NYC Republicans looking at 31-year old councilman to unseat De Blasio in '17

[Fuzzy Bear]

New York is like 70% minority. They aren't electing some White guy from an area so out of the way it might as well be New Jersey and which is primarily known to most people for an anti-Black racially motivated murder.

This may be, but here's how it breaks down:

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Most Hispanics in NYC are WHITE Hispanics.  In addition, Asians, at 12.7% are growing, and their interests are, very much, aligned with NYC's white middle class.

New York's non-Democratic mayors have not been elected as flat-out Republicans;  they have been "fusion" candidates, nominated with the support of the Republican Party and cross-endorsed (NY allows candidates to run as the nominee of more than one party on the ballot.) That list includes Fiorello LaGuardia (nominated by the Republican and American Labor Parties), John Lindsay and Rudy Giuliani (nominees of the Republican and Liberal Parties), as well as Mike Bloomberg, who was a the nominee of the Republican and Independence Parties.  No GOP Mayor has been elected Mayor of NY without the defection of SIGNIFICANT numbers of prominent Democrats.  (Lindsay, by the way, was re-elected in 1969 as the Liberal Party nominee only; he lost the Republican nomination that year to State Sen. John Marchi, a conservative Republican.) 

Such a scenario could always happen again, particularly if there is a sluggish economy.  DeBlasio certainly has its enemies, but the Democratic Party is not likely to nominate a centrist Democrat, let alone a conservative.  But a moderate Democrat could run in the GOP primary (if the GOP leader signs a Wilson-Pakula waiver) and that candidate could gain the support of a number of minor parties, or create their own minor party so Democrats can vote for him on a minor party line without saying that they voted for a Republican. 

[Simfan34]

Ronald Lauder.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

DeBlasio has been a disaster. NYC looked really rough when I was there in December, much worse than I've ever seen it. I hope they elect someone else this next election.

[seanNJ9]

DeBlasio has been a disaster. NYC looked really rough when I was there in December, much worse than I've ever seen it. I hope they elect someone else this next election.

What makes you think you're qualified to make such a statement? Because you made one visit in December? What could you have possibly learned?

[Figueira]

DeBlasio has been a disaster. NYC looked really rough when I was there in December, much worse than I've ever seen it. I hope they elect someone else this next election.

What makes you think you're qualified to make such a statement? Because you made one visit in December? What could you have possibly learned?

I went to Toledo a few years ago and it seemed kind of rough. Michael P. Bell must have really been a terrible mayor.

[Suburbia]

I could see Ulrich running a good campaign for Mayor in 2017.

[BuckeyeNut]

I keep reading this as "NYC Republicans looking at 17-year-old to unseat De Blasio in '31."

This is the funniest thing I've ever read on the board. The NYC GOP better start looking at the 2-year-olds with the most potential.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I keep reading this as "NYC Republicans looking at 17-year-old to unseat De Blasio in '31."

This is the funniest thing I've ever read on the board. The NYC GOP better start looking at the 2-year-olds with the most potential.

Rudy Giuliani and Donald Trump will take one under their wing as the young padowan learner.

[Thunderbird is the word]

DeBlasio has been a disaster. NYC looked really rough when I was there in December, much worse than I've ever seen it. I hope they elect someone else this next election.

lol, I wish

[smoltchanov]

I could see Ulrich running a good campaign for Mayor in 2017.

As far as i remember - he is relatively conservative on choice and some other social issues. All successes Republicans had in mayoral elections in NYC were with socially liberal candidates (Giuliani, and, especially, Bloomberg, even Lindsay in 60th). So - i doubt....

[Suburbia]

I keep reading this as "NYC Republicans looking at 17-year-old to unseat De Blasio in '31."

This is the funniest thing I've ever read on the board. The NYC GOP better start looking at the 2-year-olds with the most potential.

Dude, Republicans could still win in NYC. The Italians and some Irish Giuliani coalition that is still in Glendale, Queens, Howard Beach, Queens, most of Staten Island, etc. could oust De Blasio if he underperforms.

[smoltchanov]

I keep reading this as "NYC Republicans looking at 17-year-old to unseat De Blasio in '31."

This is the funniest thing I've ever read on the board. The NYC GOP better start looking at the 2-year-olds with the most potential.

Dude, Republicans could still win in NYC. The Italians and some Irish Giuliani coalition that is still in Glendale, Queens, Howard Beach, Queens, most of Staten Island, etc. could oust De Blasio if he underperforms.

Only if he severely underperforms...

[IceSpear]

The days of Republicans winning NYC are long gone.

[smoltchanov]

The days of Republicans winning NYC are long gone.

Not so long. Bloomberg successfully ran as a Republican...

[IceSpear]

The days of Republicans winning NYC are long gone.

Not so long. Bloomberg successfully ran as a Republican...

