Can Trump swing Pennsylvania in the general election?
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  Can Trump swing Pennsylvania in the general election?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Can Trump flip Pennsylvania in the general election?
#1
yes		  
#2
no		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 104

Author Topic: Can Trump swing Pennsylvania in the general election?  (Read 5731 times)
standwrand
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« on: February 16, 2016, 11:08:32 AM »
Trump seems like the only Repub, except maybe Kasich, that could do it
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2016, 11:10:35 AM »
It depends on who he's up against.

If it's him vs. Hillary, probably not, though it'd be interesting to see two very qualified, very high-energy, and very sincere candidates trying to win over Pennsylvania.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2016, 11:13:00 AM »
No way. You heard it here first.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2016, 11:17:14 AM »
Yes, the Wharton School of Finance is located there. They'll love Trump. All of Philadelphia does. So much love in this city (no homo, it's brotherly)
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2016, 11:18:07 AM »
TRUMP is probably the only Republican who'd stand a chance of winning it
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2016, 11:20:49 AM »
Yes, he would unless he got killed nationwide.  But, I expect PA to vote to the right of VA in 2016, regardless of the candidate.

Actually, a narrow Trump win might look like:

Romney+
Pennsylvania+
Ohio+
Michigan+
Iowa+
New Hampshire

270-268
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Bismarck
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« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2016, 11:31:22 AM »
Depends to what degree the philly suburbs turn against him. He's probably drive up margins more in the Pittsburgh metro. But he needs to get at least Romney support in places like Bucks county.
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Zache
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« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2016, 11:34:33 AM »
Trump isn't going to swing anything.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2016, 12:04:43 PM »
Based on the 538 Facebook like map, PA is Trump country.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2016, 01:03:32 PM »
Yes. White working class and union members are sick of Clintonian LIES.

PA is Trump country
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2016, 01:22:33 PM »
Quote from: standwrand on February 16, 2016, 11:08:32 AM
Trump seems like the only Repub, except maybe Kasich, that could do it

Kasich maybe.
Trump no.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: February 16, 2016, 01:32:06 PM »
TRUMP is having enough trouble in CO/VA/ OH area. He must win those, Pa will iscDems baae and only go to Trump in a landslide.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #12 on: February 16, 2016, 01:32:53 PM »
No Republican can win against either Democrat in Pennsylvania. The Republican candidate whether it's Trump or anyone else should focus on the top four swing states Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. They may need all four. The only other possible swing state is Iowa.
(Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Wisconsin clearly lean Dem.)
It will be interesting to watch which swing states become the best bellweathers in the next 20 years more or less. The Republican will try to win Pennsylvania, but the more money spent here the less spent in critical states like Ohio and Florida.
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Reginald
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« Reply #13 on: February 16, 2016, 01:34:24 PM »
Trump is the most likely to do it, but it's still probably fool's gold ultimately.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: February 16, 2016, 01:39:50 PM »
Kasich is the only one electable, although Pennsylvania is fools gold for the GOP , Ohio is very much in play, Trumpster may lose it all, along with Pa and the election.
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Ljube
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« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2016, 01:51:54 PM »
People here need to realize that TRUMP will only campaign in high reward states. I mean, he is not wasting any more time on Iowa.

The math is clear. All he needs are Romney states (all sure thing), Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Therefore, Pennsylvania is key for TRUMP's overall election success.

Beside these three states, he will campaign in Michigan, New York, Wisconsin (maybe) and Minnesota (maybe). Other than these states, he will not campaign in any. Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire - fool's gold all. Nevada - winnable, but too small.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #16 on: February 16, 2016, 01:57:35 PM »
I'm just shocked people actually think Trump will win anything.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2016, 01:58:51 PM »
Quote from: Ljube on February 16, 2016, 01:51:54 PM

The math is clear. All he needs are Romney states (all sure thing), Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Therefore, Pennsylvania is key for TRUMP's overall election success.

He is not going to win Pennsylvania, but your math is correct, the following map gives him 273 electoral votes:
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2016, 02:01:57 PM »
Only Kasich can
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d32123
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« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2016, 02:02:39 PM »

Lol
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2016, 02:04:17 PM »

This is a more plausible map of Trump v either Dem. He would also probably lose Colorado.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2016, 02:07:11 PM »
Kasich, definitely. Trump, NO. Do people even remember the things that this man has said? His appeal is limited in my opinion. I still say that he has a popular vote ceiling on less than 47 percent and 180 electoral votes.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2016, 02:43:15 PM »
He's gonna lose by 2-5 points
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2016, 02:50:45 PM »
Although it is unlikely I could see Trump narrowly winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college if it's a close election. I think that currently, and ironically, Democrats have a slight advantage in the electoral college. I could see, for example, Trump doing really well in many safe Republican states and narrowly losing certain swing states.
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pho
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« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2016, 02:58:32 PM »
Can? Absolutely. Will? Not without a landslide.

It's nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with polarization. PA is not a swing state, a Republican hasn't carried it in 28 years.
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