Nevada caucus bellwether counties
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  Nevada caucus bellwether counties
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Author Topic: Nevada caucus bellwether counties  (Read 957 times)
Nym90
nym90
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« on: February 20, 2016, 11:30:12 AM »

Unfortunately not much data on Atlas here, for the Democrats we only have county data for 2008 (please expand with older data if possible!). Clinton won these counties:

Clark
Lander
Lincoln
Lyon
Mineral
Nye
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2016, 01:30:11 PM »

If you go back to 1992, the only one left for sure in Clark.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2016, 01:31:24 PM »

Is it really fair to call a county "bellwether" when it contains over 70% of the state's population?
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Nym90
nym90
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2016, 11:59:17 PM »

Is it really fair to call a county "bellwether" when it contains over 70% of the state's population?

Given that fact, it'd be more surprising if it wasn't a bellwether.
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Nym90
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2016, 04:05:09 PM »

Bellwethers for the GOP. No results listed for 2000, so this is just 1996 and 2008-2012:

Carson City
Churchill
Clark
Douglas
Elko
Esmeralda
Eureka
Humboldt
Lander
Lincoln
Lyon
Pershing
Storey
Washoe
White Pine

Not very useful since none of those contests was very competitive.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2016, 05:44:56 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2016, 05:47:22 PM by realisticidealist »

Bellwethers for the GOP. No results listed for 2000, so this is just 1996 and 2008-2012:

Carson City
Churchill
Clark
Douglas
Elko
Esmeralda
Eureka
Humboldt
Lander
Lincoln
Lyon
Pershing
Storey
Washoe
White Pine

Not very useful since none of those contests was very competitive.

In particular, Elko and Churchill tend to be the closest to the state average of the non-Clark counties. Mineral is the parallel for the Dems.
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sportydude
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« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2016, 12:46:43 PM »

Is it really fair to call a county "bellwether" when it contains over 70% of the state's population?

Given that fact, it'd be more surprising if it wasn't a bellwether.

I found a primary where Clark County wasn't a bellwether:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=32&elect=1&off=5&year=2014



Okay, not a presidential primary, but it proves that rural Nevada is able to outvote the state's hegemonic county.
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Nym90
nym90
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2016, 01:05:21 PM »

Interesting. Although, technically Goodman won the primary since votes for "none of these candidates" aren't counted in Nevada. So it depends on what you consider a bellwether in a case like this.

This is the highest office for which "none of these candidates" has ever "won" a primary in Nevada (that option has never won a general election race to my knowledge).
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bagelman
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2016, 04:50:44 PM »

Also Goodman only won Clark County by 1.5%, so it wasn't that difficult for the rural north to outvote that margin.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2016, 09:26:17 PM »

IIRC Shelley Berkley won Clark but lost overall.
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sportydude
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2016, 01:22:01 PM »

IIRC Shelley Berkley won Clark but lost overall.

That's a good example, but a Democratic Nevada primary where the overall winner doesn't win Clark County is much more interesting since almost every Nevada Democrat dwells in that county.
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