Election Odds

[Ryan]

Bin Ladin is probably dead!! The guy was on dialysis and given that he would be hanging out in (and shuttling between) caves these days without the latest in medical technology, the odds on him being hale and hearty are not good.

Besides doesnt it strike you as odd that a guy so fond of videotape messages has chosen to restrict himself to very unclear audio-tapes of late???

Obviously you see the reason Al Quaida wants to pretend he is alive?? Neo-Nazis insisted that Hitler was in fact alive and preparing a master plan to resurrect the Reich till well after he WOULD have been a hundred years old

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as WMD goes I could hide a barrel of Anthrax on moor near where I live and no-one would be able to find it.

[Demrepdan]

Bin Ladin is probably dead!! The guy was on dialysis and given that he would be hanging out in (and shuttling between) caves these days without the latest in medical technology, the odds on him being hale and hearty are not good.

Besides doesnt it strike you as odd that a guy so fond of videotape messages has chosen to restrict himself to very unclear audio-tapes of late???

Obviously you see the reason Al Quaida wants to pretend he is alive?? Neo-Nazis insisted that Hitler was in fact alive and preparing a master plan to resurrect the Reich till well after he WOULD have been a hundred years old

I don't think Bin Laden is dead. You said it yourself, that the neo-Nazis attempted to convince the world that Adolf Hitler was still alive, but eventually, eventually, the truth will leaked out. We now know (actually we knew for sure less than 4 years after the war) that Hitler is dead! You can't keep a secret forever. If Bin Laden is dead, we are gonna learn about this sooner or later, and it won't take until AFTER the Bush administration to find out if he is dead. Assuming Bush is re-elected again, and serves until 2009. I'm the type of person that likes to have substantial evidence, and not be told that something is so, without me seeing it. Maybe thats why I stopped believing in Santa Claus years ago. I wanna see Bin Laden's body. Saddam's too. Is that too much to ask?

P.S. Santa DOES exist! (I doubt any children visit this forum, but if they do, I think I covered that up pretty well.) HO HO HO!

[© tweed]

11.26.03

Bush's re-election chances: 70%

Bush v. each Dem major candidate:

John Kerry: 60%
Howard dean: 75%
John Edwards: 50%
Wesley clark: 55%
Joe Lieberman: 55%

[Flying Dog]

11.26.03

Bush's re-election chances: 70%

Bush v. each Dem major candidate:

John Kerry: 60%
Howard dean: 75%
John Edwards: 50%
Wesley clark: 55%
Joe Lieberman: 55%

Gephardt is also a major candidate.

[DarthKosh]

11.26.03

Bush's re-election chances: 70%

Bush v. each Dem major candidate:

John Kerry: 60%
Howard dean: 75%
John Edwards: 50%
Wesley clark: 55%
Joe Lieberman: 55%

I say 85% chance of Bush beating Dean.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Dec 2, 2003

11 Months until election day, and I'll boost Bush's chances at reelection to 75% from 65%.

Barring a major geopolitical event (25% chance) or scandal (<1% chance), Bush is a shoe-in for reelection.

The economy in 2004 has an excellent chance of having the highest GDP growth since 1984 and will add at least 2.5M new jobs.

If Dean wins Iowa and NH, which I expect, then Bush's reelection chances should look like this:
Feb 2004 - 90%
March 2004 - 91%
April 2004 - 92%
May 2004 - 93%
June 2004 - 94%
July 2004 - 95%
Aug 2004 - 96%
Sept 2004 - 97%
Oct 2004 - 98%
Nov 2, 2004 - 99%

Barring a major geopolitical event or scandal, Dean has <1% chance of beating Bush in 2004.

I'll also place the GOP's chance of gaining a super-majority in the Senate at 5%.  If an opening in the SCOTUS becomes available with Bush nominating a Hispanic, then I'll boost the GOP chances to 25%.  If the Dems filibuster a Hispanic SCOTUS nominee, then I'll boost the GOP super-majority chances to 50%.

