Why Trump could legitamately do well with African-American voters.

[MIKESOWELL]

I voted 7 percent, but I think he gets 9 percent maximum.

[they don't love you like i love you]

So Trump is going to attack Hillary for "starting Birtherism" even though he dabbled in it up until this campaign? And blacks will believe him with Obama campaigning for Hillary?

If Hillary starts in on Trump, he'll simply start waving the Politico article that indicates that the whole thing originated somewhere with the Democrats, so good luck with making that an issue...

Why does that matter? Hillary never demanded to see Obama's birth certificate and Trump did.

This reminds me of the "Obama can't campaign against the Iraq War because there were some other Democrats that supported the Iraq War" talking point.

[President Johnson]

Voted 12%. I think he can get 10-15% of the black vote.

[SillyAmerican]

So Trump is going to attack Hillary for "starting Birtherism" even though he dabbled in it up until this campaign? And blacks will believe him with Obama campaigning for Hillary?

If Hillary starts in on Trump, he'll simply start waving the Politico article that indicates that the whole thing originated somewhere with the Democrats, so good luck with making that an issue...

Why does that matter? Hillary never demanded to see Obama's birth certificate and Trump did.

This reminds me of the "Obama can't campaign against the Iraq War because there were some other Democrats that supported the Iraq War" talking point.

Well, I'm not saying that Hillary can't/shouldn't point out that Trump asked for Obama's birth certificate, 'cuz clearly he did. All I'm saying is that Mr. Trump will probably be quick to point out that the controversy over where Obama was born did not originate with him (or with any other Republican, for that matter). No, this craziness had its origins with someone in the Democratic party. And given that it was around the time that Clinton supporters were feeling a little upset that a certain African American running for president was giving their lady a bit of an electoral spanking, perhaps one can find fingerprints at the scene. But as you say, what does it matter? Hillary could not have known anything about it, and the only reasonable explanation is the vast right-wing conspiracy! Occam, eat your heart out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Black, with obstruction of Scalia seat, will ensure Trump doesnt win

[Camaro33]

I think it is possible that he breaks 20%. I am certain he beats 10% minimum. Here is why:

1.) Trump has the fame and name recognition and many people who are agnostic to politics that actually show up to vote will probably vote for him. This is unlike Romney/Bush.

2.) Obama is not running. This puts the Republican back to 9-11%.

3.) I truly do not think that African American men will vote enthusiastically for a white woman especially Hillary Clinton. I can see many African American men breaking for Trump.

[P123]

Trump will do very well among the Blacks (20-25% imo, but will do far worse with Hispanics). Trump is obviously the best Republican to get AA votes.

Reasons why.

1.Alot of African Americans are against illegal immigration, and have suffered  do to mass immigration. Their are alot of anti-illegal immigration blacks.
2.Trumps style appeals to alot of Blacks, including ones I know (should be pretty obvious).
3.African Americans are the most protectionist group, which will help Trump.

[MK]

Trump will do very well among the Blacks (20-25% imo, but will do far worse with Hispanics). Trump is obviously the best Republican to get AA votes.

Reasons why.

1.Alot of African Americans are against illegal immigration, and have suffered  do to mass immigration. Their are alot of anti-illegal immigration blacks.
2.Trumps style appeals to alot of Blacks, including ones I know (should be pretty obvious).
3.African Americans are the most protectionist group, which will help Trump.

None of that matters.   

Still Clinton will get 90% of that vote.   

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Voted 12%. I think he can get 10-15% of the black vote.

I voted 13% and I also see the 10-15% range as TRUMP's probable range, not because he'll get considerably more AA voters than Bush did but because Black Democrats won't feel as much of an urge to vote without Obama on the ticket. Fortunately for the Democrats, I also think that most of that drop off in BD participation will be in non-battleground states.

[Gustaf]

I really don't get this idea. Is there any solid proof that black voters care enough about illegal immigration to switch parties?

I do think there will be a drop in black Democratic turnout without Obama on the ballot bringing Republican numbers back to normal but I see little reason why it would go above that.

[afleitch]

I really don't get this idea. Is there any solid proof that black voters care enough about illegal immigration to switch parties?

I do think there will be a drop in black Democratic turnout without Obama on the ballot bringing Republican numbers back to normal but I see little reason why it would go above that.

And 'back to normal' = still shockingly low.

[Gustaf]

So, I decided to go beyond all this excellent #analysis and look at some actual data.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/184547/clinton-favorability-strong-among-black-americans.aspx

Turns out Clinton is super popular in the AA community with an 80-12 approval rate while Trump is super unpopular with an approval rate of 20-68. And before someone says that's good for a Republican it was actually the largest negative margin of all Repbulican candidates and the absolute approval was similar to that of Bush, Christie, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum.

Here is another poll from last year: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/09/trump_viewed_negatively_by_6_in_10_us_adults_in_po.html

It has his approval rate as bad among blacks as among Hispanics, 81-15.

