2016: The War of the Five POTUS
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  2016: The War of the Five POTUS
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Author Topic: 2016: The War of the Five POTUS  (Read 1094 times)
AltWorlder
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« on: February 22, 2016, 06:32:36 PM »
« edited: February 22, 2016, 06:40:37 PM by AltWorlder »

Trump wins majority delegates at the RNC in July 21, but the Republican establishment freaks out and keeps the nomination from him via brokered convention, and Rubio becomes the anointed candidate. Embittered and still uber-popular, Trump reverses his pledge to Norquist, runs as an independent under the Make America Great Again Party.

A week later, the Democratic nominee is Hillary, who prevails in a very close primary fight and is widely perceived to have been selected via brokered convention (despite the rumor being most likely untrue). She wins the nomination, loses the mandate. Revolt risk in the Democratic party is at record heights. RNC is already over for a week and Trump has already announced his third-party candidacy. Anti-Hillary groups, furious at the party establishment but perceiving progressive victory to be inevitable since the right-wing is divided, switch to an unprecedentedly massive write-in campaign for Sanders. Despite only capturing the attention, much less support of a minority of formerly pro-Bernie voters, disgruntlement at the party machinery and discomfort at voting for Hillary causes uncertainty in many Democrats, especially with the youth. Sanders himself rejects any sort of third party run, but his movement has marched onwards without him, intent on drafting him via write-in; direct democracy by sidestepping the party nomination process entirely. He also does not endorse or support Hillary, despite officially conceding to her at the convention.

Bloomberg jumps in as centrist unity figure. Soft five-way race. Clinton (D) vs. Rubio (R) vs. Trump (M) vs. Sanders (D/S- write-in only) vs. Bloomberg (U)

Who would the likely running mates be, and how would this play out?

Feel free to swap Rubio for some other establishment figure as well, if the RNC feels that he can't beat Hillary. Maybe Romney?
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Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
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« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2016, 06:58:40 PM »



Former SoS Hillary Clinton/Gov. Mark Dayton: 291 Electoral Votes 34.2%
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney/Gov. Scott Walker: 132 Electoral Votes 24.5%
CEO Donald Trump/Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin: 107 Electoral Votes 31.4%
Sen. Bernie Sanders/Rep. Keith Ellison: 8 Electoral Vote 4.2%
Fmr Mayor Michael Bloomberg/Fmr. Gov. Jon Huntsman: 0 Electoral Votes 5.2%
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2016, 07:06:14 PM »


182: Rubio/Ernst
182: Clinton/Bayh
83: Bloomberg/Huntsman
48: Trump/Jindal
43: Sanders/Schweitzer
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cxs018
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« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2016, 08:05:22 PM »



Former SoS Hillary Clinton/Gov. Mark Dayton: 291 Electoral Votes 34.2%
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney/Gov. Scott Walker: 132 Electoral Votes 24.5%
CEO Donald Trump/Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin: 107 Electoral Votes 31.4%
Sen. Bernie Sanders/Rep. Keith Ellison: 8 Electoral Vote 4.2%
Fmr Mayor Michael Bloomberg/Fmr. Gov. Jon Huntsman: 0 Electoral Votes 5.2%

How does Sanders win ME overall while losing both congressional districts?

Anyways, as for running mates, I feel like this would be what happens:

Sec. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) (An attempt at taking Sanders voters)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) (A similar attempt at taking TRUMP voters)
Mr. Donald J. Trump (I-NY)/Sen. Scott Brown (I-NH) (Balances out the ticket in many ways)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Sen. Jim Webb (I-VA) (Balances out the ticket, and doesn't require persuading a Democrat to go independent)
Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY)/Gov. Jon Huntsman (I-UT) (A ticket balancer)

I think that it's clear that this election would go to the house, or at the very least, the three independents would be major spoilers.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2016, 03:29:03 PM »

How does Sanders win ME overall while losing both congressional districts?

It's possible. Say CD1 splits A-34% B-36% C-30% and CD-2 splits A-34% B-30% C-36%. Candidate A would carry the state overall, 34%-33%-33%, while winning neither CD.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2016, 03:42:40 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2016, 03:44:14 PM by mathstatman »

Sec. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) (An attempt at taking Sanders voters)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) (A similar attempt at taking TRUMP voters)
Mr. Donald J. Trump (I-NY)/Sen. Scott Brown (I-NH) (Balances out the ticket in many ways)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Sen. Jim Webb (I-VA) (Balances out the ticket, and doesn't require persuading a Democrat to go independent)
Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I-NY)/Gov. Jon Huntsman (I-UT) (A ticket balancer)

I think that it's clear that this election would go to the house, or at the very least, the three independents would be major spoilers.



Clinton 47% / 300 EV
Rubio 43% / 229 EV
Trump 5% / 6 EV
Sanders 3% / 3 EV
Bloomberg 2%

I think people forget how wedded most voters, not merely members of the public (who often don't vote) are to the major parties. I suspect many nonpartisan voters would be too confused to vote, given Trump's perceived negatives.
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