2 days out: Predict SC

[Ronnie]

My prediction:

Trump 31%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 22%
Bush 9%
Kasich 8%
Carson 7%

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 16%
Bush 14%
Kasich 13%
Carson 4%

[trickmind]

Trump: 35
Cruz: 21
Rubio: 16
Bush: 13
Kasich: 10
Carson: 5

[Lyin' Steve]

Trump 34
Rubio 24
Cruz 16
Kasich 11
Bush 9
Carson 8

[DavidB.]

Random personal predictions need to be posted in the Overtime Politics "polling" thread, folks.

[President Johnson]

TRUMP: 32%
Rafael: 22%
Rubot: 20%
Kasich: 11%
¿Jeb?: 9%
Carson: 6%

[Pandaguineapig]

TRRRUUUUMMMPPP:1000000000%

Genetic inferiors: 0

[MK]

Rubio 28
Trump 25
Cruz 21
Bush 10
Kasich 7

[PresidentTRUMP]

Trump 34%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 19%
Bush 11%
Kasich 8%
Carson 7%

[Fargobison]

Trump 33%
Rubio 23%
Cruz 21%
Kasich 8%
Bush 8%
Carson 6%

[mencken]

• South Carolina is demographically somewhere halfway between Iowa and New Hampshire; the fact that it is a weekend primary rather than a caucus probably nudges it slightly closer to the latter as far as the kind of results we can expect.
• With that in mind, I doubt Trump either significantly underperforms (a la Iowa) or overperforms (a la New Hampshire). However, recent polls (which were more accurate in both early contests) show Trump in the low 30s rather than the mid 30s, so I expect the final outcome to be similar.
• Cruz has a good ground game here, for what that is worth, plus Cruz really needs a good showing here to continue (then again, one could have said the same for Christie). He's been slightly down in the recent polls, although the ground game probably more than offsets that.
• Rubio clearly has momentum coming in, and unlike New Hampshire has not faced a major gaffe. The only reason I am reluctant to say he gets second is that Cruz will do anything possible to avoid that outcome.
• Bush pretty consistently matches his polling numbers, for bad or for worse.
• Kasich might beat expectations too if he were actually targeting the state.
• How many Carson supporters leave in order to strategically vote for Cruz or Rubio?

With all that in mind, here is my best guess:
Trump 31%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 11%
Bush 11%
Carson 7%

[Kingpoleon]

Donald Trump: 31%
Marco Rubio: 17%
Ted Cruz: 16%
John Kasich: 15%
Jeb Bush: 11%
Ben Carson: 9%
Others: <1%

[Pandaguineapig]

In all seriousness I believe that strategic voting will put Rubio well into the 20s and put both Bausch and bush in single digits

[Wells]

Trump 31
Cruz 22
Rubio 22
Bush 11
Kasich 10
Carson 4

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump 28%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 22%
Bush 16%
Kasich 7%
Carson 3%

Kasich and Carson suffer fatal blows in South Carolina, though they may soldier on.

Bush is not going to go gently into that good night.  He's still well-heeled, and he has support in South Carolina from voters that, ordinarily, would vote for someone else.

[standwrand]

Trump: 32
Rubio: 18.5
Cruz: 18
Bush: 11
Kasich: 8
Carson: 6

Bush and Carson drop out sometime between SC and NV

[Why]

Trump 37%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Carson 11%
Kasich 7%
Bush 6%

[Niemeyerite]

This was my prediction last Sunday:

Trump 39%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 13%
Bush 11%
Kasich 8%
Carson 6%
Others 1%

Now, it is:

Trump 36%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 17%
Bush 11%
Kasich 8%
Carson 6%
Others 1%

[Bigby]

Trump: 35
Rubio: 20
Cruz: 20
Kasich: 10
Carson: 5
Jeb: 5

Jeb commits suicide drops out.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Trump: 33
Cruz: 20
Rubio : 18
Kasich: 13
Jeb: 9
Carson: 6.5
Other 0.5

[jaichind]

Trump 32
Rubio 22
Cruz 19
Bush 12
Kasich 8
Carson 7

[Bismarck]

Trump- 34
Rubio- 23
Cruz- 19
Bush- 10
Kasich-8
Carson-6

[pho]

Trump 36%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 15%
Bush 12%
Kasich 8%
Carson 4%
Other 1%

[SillyAmerican]

Trump: 32
Rubio: 23
Cruz: 15
Kasich: 12
Carson: 11
Bush: 6
Other: 1

[Higgs]

Trump: 30%
Rubio: 24%
Cruz: 20%
Kasich: 11%
Bush: 10%
Carson: 5%