Why Trump could legitamately do well with African-American voters.

[Redban]

I think that Trump would get around 12% of the black vote. You guys have to remember that Bush got 11% of the black vote against Kerry, and Trump is a much better fit for black voters because of the reasons I listed.

Bush got 11% before the surge of new African-American voters following Obama's candidacy (see the rise in black turnout from 2004 to 2008, 2012). The blacks who gave Bush 11% are probably still voting GOP; the difference is that they're now being drowned by other blacks who just entered the electorate.

[Gustaf]

I think that Trump would get around 12% of the black vote. You guys have to remember that Bush got 11% of the black vote against Kerry, and Trump is a much better fit for black voters because of the reasons I listed.

Bush got 11% before the surge of new African-American voters following Obama's candidacy (see the rise in black turnout from 2004 to 2008, 2012). The blacks who gave Bush 11% are probably still voting GOP; the difference is that they're now being drowned by other blacks who just entered the electorate.

Yup. I also think that the Obama presidency and the debate around it has hurt the GOP among black voters.

Plus the fact that Trump is a bad fit for minority voters in general.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

He'll get 5%, if he is lucky.

[Gass3268]

Voted 10% back in February, I would now like to revise that prediction to 3%.

[PresidentTRUMP]

I predict a huge decrease in the African-American turnout this election and Trump getting around 10% of the vote with a chance at close to 15%.

[Boston Bread]

Voted 10% back in February, I would now like to revise that prediction to 3%.

Same. Can't believe I voted 10%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JesseFFerguson/status/770435563258310656

[Slow Learner]

I predict a huge decrease in the African-American turnout this election and Trump getting around 10% of the vote with a chance at close to 15%.

Cool beans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This thread needs to be deleted.

No, what's the point of old bad predictions if we can't bump them to laugh at them?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump's tweets did work?
His rating among blacks went up from 4/91 to 12/84.

From recent ABC poll. Favorability ratings. Probably because of small sample, but still.

[ag]

Trump's tweets did work?
His rating among blacks went up from 4/91 to 12/84.

From recent ABC poll. Favorability ratings. Probably because of small sample, but still.

I see our mother-killing little swede is very excited about minor movements in one single poll. Really it is all about getting you closer to getting rid of the old hag, isn't it?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump's tweets did work?
His rating among blacks went up from 4/91 to 12/84.

From recent ABC poll. Favorability ratings. Probably because of small sample, but still.

I see our mother-killing little swede is very excited about minor movements in one single poll. Really it is all about getting you closer to getting rid of the old hag, isn't it?

One signle poll? Have you missed... last two weeks?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump's tweets did work?
His rating among blacks went up from 4/91 to 12/84.

From recent ABC poll. Favorability ratings. Probably because of small sample, but still.

I see our mother-killing little swede is very excited about minor movements in one single poll. Really it is all about getting you closer to getting rid of the old hag, isn't it?

One signle poll? Have you missed... last two weeks?

They all have showed great Trump popularity among the Blacks? BTW, when you rape your father, does he usually oink?

The Wall just got ten feet higher

[ag]

Trump's tweets did work?
His rating among blacks went up from 4/91 to 12/84.

From recent ABC poll. Favorability ratings. Probably because of small sample, but still.

I see our mother-killing little swede is very excited about minor movements in one single poll. Really it is all about getting you closer to getting rid of the old hag, isn't it?

One signle poll? Have you missed... last two weeks?

They all have showed great Trump popularity among the Blacks? BTW, when you rape your father, does he usually oink?

The Wall just got ten feet higher

So, I guess, he does. Comforting to know.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This thread was so accurate. Trump's outreach campaign is wonderful!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/772576650718482432

[Bojack Horseman]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

4. Hillary is running. You guys have to remember that Hillary invented birther-ism. As you all know, she ran a very racist campaign against Obama, and Trump could use this to his advantage.

Which is why black people are doing everything they can to stop her from winning the primary.

Sanders hasn't attacked Hillary over her 2008 campaign. Trump probably will.

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/16/12938066/donald-trump-obama-birth-certificate-birther

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I predict a huge decrease in the African-American turnout this election and Trump getting around 10% of the vote with a chance at close to 15%.

I need to also remind myself to bump and quote this after election.

[Mr. Morden]

What are the betting odds on Trump finishing 3rd (or worse) among blacks, behind either Johnson or Stein?  Some of the polls suggest it's not impossible.

[hopper]

Yeah I guessed a few months ago that Trump would receive 8% of the Black Vote but I want to revise that down to 4% of the Black Vote now.

[hopper]

I think that Trump would get around 12% of the black vote. You guys have to remember that Bush got 11% of the black vote against Kerry, and Trump is a much better fit for black voters because of the reasons I listed.

Bush got 11% before the surge of new African-American voters following Obama's candidacy (see the rise in black turnout from 2004 to 2008, 2012). The blacks who gave Bush 11% are probably still voting GOP; the difference is that they're now being drowned by other blacks who just entered the electorate.

No there was an increase in Baby Boomer Black Women voting(the 45-64 year old age range) in 2012.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/791612864989507588

[Dr. Arch]

I regret ever voting 8% on this.

[Mr. Morden]

The new Yougov national poll has Trump at 1% support (and tied for 3rd place) among blacks:

Clinton 86%
Stein 2%
Johnson 1%
Trump 1%

[Ebsy]

I think the evidence is overwhelming that Trump is going to do as badly as McCain did among African American voters.