Is Ted Cruz Done?

[Asian Nazi]

Okay, so we all know that Ted Cruz isn't eligible to be president anyway, but bear with me for a second.

It's looking like our Canadian friend might be finishing THIRD tonight.  If Cruz can't win South Carolina, a state where over 70% of GOP voters were white evangelicals, where can he win?

Is tonight the end of Rafael Eduardo Cruz?

[Frodo]

If he underperforms on Super Tuesday, then yes, we can stick a fork in him. 

[Mike Thick]

I imagine he'll stick it out for a while longer, but if he can't win South Carolina I don't really see a plausible path to the nomination for him.

[Illiniwek]

Yep. With the impossible delegate math and not being able to win the first southern state ends it.

[IceSpear]

I forget where I read it (I think FiveThirtyEight), but Cruz is actually in a much bigger hole than it appears. Most of his best states (including TX) are proportional, whereas most of his worst states are winner take all.

[RR1997]

No. He has a much better chance than Rubio to win the nomination. He underperformed in SC, but he could easily win a lot of Super Tuesday states like Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado, and Tennesse. Trump is still going to win the nomination, but Cruz will most likely come in a close second.

[JMT]

I don't think so. He will stay in the race till Super Tuesday to see how he does in the southern states. Texas votes Super Tuesday as well, and since he is the senator there, he most likely will win and pick up some delegates. So I think he's in the race for a little longer.

[JMT]

But if Cruz somehow loses Texas to Trump on Super Tuesday he is done for sure.

[Maxwell]

Cruz will continue to run, and may even win another primary or two - but he will not win the nomination.

[Fuzzy Bear]

One of the commentators I was listening to explained the difference between "Evangelicals" in Iowa and "Evangelicals" in South Carolina.  In Iowa, Evangelicals are a special group, tightly knit.  In South Carolina, Evangelicals are MAINSTREAM.  South Carolina has been determined to be America's most religious state based on church membership, attitudes, etc.; the "Business Republican" in South Carolina is an Evangelical, the retired veteran is likely an Evangelical, etc.

In this environment, Cruz isn't going to get "Evangelicals" as a bloc, as he would in Iowa.  It's not that bad.  Cruz has been caught in the snare of trying to prove he's the "true conservative"; that's not what this year's race is about.  Trump is winning across the board; he's won some conservative counties, but he's also won moderate areas, and he's winning every South Carolina Congressional District as I post this.

What hurts Cruz is that Movement Conservatives have a tough call here.  Cruz is the truest Movement Conservative, but Rubio, until he went soft on immigration, was considered a Movement Conservative with support from Movement Conservatives.  Trump, on the other hand, is NOT a Movement Conservative, and there is debate as to how much of a conservative Trump really is, but Trump has taken the kind of aggressive nationalistic posture that is normally the province of Movement Conservatism.  It's not a given that Cruz's supporters will all go to Rubio, especially those who are big on the immigration issue.

[IceSpear]

No. He has a much better chance than Rubio to win the nomination. He underperformed in SC, but he could easily win a lot of Super Tuesday states like Texas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado, and Tennesse. Trump is still going to win the nomination, but Cruz will most likely come in a close second.

Cruz's most favorable states are heavily proportional. His least favorable are heavily winner take all. The math doesn't add up, unless he performs so strongly on Super Tuesday that he gets massive momentum.

[Lyin' Steve]

Manchado Eduardo still has a few tricks up his sleeve.

[Xing]

He's not quite done yet. Super Tuesday should actually be better for him than Rubber Ducky. Still, though, he's a longshot, especially if he can't beat Trump in the South.

[Figueira]

Normally I'd say yes, but the dynamics of a three-way race are such that he still has a small chance.

[Averroës Nix]

Except as a spoiler, yes.

[Mehmentum]

Normally I'd say yes, but the dynamics of a three-way race are such that he still has a small chance.

[Thomas D]

No. Just like Trump wasn't done after IA and Rubio wasn't done after NH.

[Orser67]

No, let's see how he does on Super Tuesday. If on that day Trump repeats his ten point margin of victory in South Carolina across other states in the South, then sure, we can declare Cruz's candidacy dead.

[Reginald]

He has almost no path whatsoever. The establishment would literally prefer Trump.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I have a very hard time seeing his path to the nomination. Evangelicals actually voted for Trump, and the "very conservative" group isn't backing him be the margins he needs. Many have supported Rubio.

I could see him only winning Texas on March 1 and losing all the other states.

[Young Conservative]

Since when does a .1 loss in SC to Rubio mean he's done but being 6 points behind Cruz in NH means he's the next nominee? Lets stop this narrative that Rubio is the top dog when he's yet to win anything. Cruz will continue and keep climbing guaranteed

[Skye]

I wouldn't say he's done (as usual), but he's not in a place he'd want to be. SC wasn't good for him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sadly, he probably is.

RIP sweet prince of darkness.

[IceSpear]

Okay, found it. Why Ted Cruz has very little chance of winning the nomination in one chart:

[defe07]

No, let's see how he does on Super Tuesday. If on that day Trump repeats his ten point margin of victory in South Carolina across other states in the South, then sure, we can declare Cruz's candidacy dead.

Cruz would need to overperform in NV and hope to get second place there to have a decent Super Tuesday. He would need to win at least 7 states on Super Tuesday: AK, TX, WY, MN, CO, OK and TN or VA, in order to stay strong. Should he get third in NV, he still needs to get at least 4 or 5 states to have a good ST and hope that Rubio and Kasich can win in MA, VA, VT to weaken Trump.