[Nym90]

By a super-majority I assume you mean 60 seats...I highly doubt that the GOP could pick up 9 seats under any circumstances. They'd have to win every race that is even remotely competitive...even in the most optimistic scenario for the GOP, in which they sweep all 4 southern Democratic open seats and hold Oklahoma, Alaska, and Illinois, what would be the other 5 seats they would pick up? Even if Breaux retires and the GOP picks up that seat, you still need to come up with 4 more pickups. I don't see that many vulnerable Dem incumbents to make that possible, in addition to the fact that the GOP isn't likely to hold every one of their own seats.
I realize you and I disagree strongly about the impact of a Hispanic nominee, but I just can't bring myself to believe that Hispanics will vote en masse for Bush simply because he nominates a Hispanic. Hispanics don't vote on race alone, as don't whites, or blacks, or american indians, or asians, or arabs. Hispanics, like everyone else, will actually look at the positions on the issues of the nominee in question.
Even if your hypothesis is true and this causes Bush to sweep the Hispanic vote, there aren't that many competitive Democratic seats in states that have a large Hispanic vote that I can see.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

nym,

thanks for the reply.  

I think Hispanics would be up in arms (with maybe even some riots taking place) if the Dems filibuster a Hispanic SCOTUS nominee.  80% of Hispanics supported Estrada this last time around.  Also, the issues of gay marriage and partial birth abortion are unpopular among Hispanics.

CA & NY Senate seats could be won by the GOP if the Hispanics vote 60% for the GOP; also Daschle could be dumpted in SD when it is clear the Dems can't win the Senate.

[Ryan]

I'm going to reluctantly agree that there is no better than a five % chance of attaining a super-majority for the GOP.

I disagree with Nym that there arnt even enough (given the right candidate and national trend) competitive seats. To all those already mentioned you can add Nevada, Wisconsin, North Dakota etc

Its just that winning 80- 90% of such seats is such a statistically unlikely event that I dont believe it will occur.

Btw unless Ur discussing the relation between the Presidential elec and the senate elec, U may wanna post this in the Senate 2004 thread

[Nym90]

You are right, there are enough potentially competitive seats for it to happen, but you are correct that the chances of the GOP sweeping all of the toss up and even marginally competitive races is highly unlikely. There would have to be a huge wave in favor of the GOP, at least as large as there was in 1994 (even then Republicans picked up only 8 Senate seats).
I highly doubt that nominating a very conservative Hispanic to the SCOTUS would create a GOP tsunami nationwide. Even if it did help Bush among Hispanics it is not going to be that big of an issue for most voters.

[jravnsbo]

How anyone could not have supported Estrada is beyond me.  Ok I'll say you can make an argument, an ideological one for the rest of the nominees, but the leaked memos that Kennedy and Durbin sent about we have to stop this guy because "He's a Latino" is outrageous.

Estrada argued over 15 cases before the US SCT and worked for the DOJ.  WOW right there.  Then Dems tried to say the cases he argued were out of the mainstream, but he WON most of them.  who is out of the mainstream?

Next John Roberts was confirmed to the DC CT of App.  He also argued cases before SCT and worked at DOJ with Estrada.

Roberts was never asked for sensitive work product memos and papers that NO ATTORNEY has to give up, but Estrada was and that is what the Dems hung their hat on.

Also 4 Democrat US Attorney Generals , DEMOCRATS! came out and sai that to give up or even to ask for these papers was outrageous!

But Roberts was a white male and so not a problem, but darn Estrada was a Shhhh LAtino.

Outrageous!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Roberts was never asked for sensitive work product memos and papers that NO ATTORNEY has to give up, but Estrada was and that is what the Dems hung their hat on.  Also 4 Democrat US Attorney Generals , DEMOCRATS! came out and sai that to give up or even to ask for these papers was outrageous!

The only time these papers have been looked through is in the case the government is investigating itself for criminal activity.....they treated Estrada like a criminal!  That alone justifies Estrada playing the race card - he is being treated differently because he is a GOP Hispanic nominee.

