Bolivian constitutional referendum, February 21, 2016

[ag]

After a long hiatus, the oficial site is back online. Much closer now.

With 16,042 of the 29,224 precincts reporting it is

YES 44.14%
NO 55.86%

with the margin down to about 342 thousand votes. Additionally, about 15 thousand margin is provided by the foreign precincts (still the same 540 of 1,143 reporting). So the total vote margin is still something like 357,000 - but it has been almost a 100,000 bigger earlier.

Update: it was a momentary luck. The damned thing has crashed again.

[jaichind]

This guys must us the same company that built the Obamacare websites. 

[jaichind]

With 78% of the precincts in it is 53.89% vs 46.11% for No.

[jaichind]

Once you include Foreign precincts it is 77.4% of precincts counted it is 53.99% vs 46.01%. If one extrapolates existing regional results it will end up being 54.18% vs 45.82%.  So Evo has to hope that in all regions the rural areas are not the ones being counted yet or else he will fall short for sure.

[jaichind]

From FT

"With 72.5 per cent of votes counted, Bolivia’s state-run news agency reported that preliminary official results show the “no” vote against the constitutional amendment to allow the president to run for a fourth term in 2019 secured 56.5 per cent, against 43.2 per in favour."

If true, for Yes to win then the rest of the vote must come in around 68-32 for Yes.  This seems like an uphill climb.  The Yes-No split from what is on the official website to the number above seems to be 47.2-52.8.

Now that 77% of the votes are in the results seems more positive for Evo than the FT report indicated a day ago.  Still most likely he will not make it.

[jaichind]

From FT

"With more than 85 per cent of votes counted in Sunday’s referendum, preliminary official results show that 53.3 per cent voted against a constitutional amendment to allow the president to run for a fourth term in 2019, while 46.7 per cent voted in favour."

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So RIP Evo?

[jaichind]

So RIP Evo?

I do not see how he could win.  Of course this means he has to work on grooming a successor for 2019. 

[Ebsy]

(Literal) Freedom Result!

[ag]

They have given up on sophisticated reportgin system and just post the pdfs.

With 26,221 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 47.53%
NO 52.47%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (1534 of 1644 reporting)
YES 44.43%
NO 55.57%

La Paz (7498 of 8116 reporting)
YES 55.00%
NO 45.00%

Cochabamba (4758 of 5359 reporting)
YES 54.95%
NO 45.05%

Oruro (1368 of 1487 reporting)
YES 50.49%
NO 49.51%

Potosi (1487 of 2131 reporting)
YES 37.07%
NO 62.93%

Tarija (1005 of 1590 reporting)
YES 33.32
NO 66.17

Santa Cruz (7348 of 7432 reporting)
YES 39.59%
NO 60.41%

Beni (877 of 1139 reporting)
YES 37.13%
NO 62.87%

Pando (326 of 326 reporting - first complete department)
YES 46.02%
NO 53.98%

In addition, exterior precincts still at 540 out of 1143 reporting with
YES 31.67%
NO 68.33%

[ag]

To sum up what is left:

110 precincts in Chuquisaca
618 precincts in La Paz
601 precinct in Cochabamba
111 precincts in Oruro
644 precincts in Potosi
585 precincts in Tarija
84 precincts in Santa Cruz
262 precincts in Beni
0 precincts in Pando

603 precincts abroad (these are tiny)

[jaichind]

Based on these numbers and trends it will be Yes 47 No 53.  Of course the remaining precients could be more rural and more pro-Evo but Yes will need to win around 71.5% of the outstanding vote to win, which is pretty much impossible.

[ag]

A little bit more reporting, a little bit closer. We are over 90% reporting now. Oruro has joined Pando in being completely done.

With 26,383 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 47.61%
NO 52.39%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (1534 of 1644 reporting)
YES 44.43%
NO 55.57%

La Paz (7498 of 8116 reporting)
YES 55.00%
NO 45.00%

Cochabamba (4758 of 5359 reporting)
YES 54.95%
NO 45.05%

Oruro (1487 of 1487 reporting - DONE)
YES 52.03%
NO 47.97%

Potosi (1487 of 2131 reporting)
YES 37.07%
NO 62.93%

Tarija (1005 of 1590 reporting)
YES 33.32
NO 66.17

Santa Cruz (7395 of 7432 reporting)
YES 39.65%
NO 60.35%

Beni (893 of 1139 reporting)
YES 37.03%
NO 62.97%

Pando (326 of 326 reporting - DONE)
YES 46.02%
NO 53.98%

In addition, exterior precincts still at 540 out of 1143 reporting with
YES 31.67%
NO 68.33%

[ag]

To sum up what is left:

110 precincts in Chuquisaca
618 precincts in La Paz
601 precinct in Cochabamba
0     precincts in Oruro
644 precincts in Potosi
585 precincts in Tarija
37 precincts in Santa Cruz
246 precincts in Beni
0 precincts in Pando

603 precincts abroad (these are tiny)

[ag]

And more.

