UK 'Brexit' Referendum on the EU

[ChrisDR68]

Surely many voters will realize that a Brexit could precipitate a new, possibly successful push for Scottish independence, which must affect their eventual decision.

Not with the price of oil being low.

They'd be bankrupt in no time.

[Phony Moderate]

Remain will win based on the notoriously cautious (some would say spineless) attitude of the British electorate. Both of the previous UK-wide referendums result in a two-to-one victory for the status quo; it took a world war to elect a majority socialist government, it took a Winter of Discontent to elect a firmly right-wing government etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The British electorate isn't any more cautious than that of other countries. It is a typically British delusion to believe otherwise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding the possibility of a 'leave' vote as a trigger for another Scottish referendum; this will have no impact on how people vote outside Scotland. The constitutional status of Scotland with the rest of the UK matters infinitely more to people in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, where it really isn't a big issue...

[ChrisDR68]

Remain will win based on the notoriously cautious (some would say spineless) attitude of the British electorate. Both of the previous UK-wide referendums result in a two-to-one victory for the status quo; it took a world war to elect a majority socialist government, it took a Winter of Discontent to elect a firmly right-wing government etc.

The only thing that could stop a remain vote from winning is this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36090188

I wasn't even aware there was a massive Italian banking crisis going on at the moment until I read that article.

Imagine how much affect that would have on this referendum if a new Euro crisis erupted in the early part of June?

The last bit made me chuckle:

It is an indication that while the EU may not be very good at scoring goals, it does find a way to keep the ball in the air.

What would bring it crashing down would be if the political tensions between north and south grew so great that the players lost the will to fight gravity.

[afleitch]

Regarding the possibility of a 'leave' vote as a trigger for another Scottish referendum; this will have no impact on how people vote outside Scotland. The constitutional status of Scotland with the rest of the UK matters infinitely more to people in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, where it really isn't a big issue...

Unless Scotland's votes keep everyone else in (which if it was that narrow wouldn't be the case anyway; see Northern Ireland, London etc; it changes how you cut the cake) then it would have an impact after the event. It's a good way to squeeze concessions from Westminster until 2020.

[beaver2.0]

No.

[ChrisDR68]

In a binary referendum like the one we're having at the moment each side will in effect be coalitions of different motivations. This is my reading of each side:

Bremain coalition

1. Those that believe a federal European superstate is a good idea and that the UK should be subsumed within such a creation (people who are probably in this camp are journalist Polly Toynbee, Tories Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine and Labour's Tony Blair (who always wanted the UK to adopt the Euro)).

2. Those that think the superstate is inevitable and that the UK may as well stay in the EU to try to influence it as much as possible into the British way of thinking. That's probably the bulk of pro-EU Conservatives and most Labour MP's too with the leader of the Remain campaign Alan Johnson likely to be a member.

3. The next group are those that don't have an opinion on whether the Eurozone is heading towards a superstate or not (or who simply don't believe that is what is happening) but worry that a Brexit may damage the UK economy leading to a recession. They also worry about the UK being isolated in the world. This is the group that David Cameron and Lynton Crosby believe will win the campaign for them because it's likely to include a lot of the current don't knows.


Brexit coalition

1. The xenophobic element who dislikes Johnny Foreigner. These are likely to be older people who mainly live in southern England and are staunch Conservative voters.

2. Those that believe immigration is the number one issue in this referendum and believe that leaving the EU will bring back control to the numbers of people coming into this country. Michael Gove's idea of an Australian style points system will strongly appeal to this group (including my mate from work who I play golf with who ironically enough was born in Hong Kong and only came over here when he was 7 ).

3. The third group are the ones that believe national sovereignty is the number one issue of this referendum. They are strongly against the UK becoming absorbed into a European superstate (or even being heavily involved in the way it operates while staying outside it's core). Like me they may have originally been a supporter of the UK becoming a member of the EEC but have turned against it when it's federalising tendency became clear in the late 1980's (Norman Tebbit, Frank Field and David Owen are likely to be in this group).

This is the group that I belong to.

 

 

[Phony Moderate]

I'd add a fourth group to the Brexit coalition:

Those on the radical left who see the EU as a neoliberal institution. George Galloway, Dave Nellist and Tommy Sheridan are in this group, as was the late Tony Benn (though his nationalist instincts played a role in it for him too). Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell may also, privately, be in this group too, along with Kate Hoey and Frank Field - who are not secret about their Euroscepticsm but may be secret radical lefties (Hoey has nominated McDonnell for the leadership and Field has nominated both McDonnell and Corbyn).

Also the 'anti-Johnny Foreigner' types would also include middle-aged Northeners who voted UKIP in 2015.

[ChrisDR68]

I'd add a fourth group to the Brexit coalition:

Those on the radical left who see the EU as a neoliberal institution. George Galloway, Dave Nellist and Tommy Sheridan are in this group, as was the late Tony Benn (though his nationalist instincts played a role in it for him too). Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell may also, privately, be in this group too, along with Kate Hoey and Frank Field - who are not secret about their Euroscepticsm but may be secret radical lefties (Hoey has nominated McDonnell for the leadership and Field has nominated both McDonnell and Corbyn).

Also the 'anti-Johnny Foreigner' types would also include middle-aged Northeners who voted UKIP in 2015.

Yes ok fair enough

What do you make of Corbyn's positioning in this referendum and do you think had he followed his conscience and campaigned for the Brexit side would that have made the crucial difference in determining it's outcome?

