By-election due in Cheadle

[afleitch]

Liberal Democrat MP Patsy Calton has died following a long battle with cancer, aged 56.

The Cheadle MP presided over the most marginal seat in the UK until she was returned to Parliament on 5 May with a greatly increased majority

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4592009.stm

[Ben.]

Sadly I get the sense that this will be a real romp for Reynard and his crew, no doubt exploiting public sympathy to its fullest they’ll have the “Patsy Calton memorial by-election”, the tone they’ll take is already foreshadowed in the over the top sentimentalism of Simon Hughes’ statement on her death.

A lot will depend on how Labour and the Tories play it, with relations between Labour and the LibDems at their lowest ebb for quite some time I doubt Labour will give the LibDems the clear run they did in by-elections such as Romley after 1997, at the same time with the Tories entering a likely leadership contest in the autumn it will be interesting to see how seriously they take this sort of contest in a seat they should be, and are very competitive in.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Will this end up being held at the same time as the Staffordshire South by-election or later?

[Peter]

Will this end up being held at the same time as the Staffordshire South by-election or later?

There's not time to arrange it for then really - they'll hold it some time in July probably.

Here's an electoral history of Cheadle, dating back to 1959 if you're interested.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ben's right sadly; Rennard's nasty little "memorial by-election" trick has been used so often at local level it's not funny (and it's not sincere either; let's just say that the Brent East LibDems were very well prepared for that by-election...) and it'll almost certainly get used in Cheadle. Still... Rennard is nowhere near as good an election strategist/etc as the media (and himself) like to think... Fraser Kemp ran rings around him in Hartlepool for one thing and the LibDems GE strategy was a pretty big blunder in retrospect... his overconfidence also cost them Brum Hodge Hill IMO.
But he won't f*** this up; the stakes are too high. The blow to LibDem morale if they lost a seat in a by-election would be huge.

[Rural Radical]

Having tactically voted at a local level before i.e. no Labour candidate. I would be very unlikely to vote Lib Dem if I lived in Cheadle. (hence the double standardards of the party)

[Rural Radical]

What is happening in this campaign ?

What dat is the contest ?

Who are the candidates ?

[Peter]

Date was just set either today or yesterday: July 14th.

Tory candidate is Stephen Day, again.

Lib Dem candidate is local Stockport Council leader.

Obviously there will be a load of other candidates competing to get out of double digits.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Does Parliament use any sort of a seniority system,, and if so, will Stephen Day get any perks because of his former service as an MP?

[Peter]

Does Parliament use any sort of a seniority system,, and if so, will Stephen Day get any perks because of his former service as an MP?

I think it uses a seniority system for allocation of office space, and then there are the obvious benefits to being the Father of the House. If Stephen Day is returned he will however have no seniority whatsoever: He will be the most junior MP in the Commons.

[Peter]

Wikipedia constituency results

Didn't UKIP do well - probably picked up a lot of the collapsing Labour support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't UKIP do well - probably picked up a lot of the collapsing Labour support.

Nah, hardly any of the Labour voters (not that there's a lot in that seat anyway) bothered to turn out. I'd guess the UKIP votes were mostly from people who voted for Cormack in 2001 but seeing as the election was already over and the government determined, decided to vote UKIP in protest at Cormack's pro-European views.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LibDems are apparently nervous about the Cheadle by-election... this could be just mind games though.

They may have picked a very poor choice of candidate indeed

[Rural Radical]

whos the candidate Millard or Hunter ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hunter

[Rural Radical]

Any news whats happening here in Cheadle ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nothing new as such, but there's a drip-drip of stories every week about rows within the LibDems, councillers leaving them en masse (including the former Mayor of Islington)... that kind of stuff.
Whether this has anything to do with the by-election or not, I don't know; I remember hearing that NW Labour might take the by-election suprisingly seriously; they have no chance of winning but they might be able to scupper the LibDems chances of holding Cheadle. Bear in mind the foul nature of some LibDem campaigns in the Northwest in the General Election and the fact that a *lot* of people in NW Labour were unhappy about it...

[Ben.]

Polling Day on Thursday any info as to whats going on?

[Rural Radical]

I would wager that Labour will do OK here (they wont win of course) but I thonk there was a few nasty battles here in the northwest at the general election.

Wouldnt rule ou the tories snatching this one. If they dont they are really in a mess.

[Ben.]

I would wager that Labour will do OK here (they wont win of course) but I thonk there was a few nasty battles here in the northwest at the general election.

Wouldnt rule ou the tories snatching this one. If they dont they are really in a mess.

If Labour do ok (up 2-3% on their GE performance) the LibDems are done, a low turnout in a byelection (no doubt made worse by it being so soon after the GE) togther with the loss of Carlton's personal vote make a Tory gain a real possibility... though I wouldn't like to bet against Reynard's boys but he might be in a pickle, will be interesting to watch... sadly two byelections in Labour wards in Leicester (West + East... not South thankfully) which will also keep me on the phones till late on Thursday.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC's Northwest Political Editor says it's "neck and neck". It'll all come down to how many of the Labour voters in Cheadle (not that there's many) decide to vote tactically...

[Rural Radical]

IM split here. Part of me wants the Lib Dems to lose, but I dont want the tories to win. A tough one to call.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Predictions anyone?

[Rural Radical]

Predictions anyone?

Very Narrow win for the Tories withan increased Labour Vote

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls have closed. Result is expected in a few hours.