Will Rubio surge after tonight's results?
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  Will Rubio surge after tonight's results?
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Author Topic: Will Rubio surge after tonight's results?  (Read 3013 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: February 20, 2016, 09:19:55 PM »

He is 99% likely to finish 2nd and he knocked Jeb out of the race, but will he surge?
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2016, 09:21:37 PM »

The media will definitely fall in love with him again, but whether that leads to a surge, I can't say.
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Penelope
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2016, 09:21:39 PM »

On predictions markets, yes. This will propel him to a SHOCKING UPSET 2nd place finish in NV and INCREDIBLE COMEBACK 3rd place finishes across the south.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2016, 09:21:54 PM »

He'll increase, but I don't think it'll be a surge per se. In all likelihood, Trump will still dominate.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2016, 09:22:24 PM »

Predictably, he has already surged in betting markets:

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1233/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2016, 09:23:23 PM »

He'll get a bit of a bump, but it's not like he finished 1% behind Trump...
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Blue3
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2016, 09:23:26 PM »

He'll increase, but I don't think it'll be a surge per se. In all likelihood, Trump will still dominate.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2016, 09:27:28 PM »

On predictions markets, yes. This will propel him to a SHOCKING UPSET 2nd place finish in NV and INCREDIBLE COMEBACK 3rd place finishes across the south.

LOL.

Well, he doesn't have to worry about Christie sending him into a programming loop on live TV, but if Trump goes after him, he might well halt and catch fire on live TV.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2016, 09:33:21 PM »

Yes, he will surge to second place overall in the primaries, opening up a clear path to a lucrative career in the beltway.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2016, 09:33:37 PM »

Yes. Rubio is the anti-Trump the GOP has been waiting for. Maybe I'm naive, but I just can't see the GOP nominating someone who basically blames G. W. Bush for 9/11.
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Orser67
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2016, 09:34:45 PM »

Yes, at least partly because Bush dropping out will improve Rubio's polling.
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Lemmiwinks
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2016, 09:40:31 PM »

Yes, but not enough to win. I'm not even sure he'll win a state on Super Tuesday.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2016, 10:28:23 PM »

Likely. I've now made peace with voting for him on March 1.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2016, 10:36:45 PM »

Will the sun rise in the east?
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2016, 10:37:34 PM »

Yes, but probably mainly because Jeb dropped out.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2016, 10:38:34 PM »

He and Cruz will "surge" to a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 race with Trump.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2016, 10:41:45 PM »

He'll increase, but I don't think it'll be a surge per se. In all likelihood, Trump will still dominate.

This.

There are three lanes in the GOP.  There are the Populist Conservatives, which Trump represents.  There are Movement Conservatives, which is the province of Cruz.  And there is the Establishment, a vacuum which Rubio is now filling.  Religious conservatives are a fourth group, but in this race, they are split between these three lanes.

If Rubio gets all of the "Establishment votes, he'll be about even with Trump, and a smidge ahead of Cruz.  He can't win with just Establishment votes.  There's also the Carson votes, which are about to go somewhere else, and these folks are far more likely to go to Trump or Cruz than Rubio (although Cruz now has some problems with these folks).  What is even more telling is that Donald Trump won all over South Carolina.  He won in some super-conservative Evangelical counties, but he won in metro Charleston as well, and that area is more moderate and Establishmentarian.  There is every reason to believe that Rubio will not get all of Jeb's supporters.  He may have if Jeb had endorsed Rubio tonight, but he didn't.  Trump is the clear frontrunner now, and the favorite for the nomination at this point.  He's not a prohibitive favorite, but Rubio would have to spin like a supercollider in order to convince people that he's somehow a favorite.
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defe07
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2016, 11:59:57 PM »

On predictions markets, yes. This will propel him to a SHOCKING UPSET 2nd place finish in NV and INCREDIBLE COMEBACK 3rd place finishes across the south.

Thisss!!! But what if Kasich and Carson drop out after NV, for example? And Rubio does finish 3rd in all the Super Tuesday Southern states. You finish third out of 3 and see it as a victory? No way! At least you'd have a case with 2nd place finishes across the Southern states but not 3rd place! Tongue
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RodPresident
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2016, 12:06:45 AM »

Scalia's death made GOP establishment to come to sense that they need to rally together to prevent a President Clinton and that Trump gets nomination very early. Then Rubio had a comeback as he hasn't rejection of Jeb and he has campaign structure that lacks to Kasich.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2016, 12:08:32 AM »

Yes. Rubio is the anti-Trump that Trump has been waiting for.

Corrected.

Trump will slaughter Rubio.
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Bigby
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« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2016, 12:09:46 AM »

Yes. Rubio is the anti-Trump that Trump has been waiting for.

Corrected.

Trump will slaughter Rubio.

I must concur with the wise Oklahoman. Trump will be even more brutal than Christie, so brutal that Rubio may start crying at one point.
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RI
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« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2016, 12:10:23 AM »

Not much, no. The headlines aren't about Rubio, and Bush was negligible in most polling anyway.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2016, 12:31:19 AM »

I think Rubio is an empty suit and trump will just destroy them
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P123
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« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2016, 01:11:43 AM »

No, its GG for him. He's not going to win Nevada, and theirs no states for him to win on super tuesday.

He likely wont win a single primary, but the media will keep shilling for him
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Fargobison
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« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2016, 01:14:53 AM »

No, its GG for him. He's not going to win Nevada, and theirs no states for him to win on super tuesday.

He likely wont win a single primary, but the media will keep shilling for him

He could do well in MN, CO, VA or VT. There are states for him, especially if the establishment moves around him.

He did well in SC, VA should be a better. Last poll had Trump +6 which isn't exactly insurmountable. 
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