With 26,628 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 47.73%
NO 52.27%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (1534 of 1644 reporting)
YES 44.43%
NO 55.57%

La Paz (7501 of 8116 reporting)
YES 54.99%
NO 45.01%

Cochabamba (4758 of 5359 reporting)
YES 54.95%
NO 45.05%

Oruro (1487 of 1487 reporting - DONE)
YES 52.03%
NO 47.97%

Potosi (1667 of 2131 reporting)
YES 40.21%
NO 59.79%

Tarija (1005 of 1590 reporting)
YES 33.32
NO 66.17

Santa Cruz (7396 of 7432 reporting)
YES 39.65%
NO 60.35%

Beni (954 of 1139 reporting)
YES 37.72%
NO 62.28%

Pando (326 of 326 reporting - DONE)
YES 46.02%
NO 53.98%

In addition, exterior precincts still at 540 out of 1143 reporting with
YES 31.67%
NO 68.33%

[ag]

To sum up what is left:

110 precincts in Chuquisaca
615 precincts in La Paz
601 precinct in Cochabamba
0     precincts in Oruro
458 precincts in Potosi
585 precincts in Tarija
36 precincts in Santa Cruz
185 precincts in Beni
0 precincts in Pando

603 precincts abroad (these are tiny)

[ag]

So RIP Evo?

I do not see how he could win.  Of course this means he has to work on grooming a successor for 2019. 

Or on running another referendum in 2018.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- President Evo Morales losing by 52.39% vs 47.61% in referendum on whether to allow him to seek another term, electoral commission says on its website.
4.95m votes counted out of 6.24m registered voters
There were 5.69m voters registered at the voting stations that have already been counted
Valid votes total 4.71m

[ag]

Still closer to the end. Does not seem to be enough left to change the result, though, actually, it is going to be close. May be very close

With 27,376 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting (93.68%)

YES 48.03%
NO 51.97%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (1644 of 1644 reporting - DONE)
YES 44.77%
NO 55.23%

La Paz (7652 of 8116 reporting)
YES 55.22%
NO 44.78%

Cochabamba (4763 of 5359 reporting)
YES 54.94%
NO 45.06%

Oruro (1487 of 1487 reporting - DONE)
YES 52.03%
NO 47.97%

Potosi (1816 of 2131 reporting)
YES 42.99%
NO 57.01%

Tarija (1177 of 1590 reporting)
YES 36.37
NO 63.63

Santa Cruz (7397 of 7432 reporting)
YES 39.65%
NO 60.35%

Beni (1114 of 1139 reporting)
YES 39.10%
NO 60.90%

Pando (326 of 326 reporting - DONE)
YES 46.02%
NO 53.98%

In addition, exterior precincts still at 540 out of 1143 reporting with
YES 31.67%
NO 68.33%

[ag]

And what is left

0 precincts in Chuquisaca
464 precincts in La Paz
596 precincts in Cochabamba
0     precincts in Oruro
315 precincts in Potosi
413 precincts in Tarija
35 precincts in Santa Cruz
25 precincts in Beni
0 precincts in Pando

603 precincts abroad (these are tiny)

[ag]

The areas reporting now seem to be very rural. The system that allows one to see things by precinct is not working, and, judging by the published stats, we are already into the precincts that never reported on election night. The gap is shrinking rapidly: on the domestic precincts it is under 200,000 votes (though still a bit bigger if you include the foreign vote).  There are still a bit more than 350,000 registered voters in the remaining precincts. With turnout over 85% (another 4-5% spoiled/blank) there should not be enough left to cover this. But one gets worried.

[ag]

A little bit more. Closing rapidly, but, probably, too slow for Evo.

With 27,590 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting (94.41%)

YES 48.18%
NO 51.82%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (1644 of 1644 reporting - DONE)
YES 44.77%
NO 55.23%

La Paz (7768 of 8116 reporting)
YES 55.39%
NO 44.61%

Cochabamba (4763 of 5359 reporting)
YES 54.94%
NO 45.06%

Oruro (1487 of 1487 reporting - DONE)
YES 52.03%
NO 47.97%

Potosi (1896 of 2131 reporting)
YES 44.28%
NO 55.72%

Tarija (1177 of 1590 reporting)
YES 36.37
NO 63.63

Santa Cruz (7403 of 7432 reporting)
YES 39.66%
NO 60.34%

Beni (1114 of 1139 reporting)
YES 39.10%
NO 60.90%

Pando (326 of 326 reporting - DONE)
YES 46.02%
NO 53.98%

In addition, exterior precincts still at 540 out of 1143 reporting with
YES 31.67%
NO 68.33%

[ag]

What is left: (I am worried about all that Cochabamba):

0 precincts in Chuquisaca
348 precincts in La Paz
596 precincts in Cochabamba
0     precincts in Oruro
235 precincts in Potosi
413 precincts in Tarija
29 precincts in Santa Cruz
25 precincts in Beni
0 precincts in Pando

603 precincts abroad (these are tiny)

322 thousand voters registered in the domestic precincts left and 137 thousand in the foreign ones (turnout abroad is small, though). The domestic margin is about 178 thousand, and another 15 thousand is added by the foreign precincts so far. The problem is: almost all votes coming in are coming in on the YES side. And with a large turnout. These may be areas of very little control.

[jaichind]

If we extrapolate from existing results it should be 47.9 vs 51.1, but the trend seems to be that the more rural precients are the ones outstanding which are much more pro-Evo.  Anyway, Evo must gain around 78.7% of remaining votes to win.  Again, seems very unlikely.

[ag]

If we extrapolate from existing results it should be 47.9 vs 51.1, but the trend seems to be that the more rural precients are the ones outstanding which are much more pro-Evo.  Anyway, Evo must gain around 78.7% of remaining votes to win.  Again, seems very unlikely.

I would be more comfortable if the full reporting system were up. The problem is: it is not. These are the places were the ballots can be stuffed.