Italy is hanging by a thread.  The Paris-Berlin Axis, on the other hand, is in danger of collapse. 

This has nothing to do with the EU referendum, per se, just an interesting side note.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Big mistake by the French.

[Beet]

Interestingly, those leaders that supported Bush in the leadup to the war in Iraq have all withstood challenges and succeeded, though Italy is hanging by a thread.  The Paris-Berlin Axis, on the other hand, is in danger of collapse. 

This has nothing to do with the EU referendum, per se, just an interesting side note.

Putin, Chirac, and Schroeder are all still very much alive, and the only one in danger of being ousted before the end of the year is Schroeder, and that's only because of his own suicidal choice.

Aznar on the other hand is already out, and Berlusconi, despite trying his damndest to hang on to every last moment of power, is looking at uphill in early 2006.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Putin jails his oppostion.  I'd place him in roughly the same category as any of the old Soviet dictators.

[Jake]

Too bad Khodorkovsky couldn't be President

[Notre Dame rules!]

Hey, a criminal is a criminal.  I don't doubt that the guy is guilty.  However, Putin admits that he isn't going to go after all of the people who bilked Russian for billions of dollars, only those who meddle in politics.

Using the Putin Principle, Bush should have George Soros arrested, tried, found guilty, and executed (yeah, we can still kill 'em here), all in one day.

Hmmm..that may not be such a bad idea after all. 

[Jake]

I'd rather work with a friendly criminal than an unfriendly criminal.

[minionofmidas]

Interestingly, those leaders that supported Bush in the leadup to the war in Iraq have all withstood challenges and succeeded, though Italy is hanging by a thread.  The Paris-Berlin Axis, on the other hand, is in danger of collapse. 

This has nothing to do with the EU referendum, per se, just an interesting side note.

Ah yes, especially the Spanish and Portuguese Conservatives.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Interestingly, those leaders that supported Bush in the leadup to the war in Iraq have all withstood challenges and succeeded, though Italy is hanging by a thread.  The Paris-Berlin Axis, on the other hand, is in danger of collapse. 

This has nothing to do with the EU referendum, per se, just an interesting side note.

Ah yes, especially the Spanish and Portuguese Conservatives.

Hmmm... I forgot our friends on the Iberian Peninsula.  However, I think that the Spanish government fell more because of its handling of the bombing, rather than their involvment in Iraq--though you could say that the two are inextricably linked.  As for the Portuguese, I must confess that I wasn't even aware that they were a right leaning government until the elections swept  the left into power. 

(Sorry Bono, we don't get much info on Portuguese politics in the States.  No disrespect intended)

[Gustaf]

This definitely spells trouble for the EU. The Dutch will certainly vote no, I saw a poll indicating that a no-vote is possible even in Luxembourg. The conastitution is thus certainly dead. How on earth they're gonna rewrite it I don't know. The French wants it to be less liberal, the British wants it to be more liberal. I expect European integration to be on hold for a while now.

[Jens]

This definitely spells trouble for the EU. The Dutch will certainly vote no, I saw a poll indicating that a no-vote is possible even in Luxembourg. The conastitution is thus certainly dead. How on earth they're gonna rewrite it I don't know. The French wants it to be less liberal, the British wants it to be more liberal. I expect European integration to be on hold for a while now.

Probably not. We already got the Nice-treaty, which basically is a constitution, only a messier one, where the power structures are more clouded and the rights of the citizen less wellprotected.

[Јas]

Probably not. We already got the Nice-treaty, which basically is a constitution, only a messier one, where the power structures are more clouded and the rights of the citizen less wellprotected.

True, but I believe that Nice is applicable only until a 27th (or maybe it's 28th) member, IIRC, which means something else needs to be brought into play, though further expansion itself is now called into question in the short term anyway.

[dazzleman]

I think the French (and now Dutch) defeat of the EU constitution is based on a couple of issues, and has a good lesson in it for the US, if we choose to listen.

In Europe, the elites seem to largely control political discourse, and are able to drown out the concerns of the common people.  This is true particularly with respect to integration, and the presence of hostile Muslims.  We are developing a similar problem in the US with respect to immigration, with the elitist idea being that the position held by the majority of the people is racist and therefore deemed politically incorrect, and removed from the public discourse.