How many years ago was that?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The days of Republicans winning NYC are long gone.

Not so long. Bloomberg successfully ran as a Republican...

How many years ago was that?

2005/11 years ago. And he was the defacto republican nominee in 2009/7 years ago - yeah he technically ran as independent but republicans didn't run a candidate and it was pretty clear New York Republicans were supposed to vote for him.

[Pandaguineapig]

If the de blasio investigation has legs it could make a path to victory for a republican plausible if unlikely

[Suburbia]

If the de blasio investigation has legs it could make a path to victory for a republican plausible if unlikely

Ray Kelly or Eric Ulrich could beat De Blasio if he was to be re-nominated. De Blasio's former boss, David Dinkins, had a primary challenge in 1993 to a conservative Democrat, Roy Innis.

http://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/25/nyregion/innis-campaign-for-mayor-a-quixotic-quest.html

[smoltchanov]

The days of Republicans winning NYC are long gone.

Not so long. Bloomberg successfully ran as a Republican...

How many years ago was that?

Last Bloomberg run was in 2009. If it's "long ago" then i am colonel Sanders....

[IceSpear]

He was an independent in 2009. For some reason I thought he was an independent in 2005 as well, my bad. But regardless, 2005 is quite a long time ago. Democrats were still winning Arkansas and West Virginia in landslides back then.

[Thunderbird is the word]

He also barely won in 2009. His popularity had shrunk considerably from it's high point in 2005.

[smoltchanov]

He was an independent in 2009. For some reason I thought he was an independent in 2005 as well, my bad. But regardless, 2005 is quite a long time ago. Democrats were still winning Arkansas and West Virginia in landslides back then.

"Long ago" for me is about 50 years. The first Presidential election i remember in some details is Johnson - Goldwater. And even that is not much by historical standards...

[smoltchanov]

He also barely won in 2009. His popularity had shrunk considerably from it's high point in 2005.

But he won. We will see what de Blasio popularity will be at comparable time. Some people soured on Bloomberg when he almost forced city council to lift term-limits in 2009, but, overall, IMHO, he was the best mayor in the last 50 years or so.

[Simfan34]

I've been wondering if the NY Liberal Party could be revived as the de facto branch of the GOP in the city. Neither Guliani nor Bloomie were all that interested in building a party that came anywhere near a majority on the city council.

Now, more than ever, in the post GW-Bush, post-Trump period there is a significant stigma surrounding the Republican label. So why not work around it, and take advantage of electoral fusion by usurping the Liberal moniker? At the same time it would enable the leaders of any such initiative to circumvent the fractious politics of the NYC GOP and select an optimal slate with limited gain.

Let's paint a picture. A charismatic, wealthy Bloomberg type wins election as mayor as an "Independent Republican" and starts to build a coalition. In Manhattan there are the two seats on the UES and one in the financal district. There is a Chinese-majority district-- the 26th, I think, where the councilman was elected as a Republican but I now a Democrat. You have white plurality districts across the city plus some middle class Hispanic areas. The needed remainder can made up through sadly necessary patronage politics.

Come next election, the mayor is reelected on a Liberal-Republican ticket, and 6 Republicans and 20-25 Liberals are elected on the Liberal-Republican line for a majority of 31-20. Some Democrats were convinced to cross the floor, particularly those facing challenges by the Working Families Party.

The next year in State House and State Senate elections the Liberals pick up 25 and 6 seats respectively, in the latter having absorbed the Independent Democrats. The Liberal-Republicans thus become a pivotal bloc whose support is necessary to govern, meaning Cuomo is forced to give the city the short end of the stick less often. The mayor forces himself into the room with three men.

The Liberal-Republican majority on the Council meanwhile votes to yet again repeal term limits, this time far less contentiously. The mayor, who, perhaps, has replaced income, business, and property taxes with a land value tax, and has forced sweeping regulatory approval streamlining in order to quickly and rapidly implement a series of vast infrastructural improvements, including a subway expansion on the scale of that proposed by mayor Hyman in 1923. The abolition of rent control and a direct housing subsidy program results in a mass influx of new upper middle class residents and the demolition of public housing projects. A new... [insert my personal wish list here]. The mayor as a result remains extremely popular. At this point thinking about parachuting someone into the Governor's office (Cuomo can't stay forever) and nominating some Congressional candidates is not out of the question.

I think this is plausible. But the steps needed to make it happen are not being taken. Until then I'm holding out for a Bloomberg reprise-- the term limit only applies to consecutive terms.

[smoltchanov]

^ 20th district. Peter Koo. The problem is - he is, essentially, moderate liberal (centrist on economy, more liberal (AFAIK) on social issues). Just as Bloomberg, and successful Republicans of the past (Lindsay, Kupferman and so on) were. But present day Republican party seems to hate such persons even more then Democrats. Especially - in their "own" party...