Early Election 2016 Prediction: Donald Trump Wins!

[DS0816]

Enough of the primaries/caucuses have played out to give us a likely matchup of Donald Trump (R-New York) vs. Hillary Clinton (D-New York) with Election 2016.

"Conventional wisdom," from the past several months, would have us believe Clinton wins this comfortably.

I don't think so.

The turnout, from the first two caucus/primary states [Iowa and New Hampshire], are the beginning indication that, come the general election, the Republican numbers will be more enthusiastic than the Democratic ones for participation. The 18 to 29 voting-age group in the Democrats' first three calendar states—Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada—show that longtime frontrunner Hillary Clinton loses party-nomination support, to rival Bernie Sanders, by 4-to-1 levels. And the national polls (like from Quinnipiac University) showing that Bernie Sanders can beat just about every Republican while Hillary Clinton loses to just about every Republican, in the general election, indicate that the Democratic voters are poised to back the wrong horse for nomination. But, by opting for Hillary Clinton, they will get to say that their party had the first woman presidential nominee…and the party establishment, devoted to Hillary Clinton and laboring hard to squash the insurgent candidacy of Bernie Sanders, will breathe a sigh of relief that their behind-the-scenes comforts will be preserved. (To the Bernie Sanders supporters: They can get another liberal actually nominated the next time the presidency will flip from the Republican to Democratic columns.)

What I predict will happen is this: Months ago, the Republicans were considered a mess. But, I think the Democrats—with those earlier hidden debates, the conspiratorial effort (from what seems a minimum of 80 percent of every alive, current and former party office holder coming out with pre-primaries endorsements for just one candidate, Hillary Clinton); strong unlikeable (over likable) polling numbers (from Quinnipiac University at the very least), for Hillary Clinton; and the cyclical historical pattern (after two terms of one party in the presidency, a third consecutive party winner, minus a 1904 Teddy Roosevelt, tends to underperform the party's second-cycle result)—are pointing in the direction of a Republican presidential pickup with Election 2016.

Many have laughed at, and dismissed, Donald Trump. However, he has mastered focused media coverage to the point that the Emmy Awards could not create a special category to sufficiently honor his unique achievement. But, as is so often the case, conventional wisdom likes to deliver memes on who is and who is not capable of winning election to the presidency. This is the same type of conventional wisdom that told us, since television, that a Catholic (John Kennedy), a former actor (Ronald Reagan), and a person who is black (Barack Obama) would just not be permitted election to the presidency of the United States. This is the same kind of perspective that says that about a reality-competition host (Donald Trump) and a Democratic Socialist (Bernie Sanders).

The Republicans are backing the right candidate for them. The Democrats are not.

Score 2016 as a Republican presidential pickup.

Donald Trump, not Hillary Clinton, will be the 45th president of the United States.

Potential map (considering an 8- to 10-point national Republican shift, from 2012, for 2016)

ELECTION 2016 [Potential]
Donald Trump (R-New York), 52 percent (352 electoral votes)—Pickup!
Hillary Clinton (D-New York), 46 percent (186 electoral votes)

[President Johnson]

He might win, but not that much.

[Bigby]

He might win, but not that much.

I think he will win, but not New Mexico. Y'all already know why.

[This account no longer in use.]

kek

Also, wrong color scheme.

[Xing]

Trump won't win by that much. Rubio, on the other hand, could win 400+ EV against Clinton.

[Zache]

*Bookmarked for November 9th

[Torie]

The polls show that about 40% of the Pub voters loathe Trump. When was the last time someone got the Pub nomination with a 40% loathe factor?

[President Johnson]

This is more realistic:

Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor John Kasich (R-OH)*: 301 EV. (50.27%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): 237 EV. (48.65%)

* _{(or former Senator Scott Brown (R-NH))}

[Ljube]

The polls show that about 40% of the Pub voters loathe Trump. When was the last time someone got the Pub nomination with a 40% loathe factor?

But 20% of the Dem voters LOVE TRUMP. They count for two. Plus, most of those 40% who loathe TRUMP will actually come home by November.

[ProudModerate2]

Potential map (considering an 8- to 10-point national Republican shift, from 2012, for 2016)

ELECTION 2016 [Potential]
Donald Trump (R-New York), 52 percent (366 electoral votes)—Pickup!
Hillary Clinton (D-New York), 46 percent (172 electoral votes)

Wow !
Some Trump supporters are delusional.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

DS0816 is the farthest thing from a Trump supporter, but I do agree that Trump doesn't have a prayer in the Upper Midwest. They are as anti-Catholic as it comes.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Donald Trump/(some establishment figure): 301 Electoral Votes: 49.52%
Hillary Clinton/(some liberal figure): 211 Electoral Votes  48.74%

[psychprofessor]

It isn't that complicated - women are a larger share of the electorate than men; the hispanic share of the electorate is increasing and the white non-college educated share is decreasing.

