Election Odds

[angus]

Massachusettsism

geez, and they accuse bush of coining phrases.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

4/8/04

I'd put Bush's chances at 70%, the strength of the economy will be unquestioned come Nov.

[angus]

Bush 57.1%
Kerry 42.6%
other 0.3%

see also www.campaignline.com

[© tweed]

4/8/04

I'd put Bush's chances at 70%, the strength of the economy will be unquestioned come Nov.

I'm Mr. Pessimist, and I don't think it's that high.

[© tweed]

Bush 57.1%
Kerry 42.6%
other 0.3%

see also www.campaignline.com

those numbers look about right.

[Beet]

Bush 57.1%
Kerry 42.6%
other 0.3%

see also www.campaignline.com

those numbers look about right.

I second that...

[agcatter]

Those odds look about right give or take a point or two.

[Rococo4]

I would say Bush is a slight favorite, but things really depend on how things go in Iraq.  The new Census reappointment of EVs may make the critical difference in the end.  It does look like the business cycle might be benefiting the Republicans for once this election

Bush 52.6% chance, Kerry 47.4% chance

[Blerpiez]

Bush 52.6% chance, Kerry 47.4% chance

I agree.  The election is so far away that it is impossible to forecast what can and will happen.  This is like predicting the winner of the 2006 Super Bowl now.  You give a slight edge to bush because he's doing better now, but that can change either way.

[© tweed]

Bush 52.6% chance, Kerry 47.4% chance

You have to allow at least .1% for 'other'.

[Rococo4]

Bush 52.6% chance, Kerry 47.4% chance

You have to allow at least .1% for 'other'.

No I dont......these are my odds right now and i dont think anyone except these 2 will win.  i am not a professional pollster or oddsmaker.  i dont think there is .1% chance Nader or someone else wil win

[© tweed]

Bush 52.6% chance, Kerry 47.4% chance

You have to allow at least .1% for 'other'.

No I dont......these are my odds right now and i dont think anyone except these 2 will win.  i am not a professional pollster or oddsmaker.  i dont think there is .1% chance Nader or someone else wil win

What is Kerry gets shot and Gore becomes the nominee?  You have to account for things like that.

[Rococo4]

Bush 52.6% chance, Kerry 47.4% chance

You have to allow at least .1% for 'other'.

No I dont......these are my odds right now and i dont think anyone except these 2 will win.  i am not a professional pollster or oddsmaker.  i dont think there is .1% chance Nader or someone else wil win

What is Kerry gets shot and Gore becomes the nominee?  You have to account for things like that.

Fine.....though my odds were just based on those two

Revised Odds
Bush 52.6% chance of being reelected
Kerry 47.3% chance of winning
Other .1% chance

[© tweed]

Kerry 52.5%
Bush 47.0%
Other 0.5% (assasination, scandal, illness, whatever)

You flip your prediction around hourly, it seems.

[Lunar]

Vorlon, isn't your prediction based on what's going to happen in November, not if it was held today?  You seem to change it based on whether the latest poll shows a candidate +1 or +3 ahead.  It seems like predicting on such a long term would smooth out your prediction to the monthly basis or something.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, isn't your prediction based on what's going to happen in November, not if it was held today?  You seem to change it based on whether the latest poll shows a candidate +1 or +3 ahead.  It seems like predicting on such a long term would smooth out your prediction to the monthly basis or something.

My map is "If the election was held today..."

[Lunar]

It is?  I find it more fun to predict November.

Edit:  Ah, I see you have Kerry picking up Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as opposed to early today

[The Vorlon]

It is?  I find it more fun to predict November.

Edit:  Ah, I see you have Kerry picking up Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as opposed to early today

New batch of state polls came in

[elcorazon]

what happen to your sig, vorlon?  I can't find your prediction anymore. The search of predictions isn't working either.  sigh.

[angus]

Campaignline.com downgrades Bush.  ouch.

George W. Bush (R) favored over John F. Kerry (D), 9 to 8 (52.9% chance; downgraded April 14 from 54.5% chance)

[© tweed]

05.22.04

Bush re-election chances dropped from 55% to 50%.

[© tweed]

From americasline.com:

ODDS TO BE ELECTED
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2004

George W. Bush- (R)- President- 4/5
John Kerry- (D) Massachusetts Senator- Even
Ralph Nader- (I) Consumer advocate- 5000/1

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

05/27/04

I'd put Bush's election chances at 60%.  The huge spike in gas prices is trumping (in the mind of the average voter) the sharp upturn in employment.

Inflation will get you thrown out of office faster than unemployment.  Unemployment only affects those who are unemployed, but inflation makes everyone mad.

If oil remains above $35 from now until election, Bush could very well be toast.

Bush should lift the dozens of different mixture requirements throughout the US in order to be able to buy more gas from Europe.  Doing that would shave AT LEAST 20 cents off the price of gas within a week, even if the price of oil remains the same...but, of course, the price of oil would drop also thus shaving off much more than 20 cents a gallon.

He should also sell 100 million barrels of oil out of the national reserve, spread out over the 3 summer months.

If he did both, it would drop the price of oil from $40 to under $25 within a very short period of time....and just in time for summer vacations.

He should also try to do something to increase refinery capacity within the US.

[Reds4]

As a huge GWB supporter I put his odds for re-election at about 40% right now. I don't think he will lose by a lot, but things look better for Kerry than Bush. Man I hope I'm wrong!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I think Bush is currently (5/28/04) five percentage points from victory.  He needs to be polling around 48-49 percent in the current polls, but he is only polling 43-44 percent.

Look at the economic news out today: Chicago PMI (manufacturing) is booming at a 16 year high with strong job growth, personal income increase by .6% of a percent last month- the best in over three years.  Yet consumer confidence is dropping and Bush's approval rating on handling the economy continues to drop.

Why?  Answer: GAS PRICES.  Not only are consumers being gouged at the pump, but each time they drive past a gas station (probably 10 times a day), they're remined that they are being gouged.

The anger over high fuel prices has trumped any credit Bush would have gotten for the rebound in employment.  And instead of just the unemployed being angry, everyone is angry over gas prices.

Barring the capture of bin Laden, the election is not winnable for Bush if gas prices stay around $2 throughout the summer.