Will Rubio win at least one Super Tuesday state?

[ElectionsGuy]

Nope. I'm going to be bold and say he won't win a single state throughout the whole process (not including territories and DC which he may/probably win).

[defe07]

Maybe he'll only win VA and VT. However, he could get 2nd in most of the Super Tuesday states. And AK did go to Romney in 2012, even though Paul was favored to win there. So, a decent night for Rubio would be for him to win VA+VT and get a string of 2nd place finishes in most of the other states. However, it seems like Super Tuesday will be split between Trump and Cruz, unless Rubio somehow manages to win NV. Should he win NV, which seems hard, he'll get media mo' and will go through my 1st scenario. If not, it's going to be hard for him.

[Maxwell]

Vermont is his only shot. Romney got 17% in Minnesota in 2012, Rubio isn't going to win it.

Minnesota is probably Cruz-nation, but I will say that Rubio has been doing better than Romney among evangelicals, and Romney also won Minnesota in 2008. So it's entirely possible.

[Fargobison]

I think he wins MN, a highly education state should be a good state for Rubio. Cruz is also taking on water right now.

He could win VA or VT but he may have a Kasich problem.

[Maxwell]

Vermont is the one state I think the top two are Trump and Kasich. Rubio has had a very conservative  campaign - he's basically been campaigning as Ted Cruz lite - and he has very little appeal with the moderates that vote there. Kasich's message fits right in with that state. Trump, however, has this universal appeal and will probably beat Kasich, maybe by ten or more.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think he wins MN, a highly education state should be a good state for Rubio. Cruz is also taking on water right now.

He could win VA or VT but he may have Kasich problem.

I would agree with you if it was a primary, but its a caucus, a caucus state that was one of Santorum's best state (clearly not representative of all its Republican voters).

And I have to ask, why does everyone think Rubio will do good in Virginia? The DC suburbs? Is that it?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I think he wins MN, a highly education state should be a good state for Rubio. Cruz is also taking on water right now.

He could win VA or VT but he may have Kasich problem.

I would agree with you if it was a primary, but its a caucus, a caucus state that was one of Santorum's best state (clearly not representative of all its Republican voters).

And I have to ask, why does everyone think Rubio will do good in Virginia? The DC suburbs? Is that it?

I think that's part of it, plus the fact that Trump hasn't managed to break 30 in the polls there, but demographically, most Republican voters are going to be in the very rural parts of the state, which I think people tend to ignore.

[/]

He'll take Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Vermont.

[Fargobison]

I think he wins MN, a highly education state should be a good state for Rubio. Cruz is also taking on water right now.

He could win VA or VT but he may have Kasich problem.

I would agree with you if it was a primary, but its a caucus, a caucus state that was one of Santorum's best state (clearly not representative of all its Republican voters).

And I have to ask, why does everyone think Rubio will do good in Virginia? The DC suburbs? Is that it?

I don't think Rubio really has Romney's issues though. Which played into Santorum's brief big surge. I can see them going for the best anti-Trump. Who knows though, it is a caucus and it is MN.

I do think Rubio is helped by Cruz having to defend what was supposed to be his southern stronghold.

[useful idiot]

And I have to ask, why does everyone think Rubio will do good in Virginia? The DC suburbs? Is that it?

Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond burbs are all good for Rubio. Plenty of business and military oriented Republicans who are too educated for Trump and too establishment for Cruz. Obviously most of rural VA is going to be Trump country and you'll see some Cruz counties here and there. However, McCain cracked 50% there, with Huckster still in the race in 08 (obviously 12 was a wash with only Romney and Paul on the ballot). Also, the evangelicals in VA are going to be much more friendly to Rubio than they were to McCain (Rubio won college educated evangelicals in SC). With Bush out, it will be tight...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

He'll take Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Vermont.

Oh come on

I figured I was going to have to dispel the Vermont hysteria, but Massachusetts too? 55% Catholic voters in 2012. It's not going to happen for Rubio.

[politicallpd]

MA is strong TRUMP territory. Trump could win by over 50%.

Rubio might win Colorado and Minnesota, but thats it. Won't be enough to do anything.

Unfortunately this seems to be true. For the reputation Massachusetts Republicans seem to get for being moderates, when you look at the ideologies of local activists, they're pretty right-wing. See Charlie Baker struggling with the state committee and failing to shut Mark Fisher, a nobody, out at the convention in 2014.

[Asian Nazi]

Unfortunately this seems to be true. For the reputation Massachusetts Republicans seem to get for being moderates, when you look at the ideologies of local activists, they're pretty right-wing. See Charlie Baker struggling with the state committee and failing to shut Mark Fisher, a nobody, out at the convention in 2014.

TRUMP is a moderate

[Fuzzy Bear]

Vermont and Massachusetts are possible.  I wonder if Charlie Baker can get something going for Marco.

I don't think Marco will win a single Southern state, and that's what's going to hurt.

[Gass3268]

Massachusetts could be Trump's best state on Super Tuesday. It's a Trump lock state.

[Maxwell]

Vermont and Massachusetts are possible.  I wonder if Charlie Baker can get something going for Marco.

I don't think Marco will win a single Southern state, and that's what's going to hurt.

Baker would rather endorse Kasich, and if it came down to it I wouldn't be surprised if Baker didn't endorse Rubio at all.