Donald Trump's Impact on the Democratic Party

[Frodo]

As Donald Trump reshapes the Republican Party, inevitably there will be some impacts on the Democratic Party -what do you think those would be? 

[Asian Nazi]

It will probably just accelerate current trends, i.e. minorities and affluent whites moving into the Democrat Party while white working class leaves.

[Virginiá]

As VS said, it will definitely accelerate current trends. However, I also think a Trump nomination (let alone a presidency) would serve to harden Hispanic voter reliability just like Goldwater did for African Americans in 1964:



(Note that large drop-off/realignment of the remaining Republican black voters after 64')

It doesn't necessarily take 4 years of Trump to do that - The nomination and months of campaigning will really drive the message home to Hispanics, especially after basically a year and a half come November of offensive proposals and rhetoric, and pitting whites against Hispanics (which may or may not be his intention, but it is what is happening). I can see a relatively weaker trend like this happening with Asians as well.

I can't speak for the white electorate as much with Trump, other than he will most likely bring in a good bit more white working class voters while probably having a net loss of more educated white voters from the party over time. This is a long-term losing strategy though, as the no-college portion of the white electorate is steadily shrinking and is already about even (or less) with the number of college-educated whites.

I guess you could say Trump's strategy may be useful for this election, but it's long-term effects are absolutely nothing but negative for the GOP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Against Hillary, people who have been devestated by "free trade" and people who are anti-war will leave the Democratic party in droves. The Democratic party will be more identity politics and fewer principles.

[RINO Tom]

It will probably just accelerate current trends, i.e. minorities and affluent whites moving into the Democrat Party while white working class leaves.

I must have missed when all these affluent Whites became Democratic.  I mean they couldn't become much more Republican than they were in the '80s, but they're still solidly Republican, and I highly doubt that changes.  Even with Trump.

[YaBoyNY]

Against Hillary, people who have been devestated by "free trade" and people who are anti-war will leave the Democratic party in droves. The Democratic party will be more identity politics and fewer principles.

Yeah, no.

[Orser67]

College-educated whites haven't started voting more Democratic, although (regardless of race) college graduates and post-grads have started leaning more towards Democrats. In the long-term, I think that those trends will continue, Trump or no Trump.

[ag]

Against Hillary, people who have been devestated by "free trade" and people who are anti-war will leave the Democratic party in droves. The Democratic party will be more identity politics and fewer principles.

Free trade is about a principle: improving lives of people.

[Frodo]

Anyone else?

[Person Man]

This is an important discussion. Do we go double down on Clintonism, go far left, or try to get states like Missouri and Ohio vote for us again?

[Person Man]

This is an important discussion. Do we go double down on Clintonism, go far left, or try to get states like Missouri and Ohio vote for us again?

Whether it's the best course of action for the party is up for debate, but it's pretty clear that the Democratic Party is in for sharp leftward shift in coming years. The fact that a self-proclaimed socialist got 40+% in the primary on the backs of white working class and millennial voters alone, without much support from black voters (who are becoming increasingly radicalized in response to the lack of accountability for criminal cops) or Hispanics (who also have the potential to move leftward in response to the rise of xenophobic rhetoric on the right) shows that his wing of the party has much room to grow.

Maybe the Left has a Reagan moment in 2020 or 2024 or some moderate will have to find a way to triangulate all of this 2028 though I am not sure how that can be done. I think we are past the time that we can just be like "imagine how well we will do if we just put someone up there who is pro-life". I mean, do you think nominating someone who simply won't commit to a SCOTUS litmus test or will keep an open mind to personhood laws (though maybe not personhood per se) would gain or lose us votes?

[Virginiá]

This is an important discussion. Do we go double down on Clintonism, go far left, or try to get states like Missouri and Ohio vote for us again?

Ohio and Missouri Millennials have been trending heavily Democratic for at least 12~ years now. Those partisan leanings seem to be sticking in Ohio as they age, but in Missouri not as much.

Either way, if those trends continue, then we're already doing what we need to do to remain (or become) competitive in those states. But, admittedly, we do need to somehow stop the hemorrhaging of white working class voters in the meantime.

[Person Man]

How do Democrats win WWCs without alienating Millenial and Female Middle Class and Minority people?

[Blue3]

How do Democrats win WWCs without alienating Millenial and Female Middle Class and Minority people?

How does a US presidential nominee get over two-thirds of the popular vote in the 21st century?

[Person Man]

How do Democrats win WWCs without alienating Millenial and Female Middle Class and Minority people?

How does a US presidential nominee get over two-thirds of the popular vote in the 21st century?

Yeah. I imagine whatever the post mortem says will be very interesting.

[Lothal1]

I definitely think that there has been more scrutiny for the national Democratic party overall, but not the state organisations.

[Person Man]

I definitely think that there has been more scrutiny for the national Democratic party overall, but not the state organisations.

And there are states that desperately need it.

[RINO Tom]

I definitely think that there has been more scrutiny for the national Democratic party overall, but not the state organisations.

Not familiar with these state Democratic parties.

[White Trash]

How do Democrats win WWCs without alienating Millenial and Female Middle Class and Minority people?

Protectionism, dovish foreign policy.

[Person Man]

How do Democrats win WWCs without alienating Millenial and Female Middle Class and Minority people?

