Bolivian constitutional referendum, February 21, 2016

[jaichind]

If we extrapolate from existing results it should be 47.9 vs 51.1, but the trend seems to be that the more rural precients are the ones outstanding which are much more pro-Evo.  Anyway, Evo must gain around 78.7% of remaining votes to win.  Again, seems very unlikely.

I would be more comfortable if the full reporting system were up. The problem is: it is not. These are the places were the ballots can be stuffed.

Well any mathematical analysis does not work if they are going to pull what Landslide Lyndon did back in 1948 which is to wait for almost the results to come in and they release whatever result is needed to win.

[ag]

If we extrapolate from existing results it should be 47.9 vs 51.1, but the trend seems to be that the more rural precients are the ones outstanding which are much more pro-Evo.  Anyway, Evo must gain around 78.7% of remaining votes to win.  Again, seems very unlikely.

I would be more comfortable if the full reporting system were up. The problem is: it is not. These are the places were the ballots can be stuffed.

Well any mathematical analysis does not work if they are going to pull what Landslide Lyndon did back in 1948 which is to wait for almost the results to come in and they release whatever result is needed to win.

They have crashed once again. Even on just the pdf posting. Hopefully, this is just the incompetence.

[ag]

Evo has said that he is confident the rural vote will push him through. His VP has accused opposition of committing "electoral fraud" in the rural areas by insisting on observing the count.

If these guys win by getting a 100% in the remaining Cochabamba precincts, they deserve a Lapazazo.

[ag]

Getting very close to being it. Seems to be too late to change. But, who knows: Tarija has reported, and that Cochabamba looks dangerous

With 28,134 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting (96.27%)

YES 48.30%
NO 51.70%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (1644 of 1644 reporting - DONE)
YES 44.77%
NO 55.23%

La Paz (7864 of 8116 reporting)
YES 55.53%
NO 44.47%

Cochabamba (4809 of 5359 reporting)
YES 55.01%
NO 44.99%

Oruro (1487 of 1487 reporting - DONE)
YES 52.03%
NO 47.97%

Potosi (1906 of 2131 reporting)
YES 44.34%
NO 55.66%

Tarija (1576 of 1590 reporting)
YES 39.69
NO 60.31

Santa Cruz (7408 of 7432 reporting)
YES 39.66%
NO 60.34%

Beni (1114 of 1139 reporting)
YES 39.10%
NO 60.90%

Pando (326 of 326 reporting - DONE)
YES 46.02%
NO 53.98%

In addition, exterior precincts still at 540 out of 1143 reporting with
YES 31.67%
NO 68.33%

[ag]

What is late is almost all Cochabamba and La Paz. They only have 220,000 voters left in the domestic precincts remaining, and they would need to cover an almost 170,000 vote margin (even if we forget of the foreign precincts, where there are another 15,000 votes that would have to be somehow covered).  Still, looks remarkably close now: especially given near lack of control over what happens in the rural parts.

0 precincts in Chuquisaca
250 precincts in La Paz
550 precincts in Cochabamba
0     precincts in Oruro
225 precincts in Potosi
14 precincts in Tarija
24 precincts in Santa Cruz
25 precincts in Beni
0 precincts in Pando

603 precincts abroad (these are tiny)

[ag]

A tiny bit more added: votes are coming at about 2:1 in favor of YES. Very little from Cochabamba. Also, some more from abroad: basically 50-50 , actually, on this round.

With 28,271 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting (96.27%)

YES 48.37%
NO 51.63%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (1644 of 1644 reporting - DONE)
YES 44.77%
NO 55.23%

La Paz (7956 of 8116 reporting)
YES 55.67%
NO 44.33%

Cochabamba (4835 of 5359 reporting)
YES 55.02%
NO 44.98%

Oruro (1487 of 1487 reporting - DONE)
YES 52.03%
NO 47.97%

Potosi (1906 of 2131 reporting)
YES 44.34%
NO 55.66%

Tarija (1590 of 1590 reporting - DONE)
YES 39.84
NO 60.16

Santa Cruz (7408 of 7432 reporting)
YES 39.66%
NO 60.34%

Beni (1119 of 1139 reporting)
YES 39.10%
NO 60.90%

Pando (326 of 326 reporting - DONE)
YES 46.02%
NO 53.98%

In addition, exterior precincts still at 649 out of 1143 reporting with
YES 34.54%
NO 65.46%