The vote was a whack at this type of elitism.

The other problem is economic.  Europeans have gotten used to the nanny state, and can't accept the idea that the underpinning of the nanny state are rotting.  They want to avoid painful reforms, and think that a form of protectionism will help accomplish this.  There is also a strain of this thinking in the US.  A vote against the EU constitution is a vote against the intrusion of some degree of economic reality.

As a previous poster mentioned, France hoped to use the EU to dominate Europe and become a superpower on the cheap.  It appears that it won't work, and it shouldn't.  So now maybe they're taking their ball and going home.

I'll shed no tears over the difficulties faced by the Europeans, especially hostile ones like the French.

[Sam Spade]

I think the French (and now Dutch) defeat of the EU constitution is based on a couple of issues, and has a good lesson in it for the US, if we choose to listen.

In Europe, the elites seem to largely control political discourse, and are able to drown out the concerns of the common people.  This is true particularly with respect to integration, and the presence of hostile Muslims.  We are developing a similar problem in the US with respect to immigration, with the elitist idea being that the position held by the majority of the people is racist and therefore deemed politically incorrect, and removed from the public discourse.

The vote was a whack at this type of elitism.

The other problem is economic.  Europeans have gotten used to the nanny state, and can't accept the idea that the underpinning of the nanny state are rotting.  They want to avoid painful reforms, and think that a form of protectionism will help accomplish this.  There is also a strain of this thinking in the US.  A vote against the EU constitution is a vote against the intrusion of some degree of economic reality.

As a previous poster mentioned, France hoped to use the EU to dominate Europe and become a superpower on the cheap.  It appears that it won't work, and it shouldn't.  So now maybe they're taking their ball and going home.

I'll shed no tears over the difficulties faced by the Europeans, especially hostile ones like the French.

Good analysis, though the first problem was the main reason behind the Dutch vote and the second problem was the main reason behind the French vote, imo.

[dazzleman]

I think the French (and now Dutch) defeat of the EU constitution is based on a couple of issues, and has a good lesson in it for the US, if we choose to listen.

In Europe, the elites seem to largely control political discourse, and are able to drown out the concerns of the common people.  This is true particularly with respect to integration, and the presence of hostile Muslims.  We are developing a similar problem in the US with respect to immigration, with the elitist idea being that the position held by the majority of the people is racist and therefore deemed politically incorrect, and removed from the public discourse.

The vote was a whack at this type of elitism.

The other problem is economic.  Europeans have gotten used to the nanny state, and can't accept the idea that the underpinning of the nanny state are rotting.  They want to avoid painful reforms, and think that a form of protectionism will help accomplish this.  There is also a strain of this thinking in the US.  A vote against the EU constitution is a vote against the intrusion of some degree of economic reality.

As a previous poster mentioned, France hoped to use the EU to dominate Europe and become a superpower on the cheap.  It appears that it won't work, and it shouldn't.  So now maybe they're taking their ball and going home.

I'll shed no tears over the difficulties faced by the Europeans, especially hostile ones like the French.

Good analysis, though the first problem was the main reason behind the Dutch vote and the second problem was the main reason behind the French vote, imo.

I agree with you.

[Gustaf]

This definitely spells trouble for the EU. The Dutch will certainly vote no, I saw a poll indicating that a no-vote is possible even in Luxembourg. The conastitution is thus certainly dead. How on earth they're gonna rewrite it I don't know. The French wants it to be less liberal, the British wants it to be more liberal. I expect European integration to be on hold for a while now.

Probably not. We already got the Nice-treaty, which basically is a constitution, only a messier one, where the power structures are more clouded and the rights of the citizen less wellprotected.

Probably not be on-hold? If they couldn't get this through it's inlukely that the EU will convince the population of any further European integration. It can be done undemocratically, of course, but that would create a big back-lash. And the Nice-treaty is no constitution. It has no fundamental rights, purposes etc.

[Huckleberry Finn]

I haven't a clear opinion about the constitution, but it's damn good that influence of Frenchmen in the EU decreased remarkably as the result of the referendum!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I haven't a clear opinion about the constitution, but it's damn good that influence of Frenchmen in the EU decreased remarkably as the result of the referendum!

Are you sure you aren't British?