Bolivian constitutional referendum, February 21, 2016

[ag]

The oficial site has gone down with 4530 precincts and 32.9% YES. Hopefully, this is just a minor hiccup.

[ag]

Back up

So far, the oficial results are (with 4,717 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.87%
NO 67.13%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (420 of 1644 reporting)
YES 25.61%
NO 74.39%

La Paz (1582of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.9%
NO 57.1%

Cochabamba (539 of 5359 reporting)
YES 32.07%
NO 67.93%

Oruro (530 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.95%
NO 55.05%

Potosi (560 of 2131 reporting)
YES 13.9%
NO 86.1%

Tarija (73 of 1590)
YES 30.27
NO 69.73

Santa Cruz (738 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.05%
NO 79.95%

Beni (125 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.33%
NO 65.67%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[ag]

Still barely about a quarter reporting. But will it be as close as predicted? La Paz must be asleep for the night, BTW

With 7,408 of 29,224 precincts reporting


YES 35.78%
NO 64.22%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (807 of 1644 reporting)
YES 28.94%
NO 71.06%

La Paz (1588 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.96%
NO 57.04%

Cochabamba (1193 of 5359 reporting)
YES 42.51%
NO 57.49%

Oruro (570 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.91%
NO 55.09%

Potosi (613 of 2131 reporting)
YES 16.01%
NO 83.99%

Tarija (152 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.66
NO 71.34

Santa Cruz (1966 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.26%
NO 67.74%

Beni (347of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[ag]

Just as I wrote the previous message, the thing started tightening. Mostly Cochabamba is reporting, and it is reporting more and more YES.

With 7,817 of 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 36.66%
NO 63.34%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (1588 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.96%
NO 57.04%

Cochabamba (1564 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.42%
NO 54.58%

Oruro (570 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.91%
NO 55.09%

Potosi (613 of 2131 reporting)
YES 16.01%
NO 83.99%

Tarija (152 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.66
NO 71.34

Santa Cruz (1966 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.26%
NO 67.74%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

Off to bed.

[jaichind]

8281 out of 30367 precincts reporting

36.49% Yes 63.51% No.

[jaichind]

From FT

"With 72.5 per cent of votes counted, Bolivia’s state-run news agency reported that preliminary official results show the “no” vote against the constitutional amendment to allow the president to run for a fourth term in 2019 secured 56.5 per cent, against 43.2 per in favour."

If true, for Yes to win then the rest of the vote must come in around 68-32 for Yes.  This seems like an uphill climb.  The Yes-No split from what is on the official website to the number above seems to be 47.2-52.8.

[ag]

Just hit 1 mln NO votes on the official count (with YES still substantially below 600,000).

With 8,534 of 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 36.72%
NO 63.28%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (1815 of 8116 reporting)
YES 43.23%
NO 56.77%

Cochabamba (1702 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.52%
NO 54.48%

Oruro (570 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.91%
NO 55.09%

Potosi (613 of 2131 reporting)
YES 16.01%
NO 83.99%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (1966 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.26%
NO 67.74%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[ag]

YES vote share is creeping up, but the gap in the number of votes is still growing.

With 8,838 of 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 36.99%
NO 63.01%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (2056 of 8116 reporting)
YES 43.2%
NO 56.8%

Cochabamba (1702 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.52%
NO 54.48%

Oruro (610 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.59%
NO 55.41%

Potosi (678 of 2131 reporting)
YES 19.19%
NO 80.81%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (1973 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.19%
NO 67.81%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[ag]

Counting accelerates.

With 9,354 of 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 37.37%
NO 62.63%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (2096 of 8116 reporting)
YES 43.19%
NO 56.81%

Cochabamba (1702 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.52%
NO 54.48%

Oruro (691 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.51%
NO 55.49%

Potosi (840 of 2131 reporting)
YES 24.58%
NO 75.42%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (2121 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.63%
NO 67.37%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (182 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.85%
NO 59.15%

[ag]

First results from abroad: 70 of 1143 precincts

YES 26.76%
NO 73.24%

[ag]

Ignoring the foreign vote, on the domestic count the percentages get closer, but the absolute margin has crossed 450,000 votes.