That's why, if I were Bush, I would nominate Estrada for the SCOTUS if a spot becomes available in the Spring of 2004.  

[jravnsbo]

It will be Estrada or Gonzalez, current WH Counsel if a spot opens up.

Both very much qualified (even ask the ABA which USED TO BE The standard for dems) and shhh "LAtinos"

[Beet]

I think you can determine whether or not Estrada is in the "mainstream" by comparing his stances on the issues with what the majority of Americans want.

[jravnsbo]

I agree "Beet" like I said before he was arguing and winning the vast majority of the cases he won at the SCOTUS, which last time i checked interpretted the law.  So hard to call him out of the mainstream when he wins cases, where any lawyer hopes to argue just one case in his life, at the highest level over and over again.

[© tweed]

December 14, 2003

With the capture of Saddam Hussein in Tikrit, I will raise Bush's re-election chances from 70% to 80%.  This might take foreign policy off oif the table, leaving only.....cuts in overtime pay?  MEdicare?  Not much left for my party in 2004.

[jravnsbo]

Madea list of legislation , domestic and foriegn policy a while back as to what would be looked at for Bush's relelection.

So far Unemployment has went from 6.2% to 5.9%.  The Prescript Drugs bill passed.  The PBA Bill passed.

Energy Bill looks like it will pass next year, witha  few adjustment, but ethanol will stay in.


Then I put down Sadaam and OBL capture.  Well "WE GOT EM" Saddam that is!  A huge PLUS For thee President and the troops!  Odds just got better for Bush as they have been over the past few months.

[jaichind]

Before Saddam's capture I figured Bush's chances as 66%.  Now it is more like 80%.

[jravnsbo]

Yep Bush's odds just went UP!

44/55 on Iraqi most wanted list gotten!  all winners in that!

[DarthKosh]

Yep Bush's odds just went UP!

44/55 on Iraqi most wanted list gotten!  all winners in that!

I think Bushes reelection chances are around 70% now.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

December 14, 2003

With the capture of Saddam Hussein in Tikrit, I will raise Bush's re-election chances from 70% to 80%.  This might take foreign policy off oif the table, leaving only.....cuts in overtime pay?  MEdicare?  Not much left for my party in 2004.

I agree that Saddam's capture raises Bush's re-election chances. However, I disagree that it leaves little for our party to use against President Bush. Three things we could use: Where are our Surpluses? Where are the 13 Million jobs that the Clinton Administration created? Oh, and what happened to the Education President? There have been cuts there too. I predict a Democratic Sweep in the State Houses and in the Congress. Even if Bush gets re-elected, he'll have to deal with a Democratic Majority in Both Houses of Congress.

[DarthKosh]

December 14, 2003

With the capture of Saddam Hussein in Tikrit, I will raise Bush's re-election chances from 70% to 80%.  This might take foreign policy off oif the table, leaving only.....cuts in overtime pay?  MEdicare?  Not much left for my party in 2004.

I agree that Saddam's capture raises Bush's re-election chances. However, I disagree that it leaves little for our party to use against President Bush. Three things we could use: Where are our Surpluses? Where are the 13 Million jobs that the Clinton Administration created? Oh, and what happened to the Education President? There have been cuts there too. I predict a Democratic Sweep in the State Houses and in the Congress. Even if Bush gets re-elected, he'll have to deal with a Democratic Majority in Both Houses of Congress.

Wishfull thinking on a day when the President scored a major victory.

[12th Doctor]

Pending some major earth shattering event, I have to say that it's all over for the Dems in '04.  Expect primary challenges to start dropping out of the race, really soon.  And not the far lefts ones like Kucinich and Dean and Sharpton, but guys like Kerry, Edwards and Liebermann.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I predict a Democratic Sweep in the State Houses and in the Congress. Even if Bush gets re-elected, he'll have to deal with a Democratic Majority in Both Houses of Congress.

And I predict you'll be looking for a spider-hole to craw into on Nov 3 2004.

The liberal’s hatred of both truth and morality will not win in Nov 2004.