[Phony Moderate]

I'd add a fourth group to the Brexit coalition:

Those on the radical left who see the EU as a neoliberal institution. George Galloway, Dave Nellist and Tommy Sheridan are in this group, as was the late Tony Benn (though his nationalist instincts played a role in it for him too). Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell may also, privately, be in this group too, along with Kate Hoey and Frank Field - who are not secret about their Euroscepticsm but may be secret radical lefties (Hoey has nominated McDonnell for the leadership and Field has nominated both McDonnell and Corbyn).

Also the 'anti-Johnny Foreigner' types would also include middle-aged Northeners who voted UKIP in 2015.

Yes ok fair enough

What do you make of Corbyn's positioning in this referendum and do you think had he followed his conscience and campaigned for the Brexit side would that have made the crucial difference in determining it's outcome?

Hard to say; Corbyn has sold out on this particular issue to a large extent but there are many on the left nowadays who are unaware of the traditional leftist opposition to Euro integration that was led by the likes of Benn, Foot and Castle; were to state his real viewpoint on the issue then those left-wing people accuse him of selling out to the right and would probably then go back to Caroline Lucas (who is a genuine Europhile from what I can tell) and the Greens. Some relatively apolitical Labour voters might be swayed by the Labour leader favouring Brexit and some right-wingers who hate Corbyn might be swayed in the other direction. Probably no overall net effect. And let's not even get into the....reaction...of the PLP if the leader declared support for Brexit.

It's obvious that Corbyn has been listening to the PR people more in recent times. Compare his performance on the Queen's birthday to the whole controversy early on in his leadership about the Privy Council.

[ChrisDR68]

I wonder if Remain wins there will be a big bounce in the opinion polls for UKIP similar to what happened to the SNP in Scotland following the independence referendum?

Frank Field who is the MP in the neighbouring constituency to mine certainly thinks it's a possibility:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/26/corbyn-must-address-working-class-eu-concerns-warns-field

It would be interesting to know where he gets the figure of 40% of Labour voters being Eurosceptic.

[IceAgeComing]

Not in any of the most recent polls I've seen - the last yougov had Labour as 30% - although that's looking at crossbreaks which honestly you can't 100% trust (not weighted, small sample sizes, etc).  He might have access to private polling on the matter; and that's something that we're never going to be able to see and confirm the veracity of.

I think that you're also missing a fourth part of the remain campaign - people on the left that see the current EU as a neoliberal entity, but think that we benefit from from being in it than we do from being outside (the economic benefits, stuff like free movement which is a good thing for internationalists, plus also some of the policies on workers rights (the WTD, minimum number of paid holidays, etc) which aren't exactly going to be bettered by future Tory governments, while they can be if we remain in the EU.  The argument is also that the EU can be reformed to work better (become more democratic, protect the interests on working class people rather than big business, perhaps also loosening state aid regs), but that reform has to come from being on the inside fighting for it rather than shouting into the wind outside.  This seems to be Corbyn's opinion on the matter and the opinion of the Labour party more broadly: I think that it also summarises the pro-EU Greens as well.  I think that its also something that lots of people in the UK believe; that the European idea is not fundamentally broken but that the current direction of the EU is a negative thing that can be changed.

I'm a pro-remain person and always have been; pretty much for the above reasons.  There's also partly some selfish reasons in there: I'm currently applying for some jobs in Europe (including some with various EU departments in Brussels) and leaving the EU would obviously make that either a lot harder or impossible - unless we retained free movement but then what's the point of leaving if you're going to ignore the primary issue of the campaign?  I'm pretty sure that you'll find a big age gap: younger people will generally be more pro-remain, perhaps for idealistic reasons, perhaps because UKIP and the Tories are leading the remain campaign and that's a bit yucky, perhaps just because the EU basically as it is (post-Maastricht, the EU hasn't really changed that much) and so the move away from the status quo is more pronounced.  Could be wrong though; I've seen no polling on it so its based on personal experiences and a hunch

[Vega]

It seems like with Obama's recent visit more people are saying the Special Relationship is dead, which is weird.

[Frodo]

Less than a couple of weeks now.  

[Silent Hunter]

Yes and I wish it was over already...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes and I wish it was over already...

^^^

The worst of politics complied and condensed into snack bar form.

[Mr. Morden]

A couple of stupid questions about this:

-If the Brexit referendum passes, what’s the timeline for the UK’s departure from the EU?  When would it happen?

-If it passes, is Cameron likely to quit or be forced out as PM within the year?

[Silent Hunter]

A couple of stupid questions about this:

-If the Brexit referendum passes, what’s the timeline for the UK’s departure from the EU?  When would it happen?

There would be a need to repeal the relevant legislation and there would be two years to negotiate a relationship post-Brexit with the rest of the EU as per the Lisbon Treaty.

[Blue3]

If the UK leaves the EU, then they should let Scotland leave the UK and join the EU.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There would be a need to repeal the relevant legislation and there would be two years to negotiate a relationship post-Brexit with the rest of the EU as per the Lisbon Treaty.

And this is assuming the least complicated of post LEAVE vote scenarios. The awful prospect of permareferendums is higher than 0%...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If the UK leaves the EU, then they should let Scotland leave the UK and join the EU.

They gave Scotland that chance. They said no. Their loss.

[IceAgeComing]

well the whole EU thing was a rather big part of the No sides argument...

Although there's no guarantee how Scotland would vote in an independence referendum after a successful Brexit vote; the current polls suggest a similar margin to last time but polls for what is still an abstract issue aren't always particularly accurate...

[MaxQue]

If the UK leaves the EU, then they should let Scotland leave the UK and join the EU.

They gave Scotland that chance. They said no. Their loss.

One of the big arguments of the No was "Stay in UK to stay in EU".

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's interesting because the only country more delusional irt the ability to negotiate with the EU than the UK is Scotland itself.