With 10,165 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 38.02%
NO 61.98%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (2505 of 8116 reporting)
YES 43.37%
NO 56.63%

Cochabamba (1727 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.58%
NO 54.42%

Oruro (790 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.59%
NO 55.41%

Potosi (1045 of 2131 reporting)
YES 29.98%
NO 70.02%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (2197 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.58%
NO 67.42%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (234 of 326 reporting)
YES 42.97%
NO 57.03%

[ag]

Once again it is off. It seems they are changing the reporting format for some reason. Hopefully, just a minor hiccup.

[jaichind]

Once again it is off. It seems they are changing the reporting format for some reason. Hopefully, just a minor hiccup.

Is Manuel Bartlett in charge of the election results system/website ?

[jaichind]

Feb. 22 (AFP) -- Bolivia's Morales promises to respect referendum result

-> I guess he is sort of conceding

[ag]

Once again it is off. It seems they are changing the reporting format for some reason. Hopefully, just a minor hiccup.

Is Manuel Bartlett in charge of the election results system/website ?

He must be an external consultant His computer expertise is unmatched worldwide

[ag]

Sharp improvement for YES: even in the margin. Though, of course, that was expected.

With 11910 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 41.04%
NO 58.96%

[jaichind]

When I try http://resultados2016.oep.org.bo/ it always seem to be down.  Is there another site I should be using?  This count speed is absurd.  Only place worst than this is my home county of Westchester.

[ag]

When I try http://resultados2016.oep.org.bo/ it always seem to be down.  Is there another site I should be using?  This count speed is absurd.  Only place worst than this is my home county of Westchester.

No, that is the site. It wakes up intermittently - so if you presse the button all the time, it works. I guess, too many people doing the same.

[ag]

Brief awakening

With 11993 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 40.97%
NO 59.03%

[ag]

When I try http://resultados2016.oep.org.bo/ it always seem to be down.  Is there another site I should be using?  This count speed is absurd.  Only place worst than this is my home county of Westchester.

As for the speed of count, it, actually, makes sense. They have counted, really, quite some time ago - this is the oficial count, which involves verification of the actas, etc. In Mexico they do not even start it till 3 days after the election.

[jaichind]

Around 41% of the results in.  No winning 59.05 to 40.95.

[ag]

It is now available, but reporting has slown to a crawl.

With 12,011 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 38.02%
NO 61.98%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (3085 of 8116 reporting)
YES 45.9%
NO 54.01%

Cochabamba (2265 of 5359 reporting)
YES 50.94%
NO 49.06%

First time YES leads in a department!

Oruro (1197 of 1487 reporting)
YES 48.77%
NO 51.23%


Potosi (1045 of 2131 reporting)
YES 29.98%
NO 70.02%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (2515 of 7432 reporting)
YES 33.31%
NO 66.69%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (234 of 326 reporting)
YES 42.97%
NO 57.03%

[ag]

More results. Things slowly converge to the advertised narrow victory by NO.

With 12,798 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 41.79%
NO 58.21%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (852 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.53%
NO 70.47%

La Paz (3134 of 8116 reporting)
YES 46.23%
NO 53.77%

Cochabamba (2542 of 5359 reporting)
YES 53.19%
NO 46.81%

Oruro (1208 of 1487 reporting)
YES 48.93%
NO 51.07%


Potosi (1067 of 2131 reporting)
YES 30.35%
NO 79.65%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (2877 of 7432 reporting)
YES 34.16%
NO 65.84%

Beni (377 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.84%
NO 65.16%

Pando (234 of 326 reporting)
YES 42.97%
NO 57.03%

[ag]

Foreign precincts:

540 of 1143 reporting
YES 31.67%
NO 68.33%

About extra 15,000 votes for the NO margin.

[ag]

Much of the reporting comes from Cochabamba and Oruro - the most pro-SI departments. But Oruro is, mostly, done and Cochabamba is a bit above average. Still, we got quite serious tightening.

With 13,114 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 42.12%
NO 57.88%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (896 of 1644 reporting)
YES 31.07%
NO 68.93%

La Paz (3192 of 8116 reporting)
YES 46.05%
NO 53.95%

Cochabamba (2617 of 5359 reporting)
YES 53.89%
NO 46.11%

Oruro (1285 of 1487 reporting)
YES 49.65%
NO 50.35%


Potosi (1067 of 2131 reporting)
YES 30.35%
NO 79.65%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (2917 of 7432 reporting)
YES 34.16%
NO 65.84%

Beni (394 of 1139 reporting)
YES 35.21%
NO 64.79%

Pando (234 of 326 reporting)
YES 42.97%
NO 57.03%