For comparison, George W Bush had a 32% approval rate among black voters in 2003. http://www.gallup.com/poll/8749/blacks-give-bush-low-marks-hispanics-more-positive.aspx

Now, can we please for the love of fcking god dispel with this fiction that black voters don't know what they're doing? They know exactly what they're doing.

[they don't love you like i love you]

LOL

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I think Trump will do about as well as W did against Kerry.

There are a number of blacks who view Hispanic immigrants as competition for jobs and are not turned off by Trump's immigration stances.  More than some folks think. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Slightly better than Romney (since Obama is not on the ballot), but won't crack double digits.

About here. Clinton will hold AA women, but Trump will pick up a few AA men.

[RR1997]

LOL

Why did you bump this thread?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I was reminded of it by some f[inks]ing trash analysis I read on PredictIt.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here's what Trump should do if he wants to do relatively well with blacks. Hit Hillary hard on NAFTA and other trade agreements that cost American jobs. Hit her hard on H-1Bs, which result in qualified Americans being passed over. 6% of CS and engineering graduates are blacks, but only 1% of Google, Facebook, Microsoft, or Twitter employees are. Companies would rather hire a foreigner than a black. Hillary promotes systematic racism with her H-1B support. Also attack her on welfare reform. Also, he could attack her for her support of the racist death penalty, but that's probably too far to the left for a Republican to make that argument.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Slightly better than Romney (since Obama is not on the ballot), but won't crack double digits.

About here. Clinton will hold AA women, but Trump will pick up a few AA men.

Especially the one's who like being called "My African-American".

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Slightly better than Romney (since Obama is not on the ballot), but won't crack double digits.

About here. Clinton will hold AA women, but Trump will pick up a few AA men.

Especially the one's who like being called "My African-American".

I think at the very least they'd rather have that pluralized.

[ProudModerate2]

So Trump is going to attack Hillary for "starting Birtherism" even though he dabbled in it up until this campaign? And blacks will believe him with Obama campaigning for Hillary?

If Hillary starts in on Trump, he'll simply start waving the Politico article that indicates that the whole thing originated somewhere with the Democrats, so good luck with making that an issue...

4. Hillary is running. You guys have to remember that Hillary invented birther-ism. As you all know, she ran a very racist campaign against Obama, and Trump could use this to his advantage.

You guys have to remember that Hillary invented birther-ism

No she didn't, there was never any proof that she was responsible for that

It may not have been Hillary, but I think it's fairly clear that it originated within the ranks of the Democrats.

In a Politico article dated April 22, 2011 with the headline "Birtherism: Where it all began"  (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/53563.html), we read the following:

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Obama himself will never allow Donald Trump of all people to deflect from birtherism. Clinton doesn't even have to mention a single word about it.

Exactly, I agree. Hillary does not have to say a word about the birtherism issue.
Obama can do all the talking here, as he should, since it was he (Obama) who was attacked.

[ProudModerate2]

So Trump is going to attack Hillary for "starting Birtherism" even though he dabbled in it up until this campaign? And blacks will believe him with Obama campaigning for Hillary?

If Hillary starts in on Trump, he'll simply start waving the Politico article that indicates that the whole thing originated somewhere with the Democrats, so good luck with making that an issue...

The fact of the matter is, no one is going to care about some 'Politico article."
What people remember is that trump made the biggest "thing" about it, since the invention of sliced bread.
And besides, just because someone else started the rumor, doesn't excuse trump for believing in something so stupid (Obama birtherism), and then shouting like a crazy idiot in the streets that the sky is falling !
Do you understand ?  ..... trump looked like a total clown when he did this.

[Santander]

The fact of the matter is, no one is going to care about some 'Politico article."
What people remember is that trump made the biggest "thing" about it, since the invention of sliced bread.
And besides, just because someone else started the rumor, doesn't excuse trump for believing in something so stupid (Obama birtherism), and then shouting like a crazy idiot in the streets that the sky is falling !
Do you understand ?  ..... trump looked like a total clown when he did this.

It does matter when the person who sowed the racist seeds of doubt in the first place is the person he is literally running against. It matters that it's out of Politico because like Hillary's emails, it's not some right-wing smear out of Drudge or Breitbart, it's out of the liberal media. Trump isn't going to willingly go there, as he has nothing to gain, but Clinton damn well knows that if she goes there, he will hit her back. Clinton's hit him on just about everything already, and if she thought going there would be a net benefit for her, she would have.

[Xing]

I don't know what's more pathetic about this thread, the fact that 15 people apparently think Trump will get more than TWENTY PERCENT of black voters (WTF), or someone (who isn't a Trump supporter) claiming that Trump is smarter than Sanders.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Sure. I can see the argument for 10 percent.

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That will hurt him in every other segment and black people just don't trust him.

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Will hurt him among republicans and won't gain him a single point of black support.

What blacks are hearing is that Trump is racist.