if edwards is picked, can he win north carolina?

[© tweed]

No... no... no... it's got more competative at Presidential level as well... compare VA 1988 to VA 2000

I don't see much of a difference:

2000


1988

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The GOP wins in NOVA in 1988 were a *lot* bigger than in 2000

[??????????]

Any state could swing. It all just depends on voter turnout. Virginia is as Republican as it ever was. Just because they have a Democratic governer doesn't mean they are trend Democrat. You've blasted me on this before when I talk about Jeb Bush winning by a landslide here in Florida thus making us more GOP. Even though I believe Florida is strong GOP this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any state could swing. It all just depends on voter turnout. Virginia is as Republican as it ever was. Just because they have a Democratic governer doesn't mean they are trend Democrat. You've blasted me on this before when I talk about Jeb Bush winning by a landslide here in Florida thus making us more GOP. Even though I believe Florida is strong GOP this year.

VA is less Republican than it was in 1988 (it's difficult to argue against this. Quite how far it's swung is debatable)... but I'll agree with you, Florida is stronger GOP than it has been for about 10 years.

[agcatter]

Agreed that Va is less Republican than it was in 98.  Not in danger of going Kerry mind you, but less Republican.  Bush will win it by 6 to 9 pts depending on how things go in the news.

[classical liberal]

I would say more of a 3-6 point Bush win.  The GOP has lost NOVA and probably Hampton as well.  Thus the 8 point lead of 2000 mush shrink.

[zachman]

In a dead heat Bush would win Virginia by 5.5%. Virginia is about one election behind the patterns of Colorado.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republican totals in some NOVA counties and cities:

Fairfax:

1988: 61.1%
2000: 49.8%

without Nader Gore would've likely won Fairfax.

Falls Church:

1988: 49.5%
2000: 38.1%

Arlington:

1988: 45.4%
2000: 34.2%

Alexandria:

1988: 45.7%
2000: 34.5%

yes, there's a change.

and let's look at the Virginia Beach area

Virginia Beach:

1988: 68.9%
2000: 55.9%

Newport News:

1988: 59.9%
2000: 46.7%

Chesapeake:

1988: 60.9%
2000: 53.2%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I would say more of a 3-6 point Bush win.  The GOP has lost NOVA and probably Hampton as well.  Thus the 8 point lead of 2000 mush shrink.

Gore won Hampton by almost 20 points. So yes, they have. They lost Newport News too as I pointed about. And of course in 1988 Bush I got 54.8% in Hampton vs. 40.8% for Bush II in 2000.

[classical liberal]

not Hampton proper, the hampton area.