Is China Following in Japan's Foot-Steps to Economic Stagnation?
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  Is China Following in Japan's Foot-Steps to Economic Stagnation?
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Author Topic: Is China Following in Japan's Foot-Steps to Economic Stagnation?  (Read 590 times)
Frodo
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« on: February 21, 2016, 01:55:37 PM »

WILL CHINA FOLLOW JAPAN INTO ECONOMIC STAGNATION?

BY BILL POWELL ON 2/15/16 AT 10:28 AM

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snowguy716
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2016, 11:00:47 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2016, 11:04:07 PM by Snowguy716 »

I've been saying this for a few years now.  It would largely be driven by demographic age structure of the population.  The working age population of China began to shrink in 2012 and so all the growth in population is occurring in the 60+ category.  

It won't be like Japan because China still has opportunity to grow.  But the heady days of the 90s and 00s are over and won't come back to China.  They will grow in place now with a shrinking trickle into the cities.  But they still have lots of room for domestic consumption growth so that will continue a while longer yet.
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Blue3
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2016, 11:14:43 PM »

It might not be quite as bad as Japan's, but yes, China has a Demographic Time Bomb.

It also has other issues, like a "house of cards" banking system, lots of corruption, environmental devastation (Flint x1,000,000), and ethnic problems with several significant secessionist movements.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2016, 11:16:37 PM »

I don't think it'll be a time bomb.  The government will have to slowly allow reforms and give more to the people when and if stagnation kicks in.

It'll definitely be a test for the Chinese government.
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Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2016, 07:38:52 AM »

If "The Donald" enters a trade war, then cancels the Naional Trrasury Bonds they own, they will surely go into economic decline.

But stagnation may come naturally after auch a red hot growth period.
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