Trump is not going to win barring some unforseen intervention. He won't win women; he will lose Hispanics and AA's by large percentages; his unfavorables are the worst of any candidate. He will get slaughtered in the media for espousing twenty different stances on any given day. A small slice of the Rep electorate loves this "tough talk" but no one else does. He is winning states with McCain type percentages. Is he ever going to break 50% somewhere, in any state, in his own primary?

[Ljube]

It isn't that complicated - women are a larger share of the electorate than men; the hispanic share of the electorate is increasing and the white non-college educated share is decreasing.

Trump is not going to win barring some unforseen intervention. He won't win women; he will lose Hispanics and AA's by large percentages; his unfavorables are the worst of any candidate. He will get slaughtered in the media for espousing twenty different stances on any given day. A small slice of the Rep electorate loves this "tough talk" but no one else does. He is winning states with McCain type percentages. Is he ever going to break 50% somewhere, in any state, in his own primary?

I hope all Dems are like you. I know the Dem establishment is.

[psychprofessor]

It isn't that complicated - women are a larger share of the electorate than men; the hispanic share of the electorate is increasing and the white non-college educated share is decreasing.

Trump is not going to win barring some unforseen intervention. He won't win women; he will lose Hispanics and AA's by large percentages; his unfavorables are the worst of any candidate. He will get slaughtered in the media for espousing twenty different stances on any given day. A small slice of the Rep electorate loves this "tough talk" but no one else does. He is winning states with McCain type percentages. Is he ever going to break 50% somewhere, in any state, in his own primary?

I hope all Dems are like you. I know the Dem establishment is.

Trump will not be able to win on personality alone. He will need to articulate a host of positions, in detail, with clarity. Telling people in a general election that a wall will be built and Mexico will pay for it won't fly. Telling people his idea of healthcare is not letting people die on the streets won't fly. Shouting that he will repeal Obamacare and replace it with something better won't fly. This guy will be exposed so bad that I think the Dems take back the Senate, too.

[psychprofessor]

It isn't that complicated - women are a larger share of the electorate than men; the hispanic share of the electorate is increasing and the white non-college educated share is decreasing.

Trump is not going to win barring some unforseen intervention. He won't win women; he will lose Hispanics and AA's by large percentages; his unfavorables are the worst of any candidate. He will get slaughtered in the media for espousing twenty different stances on any given day. A small slice of the Rep electorate loves this "tough talk" but no one else does. He is winning states with McCain type percentages. Is he ever going to break 50% somewhere, in any state, in his own primary?

I hope all Dems are like you. I know the Dem establishment is.

Oh, and let me know when he actually breaks 50% in his own primary. Still waiting for that to happen with all these "low energy" losers he is running against.

[Torie]

The polls show that about 40% of the Pub voters loathe Trump. When was the last time someone got the Pub nomination with a 40% loathe factor?

But 20% of the Dem voters LOVE TRUMP. They count for two. Plus, most of those 40% who loathe TRUMP will actually come home by November.

Assuming arguendo that were true, that just leaves the Pub nomination for Trump to win, with 40% of the primary voters loathing him. When has that happened before?

[Ljube]

The polls show that about 40% of the Pub voters loathe Trump. When was the last time someone got the Pub nomination with a 40% loathe factor?

But 20% of the Dem voters LOVE TRUMP. They count for two. Plus, most of those 40% who loathe TRUMP will actually come home by November.

Assuming arguendo that were true, that just leaves the Pub nomination for Trump to win, with 40% of the primary voters loathing him. When has that happened before?

The Art of the Deal. Need I say more?

[Maxwell]

The polls show that about 40% of the Pub voters loathe Trump. When was the last time someone got the Pub nomination with a 40% loathe factor?

But 20% of the Dem voters LOVE TRUMP. They count for two. Plus, most of those 40% who loathe TRUMP will actually come home by November.

Assuming arguendo that were true, that just leaves the Pub nomination for Trump to win, with 40% of the primary voters loathing him. When has that happened before?

Poll after poll showed Mitt Romney with horrible favorable ratings with REPUBLICANS, sometimes approaching 50%. If Romney can coalesce Republicans to hold their noses and vote for him, Donald Trump certainly can.

[Torie]

The polls show that about 40% of the Pub voters loathe Trump. When was the last time someone got the Pub nomination with a 40% loathe factor?

But 20% of the Dem voters LOVE TRUMP. They count for two. Plus, most of those 40% who loathe TRUMP will actually come home by November.

Assuming arguendo that were true, that just leaves the Pub nomination for Trump to win, with 40% of the primary voters loathing him. When has that happened before?

The Art of the Deal. Need I say more?

Filing bankruptcy won't get Trump the nomination in this instance.

[AmericanNation]

Yep, MN might not ever happen, but it could start polling like a mirage.  Penn is almost certain to move to Trump's collumn, MI will move that way, WI is razor close without Obama on the ballot. 

[LLR]

LOL

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Hahaha no

[This account no longer in use.]

You delusional people.

[RaphaelDLG]

People are smoking CRACK if they think MN is going to Trump this cycle.