UK 'Brexit' Referendum on the EU

[Frodo]

Now that we have a set date (June 23) with a final proposal for British voters to mull over, how do you think the vote will ultimately fall?  Will the UK stay, or leave?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Probably stay, judging by the latest polls. This will be UKIP's Waterloo.

[Phony Moderate]

Probably stay, judging by the latest polls. This will be UKIP's Waterloo.

The Scottish referendum result didn't kill off the SNP (to say the least) and most of UKIP's support rise in recent years is due to issues other than the EU.

[YaBoyNY]

I'm gonna bet on staying.

[YL]

Well, I'm pro-"Remain" by enough to find it difficult to make an objective prediction, and the pessimist in me thinks that the anti-EU media and likely higher turnout in older, more anti-EU demographics, will swing it for "Leave".

OTOH in a referendum the status quo does tend to have an advantage, and the polling at the moment doesn't suggest there are quite enough votes there for "Leave".  So I don't really know, but I hope "Remain" wins.

[ChrisDR68]

My prediction is the the UK will vote to remain in the EU by 55-45%.

That said with Boris coming out in favour of Brexit this could make for a nail biting campaign and results night

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think the more politicians come out in favour of one side, the more likely that side is to fail.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I think that UK will remain in the UK and I just want to note that from unknown reason I after clicking that topic I started to read "CrabCakes" simultaneously playing in my mind tune from Duck Tales. I don't know how to stop it.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

How to create a tornado to wipe you out.

Regardless what the result can be that's the kind of thought that I had.

Ah, and, useless to say that Cameron already shows as a 'European model' for FN here, it 'opens the minds'...

It might open the mind of a lot of other people/countries in Europe too.

And Merkel-Hollande so caring about the so careless UK might not be without consequences too...

How to create a tornado to wipe you and your friends out...

[Clyde1998]

I'm thinking the UK will vote to leave the EU, despite me leaning towards Remaining. If the Scottish Independence movement could get 45% from around 35% support at the start of the official campaign, then it's completely possible.

There are a number of factors here:

• The Leave campaign has more papers backing them [Mail/Express] than both YesScotland had and the Remain campaign [FT] currently has. They'll get a fairer shake of the stick from the media than the Yes campaign in Scotland - more voters will know about both sides of the argument; more potential voters for Leave.
  
• Some polls already show a Leave lead, so there's already ground for the Leave campaign to work on.
• The EU won't come out with a 'Vow'-like pledge in desperation if it looks like the Leave campaign might win.

[ChrisDR68]

Heard Ken Clarke say on the news today that those who are in favour in the UK leaving the EU don't know what they're doing.

Ken, that's pathetic, patronising and wrong

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

People staunchly supporting EU are always patronizing - because those poor, little creatures can't even understand the greatness of European Union project. Why they are against Europe? Why they follow shallow nationalistic interest? sob

(I am pro-EU but such approach like for example presented by ALDE fraction members and other federalists triggers me.)

[Phony Moderate]

Heard Ken Clarke say on the news today that those who are in favour in the UK leaving the EU don't know what they're doing.

Ken, that's pathetic, patronising and wrong

Yes to AV all over again?

[Angel of Death]

Heard Ken Clarke say on the news today that those who are in favour in the UK leaving the EU don't know what they're doing.

Ken, that's pathetic, patronising and wrong

More so than Boris Johnson's fantasy of how a win for Leave could lead to a better deal with the EU (cf. the Iran deal)?

[Cassius]

We will vote to remain in the EU because the general (and in my view unfair) perception will be that it's a choice between following the 'nutters' out of the EU or following the advice of the 'calm, sensible level-headed people' to remain in, as was at least partially the case in the 1975 referendum. I predict this campaign will involve the Remain campaign simultaneously taking the moral and 'intellectual' high ground over those silly outers whilst being really nasty about the advocates of leaving.

[Illiniwek]

If Leave wins, and Cameron is forced to step down, who will be the new PM? Boris? Will they be forced to call for a election for a new Parliament?

[YL]

If Leave wins, and Cameron is forced to step down, who will be the new PM? Boris?

He may not step down, although I think he probably should.  If he does, then ask the Tory party membership.  Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson may well be favourite, but there would be other candidates.

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No, unless they somehow lose their working majority in the Commons.  (And even then, the Opposition would have to do the forcing, which would involve lots of disparate forces working together to do it.)

[Blair]

The daily mail may be an awful disgrace of a newspaper but this is a good read

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3456472/Do-new-toxic-twins-remind-George-Galloway-Nigel-Farage-bring-memories-Tony-Benn-Enoch-Powell-40-years-ago.html

[Frodo]

With the vote just a couple of months away (and with Britain's future in the EU on a knife's edge, judging by President Obama's decision to intervene), has anyone changed their mind about the ultimate outcome of this referendum?

[Derpist]

With the vote just a month away (and with Britain's future in the EU on a knife's edge, judging by President Obama's decision to intervene), has anyone changed their mind about the ultimate outcome of this referendum?

I have. I originally expected a NO outcome, but with Washington trying to order the British electorate how to vote, I've started thinking a YES outcome is more likely.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yeah, I'm sure those bloody Brits are waiting what Washington thinks in order to make their mind up.

[ChrisDR68]

I still think it'll be 55-45% in favour of remain.

Cameron's ruthless campaign designed to play on people's fear of what might happen to the UK economy if there is a Brexit will win the day (unfortunately).

What the majority of Conservative Party members who are Eurosceptic make of their leader and chancellor's role in using every trick in the book to make the UK stay in the hated EU is anyone's guess.

[IceAgeComing]

Every referendum that's been done in the UK that's had significant polling beforehand has seen a swing back towards the status quo on election day; "Leave" really need to have a significant poll lead going into the thing to have a good chance.  The big issue will be turnout; a July election is not usual, and most people believe that Remain voters will be less likely to turn out than Leave voters, although I think that there a more than a few soft "leaves" around that might not show up.  It'll be interesting to see if Scotland continues to have the higher turnout that it had last year in the general, or whether the close proximity to the parliamentary elections will depress things a bit - a high Scottish turnout is big for the Remain campaign since Scotland is possibly the most pro-EU bit of the UK: Northern Ireland is possibly higher but there's been no polling there so no one really knows: it'll be close though.

[Slow Learner]

With the vote just a month away (and with Britain's future in the EU on a knife's edge, judging by President Obama's decision to intervene), has anyone changed their mind about the ultimate outcome of this referendum?

I have. I originally expected a NO outcome, but with Washington trying to order the British electorate how to vote, I've started thinking a YES outcome is more likely.

Those aren't the options tho?

[Angel of Death]

Surely many voters will realize that a Brexit could precipitate a new, possibly successful push for Scottish independence, which must affect their eventual decision.