Why Trump could legitamately do well with African-American voters.

[Gustaf]

I really don't get this idea. Is there any solid proof that black voters care enough about illegal immigration to switch parties?

I do think there will be a drop in black Democratic turnout without Obama on the ballot bringing Republican numbers back to normal but I see little reason why it would go above that.

[Gustaf]

So, I decided to go beyond all this excellent #analysis and look at some actual data.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/184547/clinton-favorability-strong-among-black-americans.aspx

Turns out Clinton is super popular in the AA community with an 80-12 approval rate while Trump is super unpopular with an approval rate of 20-68. And before someone says that's good for a Republican it was actually the largest negative margin of all Repbulican candidates and the absolute approval was similar to that of Bush, Christie, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum.

Here is another poll from last year: http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/09/trump_viewed_negatively_by_6_in_10_us_adults_in_po.html

It has his approval rate as bad among blacks as among Hispanics, 81-15.

For comparison, George W Bush had a 32% approval rate among black voters in 2003. http://www.gallup.com/poll/8749/blacks-give-bush-low-marks-hispanics-more-positive.aspx

Now, can we please for the love of fcking god dispel with this fiction that black voters don't know what they're doing? They know exactly what they're doing.

[Gustaf]

Again, Republicans generally do very poorly with black voters. This election pits a Democrat who is above-average popular among black voters (Clinton) against a Republican who is unusually unpopular among black voters.

Of course, there isn't much room to fall for a Republican in that electorate but yeah there is no reason to think Trump will do well. The absence of Obama on the ticket might help him a little compared to Romney though.

[Gustaf]

This discussion is pretty telling of Trump supporter mentality. There is plenty of data on Trump's standing with black voters. And all evidence unequivocally points to him doing very poorly, even by Republican standards. That evidence has been presented.

And yet there is no engagement at all from the Trump fans. Just repeating that he'll do great with black voters, exclamation mark.

[Gustaf]

I think that Trump would get around 12% of the black vote. You guys have to remember that Bush got 11% of the black vote against Kerry, and Trump is a much better fit for black voters because of the reasons I listed.

Bush got 11% before the surge of new African-American voters following Obama's candidacy (see the rise in black turnout from 2004 to 2008, 2012). The blacks who gave Bush 11% are probably still voting GOP; the difference is that they're now being drowned by other blacks who just entered the electorate.

Yup. I also think that the Obama presidency and the debate around it has hurt the GOP among black voters.

Plus the fact that Trump is a bad fit for minority voters in general.