Walker's still Walker, he wouldn't have done all that better than in real life.
Cruz would've won Iowa with Romney second, Romney would've won New Hampshire.
I think Cruz, Christie, Jeb!, and maybe Carson would've done better, while Rubio probably would've been more crowded out by Romney than he was by Trump.
I suspect Cruz would've won, since his "very conservative" base would've been able to expand into the purely anti-establishment Trump crowd much better than it has now, while Jeb! wouldn't have been Trump'd as he was in real life, and Christie would've had more of a path as the loud moderate yankee. Thus, Romney, Christie, and Jeb! would've split the establishment vote three ways, and Cruz would've been too far ahead after Super Tuesday to stop.
Pre-IA - Let's say all the people who dropped out before Iowa in real life drop out here, too.
IA - Cruz > Romney > Jeb! (Huckabee and Santorum drop out)
NH - Romney > Christie > Cruz (Fiorina, Paul, and Rubio drop out)
SC - Cruz > Romney > Jeb! (Carson drops out, endorses Cruz)
NV - Cruz > Romney > Jeb! (Christie drops out, endorses Romney)
ST - Cruz wins most states, Romney wins a couple, Jeb! gets a state to keep him in until Florida.
At that point Cruz wins most of the states due to vote-splitting by Romney and Jeb!, including on March 15th, where Jeb! loses Florida and finally drops out, endorsing Romney. At that point, Romney goes on to win Utah, and win several states in the Northeast, but it's not enough and Cruz gets to 1237 in May.
Not sure about the Democrats with Biden. I presume he would've taken some of the establishment support from Clinton, but also some of the anti-Clinton support/momentum from Sanders. Not sure which one would've been stronger, or if he would've won the nomination. I suspect it would've turned into a 2-way race by this point, although I could see all 3 of them staying in and having a contested convention, perhaps leading to something like a Biden-Sanders ticket (just what the Republicans are fearing--two old white guys!
).