[ag]

What is left

0 precincts in Chuquisaca
160 precincts in La Paz
524 precincts in Cochabamba
0     precincts in Oruro
225 precincts in Potosi
0 precincts in Tarija
24 precincts in Santa Cruz
20 precincts in Beni
0 precincts in Pando

496 precincts abroad (these are tiny)

[ag]

Just came in a good chunk from Cochabamba. Nothing particularly notable. Have to run: hopefully, when I come back, it is all done.

[jaichind]

96.21% of precincts reported.  48.33% to 51.67%.  In theory Evo needs around 102.6% of the remaining votes to win.  The outstanding precincts must be much larger in terms of number of votes and completely for Evo for Evo to win now.

[jaichind]

96.66% of precincts reported.  48.39% to 51.61%.  In theory Evo needs around 106.2% of the remaining votes to win.

[jaichind]

97.84% of precincts reported.  48.48% to 51.52%.  In theory Evo needs around 133.7% of the remaining votes to win.  Looks like it will end around 48.5 vs 51.5.  A 3 percent loss.

[jaichind]

Bolivia rejects Morales bid for fourth term: results
Feb. 24 (AFP) -- Bolivia's President Evo Morales lost his bid Tuesday to seek a fourth term, his first direct election defeat since taking office in 2006, according to official results with nearly all votes counted.
With 99.41 percent of votes counted, the electoral board reported on its website that 51.33 percent of voters cast "no" ballots in the referendum, against 48.67 percent voting "yes."

[ag]

So, this is pretty much it. NO wins, though barely: there are simply fewer votes left in remaining precincts than needed to change the result.

With 30,187 of (domestic and external together) 30,367 precincts reporting (99.41%)

YES 48.67%
NO 51.33%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (1644 of 1644 reporting - DONE)
YES 44.77%
NO 55.23%

La Paz (7976 of 8116 reporting)
YES 55.70%
NO 44.30%

Cochabamba (5359 of 5359 reporting - DONE)
YES 54.89%
NO 45.11%

Oruro (1487 of 1487 reporting - DONE)
YES 52.03%
NO 47.97%

Potosi (2131 of 2131 reporting - DONE)
YES 46.74%
NO 53.26%

Tarija (1590 of 1590 reporting - DONE)
YES 39.84
NO 60.16

Santa Cruz (7408 of 7432 reporting)
YES 39.66%
NO 60.34%

Beni (1119 of 1139 reporting)
YES 39.10%
NO 60.90%

Pando (326 of 326 reporting - DONE)
YES 46.02%
NO 53.98%

exterior precincts (1136 out of 1143 reporting)
YES 51.37%
NO 48.63%

All that is left are

140 precincts in La Paz
24 precincts in Santa Cruz
20 precincts in Beni
7 precincts abroad

Cochabamba has reported in full (and the YES share there went, actually, slightly down in the end). Argentina reported a hugely pro-Evo vote, which canceled out the hugely NO vote from Spain (the foreign vote is now slightly in favour of YES), but it does not matter. The current margin is 139 thousand, and there are barely over 40 thousand voters left in the remaining precincts.

[RodPresident]

I think that Morales has luck that lacked to Chávez and Cristina Kirchner. He has time to forge a heir or a placeholder. Chavez spent much energy to get a 3rd term that he didn't enjoy and ended with Maduro as replacement, while Kirchner had to deal with a much complex movement (Peronism) and had Scioli as default choice.

[ag]

I think that Morales has luck that lacked to Chávez and Cristina Kirchner. He has time to forge a heir or a placeholder. Chavez spent much energy to get a 3rd term that he didn't enjoy and ended with Maduro as replacement, while Kirchner had to deal with a much complex movement (Peronism) and had Scioli as default choice.

He also has, for the moment, decent economy. His support is holding much better for a reason.