Only by unequivocally rejecting neoliberalism can the Democratic Party regain lost ground among WWCs while also maintaining a firm grip on minority and millennial voters.

So, we are going the entire "The Clintons weren't liberal enough" path. I'm guessing we will revert to Clintonism only if we lose this year, win congress back relatively quickly but can't dislodge a Trumpian Dynasty in the WH.

[All Along The Watchtower]

It will probably just accelerate current trends, i.e. minorities and affluent younger, college-educated, urban, transient, single/part of "non-traditional" families, secular/non-evangelical Protestant, and/or non-Southern whites moving into the Democratic Party while older, less educated, married, geographically settled, rural/exurban, Southern (broadly speaking), evangelical/fundamentalist, more propertied/higher-asset/economically secure whites (continue to) leave the Democratic Party.

Added a lot of needed nuances.

[Fuzzy Bear]

How do Democrats win WWCs without alienating Millenial and Female Middle Class and Minority people?

One way would be for the Democratic Party to start speaking to Americans as Americans, and not as members of separate ethnic groups.

The Democrats made their choice years ago; to be the party of abortion on demand, LGBT protected status, unfettered immigration (legal and illegal), and major focus on the grievances of minority groups.  This choice made them competitive with the GOP nationally, in that they could win the votes of affluent social liberals who would not be threatened by radical economic policies, but it cost them their place as the party of America's Working Class.  And they made it worse by attacking the religious beliefs of the conservative workers who did not wish to run other folks' lives, but didn't want their morals to be dictated from liberal Ivory Towers. 

I suppose after this election there will be a number of "moderate Republicans" rejoining the Democrats, some of whom will drop their pro-life posture once they become Democrats.  Kasich is a possibility, but there are others.  McCain and Flake may well leave the GOP; who knows nowadays.  I would expect the Democratic Party to become MORE free trade and MORE economically conservative, but MORE socially liberal as a result of these changes.

The end result will be that elections will be all about social issues, and minimally about economic issues.  In which case, I'll probably never vote for a Democrat again, given that I'm a social conservative (but not a conservative across the board). 

[All Along The Watchtower]

How do Democrats win WWCs without alienating Millenial and Female Middle Class and Minority people?

One way would be for the Democratic Party to start speaking to Americans as Americans, and not as members of separate ethnic groups.

The Democrats made their choice years ago; to be the party of abortion on demand, LGBT protected status, unfettered immigration (legal and illegal), and major focus on the grievances of minority groups.  This choice made them competitive with the GOP nationally, in that they could win the votes of affluent social liberals who would not be threatened by radical economic policies, but it cost them their place as the party of America's Working Class.  And they made it worse by attacking the religious beliefs of the conservative workers who did not wish to run other folks' lives, but didn't want their morals to be dictated from liberal Ivory Towers. 

I suppose after this election there will be a number of "moderate Republicans" rejoining the Democrats, some of whom will drop their pro-life posture once they become Democrats.  Kasich is a possibility, but there are others.  McCain and Flake may well leave the GOP; who knows nowadays.  I would expect the Democratic Party to become MORE free trade and MORE economically conservative, but MORE socially liberal as a result of these changes.

The end result will be that elections will be all about social issues, and minimally about economic issues.  In which case, I'll probably never vote for a Democrat again, given that I'm a social conservative (but not a conservative across the board). 

Uh, America's working class votes overwhelmingly Democratic. Unless you think that Southern white men = America's working class. Which, given that you're a Trump supporter, you probably do.

[RINO Tom]

How do Democrats win WWCs without alienating Millenial and Female Middle Class and Minority people?

One way would be for the Democratic Party to start speaking to Americans as Americans, and not as members of separate ethnic groups.

The Democrats made their choice years ago; to be the party of abortion on demand, LGBT protected status, unfettered immigration (legal and illegal), and major focus on the grievances of minority groups.  This choice made them competitive with the GOP nationally, in that they could win the votes of affluent social liberals who would not be threatened by radical economic policies, but it cost them their place as the party of America's Working Class.  And they made it worse by attacking the religious beliefs of the conservative workers who did not wish to run other folks' lives, but didn't want their morals to be dictated from liberal Ivory Towers. 

I suppose after this election there will be a number of "moderate Republicans" rejoining the Democrats, some of whom will drop their pro-life posture once they become Democrats.  Kasich is a possibility, but there are others.  McCain and Flake may well leave the GOP; who knows nowadays.  I would expect the Democratic Party to become MORE free trade and MORE economically conservative, but MORE socially liberal as a result of these changes.

The end result will be that elections will be all about social issues, and minimally about economic issues.  In which case, I'll probably never vote for a Democrat again, given that I'm a social conservative (but not a conservative across the board). 

I am undoubtedly more liberal than the vast majority of these Republicans you posture will become Democrats, and I can tell you that this is only happening in your dreams.  This is our party.  We won't let one nominee scare us off, and the vast majority of us Never Trumpers still believe in what the GOP can and should be.  Folks like you joining literally this year aren't going to dictate what we do.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Yeah, I'm a NeverTrumper and I'm still a registered Republican.  I only have a green avatar in protest of my party's nominee.  The Democrats are too far left for me.