Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)  (Read 45994 times)
muon2
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« on: February 20, 2016, 03:25:13 PM »

Seems like any result from a 10-point Clinton win to a 6-point Sanders win is in the cards.

Do you think there will be that many ties to break? Wink
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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2016, 03:33:14 PM »

Fox reports women 56-41% for Clinton in their entrance poll, union 56-43% for Clinton, first-timers 54-43% Sanders, under 45 76-20% Sanders.
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2016, 04:07:39 PM »

The AP shows 50-50 statewide (delegates 421 to 418 Clinton with 12% in)
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muon2
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2016, 04:19:22 PM »

Fox shows 50.3-49.5% for Clinton with 14% of the delegates called.
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muon2
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2016, 04:22:57 PM »

Some sites report % of precincts and some report % of delegates.
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muon2
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2016, 04:30:55 PM »

NYT

464/1714

Clinton   1190  50.5%
Sanders 1165  49.4%
Other           3    0.1%

135/1022 in Clark County

The difference in delegates matters, and shows how close it is - 25 out of over 2000 awarded.
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muon2
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2016, 04:35:01 PM »

Fox entrance poll - Latinos (20% of the vote) 54-43% Sanders
Independents 75-20% Sanders
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muon2
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« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2016, 04:54:04 PM »


My precinct was 39-31 to Bernie, so 8 delegates to 7.

The other precinct in the same room was 23-22 to Hillary, so 4 delegates to 3.

That's what makes caucus counting delegates important. Though Sanders had more votes in total, the way they split made it even in delegates. If I shifted two votes to Clinton in Joe's precinct, and two votes to Sanders in the other precinct, then Sanders comes out with a net two delegate margin, instead of even.
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muon2
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2016, 04:58:41 PM »


My precinct was 39-31 to Bernie, so 8 delegates to 7.

The other precinct in the same room was 23-22 to Hillary, so 4 delegates to 3.

That's what makes caucus counting delegates important. Though Sanders had more votes in total, the way they split made it even in delegates. If I shifted two votes to Clinton in Joe's precinct, and two votes to Sanders in the other precinct, then Sanders comes out with a net two delegate margin, instead of even.
That's true, though the same thing can be said about any other sized constituency.

My point is that if one counted total votes instead of total delegates the number could be quite different - in either direction. The general public sees these results as if they were the total vote, not delegates awarded precinct by precinct.
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