What would count as a win for Sanders in South Carolina?

[Adam Griffin]

Getting a third of black voters. 

Is that enough if a nationwide black share for Bernie to get a majority of the elected delegates, assuming Hispanics break close to even?

To effectively tie (PV), Bernie would need 60% of the non-black vote and 30% of the black vote.

[defe07]

It depends on who wins Nevada. If Sanders wins, expectations for South Carolina will be much higher than if he loses.

Thisss!! If he wins in nv, he can keep hillary within 10% or less. No nv win and it'll be close to 20 points, in my opinion.

[The Other Castro]

Getting a third of black voters. 

Is that enough if a nationwide black share for Bernie to get a majority of the elected delegates, assuming Hispanics break close to even?

It's probably more than enough.

[IceSpear]

"As long as Sanders gets within 70 points it will be a win for him, because that's how much he trailed by in 2014" - The media

In all seriousness though, any non hack would probably say cracking 40%/holding Hillary under 60%.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Been rambling about it for two weeks here and on Atlas, but the short answer is:

35% for a narrative win in the media
40% for a narrative that makes Hillary the structural underdog long-term and takes this to the convention

I actually spoke with someone in Sanders' SC apparatus today to get some credible intel on the situation there:

The Sanders campaign's internals show that he's getting about 28% of the black vote in SC at the moment.

...

The SC electorate will be approximately 55% black and 40% white. If Sanders gets 50% of the white vote and 30% of the black vote, then that gets him slightly about the "magic 35% mark". Getting 35% of the total vote in SC will be a shot across the bow and a sign that his campaign can logistically win the PV. Getting 40% of the total vote - while I don't believe is possible - basically indicates that HRC is ing done.

I voted yes: I'm surprised to see unanimous no votes otherwise. If Clinton's margin of victory in SC is more than a point or two smaller than Bernie's in NH, then she isn't winning this nomination. I posted a lot about this over in the "what % of black voters will Sanders get in SC" thread, but long story short: if Bernie is >35% (all voters) in SC, then the race will drag on for a long time; if Bernie is at or above 40%, then Hillary is ing done.

For Bernie to get to 35% means he has won a majority of whites and 30% of blacks; to get to 40% means he has won a landslide of whites and at least one-third of blacks, which is enough to shut Hillary down outside of the Deep South and the occasional random state (NY, AR, etc).

Uh, Sanders getting 35% of the vote in SC isn't him getting the sh**t bombed out of him: it means he is doing about as well as he can possibly do in the state (winning a majority of non-black voters and getting 30% of the black vote) given the utter rigidity of the black vote. I've been rambling on about this for days, but if he gets 35%, this campaign is going to continue for months and the media is going to keep selling the "underperforming Clinton" narrative; if he gets 40%, he's likely going to win the nomination*.

*Assuming the superdelegates don't rudely and selfishly anoint Clinton

I think the 35% number is already kind of expected. So, the reality is probably is Hillary's number has a 5 in front of it and his has a 4.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Around 35 to 40% of the vote

[PeteB]

A win would be if he gets one vote more than Hillary.

But in terms of success, I would say any Clinton margin in single digits would be spun by the media as Sanders' success.