No way Romney would have won the nomination. I think part of the reason he didn't run again was because he wasn't polling that well.
The anti-establishment energy would have been squarely behind one of the right-wing Republican candidates (an actual right-winger like Walker, Cruz or Rubio). I say one of them would have been the man to beat. Rand Paul may have done a little better. Jeb! still would have floundered. Kasich would unfortunately still be doing well since I don't think Trump cost Rick Perry that last podium at the first Fox News debate in Cleveland. Rubio may never have made the gaffe that cost him his campaign. Christie may have been able to yell his way into first place but would have had a hard time staying there when the spotlight would fall on his record in New Jersey.
The person who would have done the best relative to how he actually did is Scott Walker. Without Trump, he probably wouldn't have lost his lead in Iowa unless it was taken away by Ted Cruz, and Walker may have matched Cruz's intensity there. Remember, Walker was leading by around 9 points in the state until the fascist came along.
Unlike Trump and Cruz, I could see Walker being someone that Kasich may have respected enough to drop out and endorse.
I say Walker would have won Iowa solidly, a divided establishment vote would quite possibly have handed him New Hampshire as well, and if that were to happen, the nomination would likely be his.
I agree with this analysis 100%. Even if Walker weren't able to win New Hampshire in this scenario, he very likely would have won both IA and SC. Given that he has somewhat broad appeal to the major wings of the GOP, two wins in the first three states would have put him in commanding position.
