White Catholics in N.Y.C.

[Suburbia]

Cinyc and I had a great conversation about White Catholic ethnic voters in New York City in boroughs such as Queens, Staten Island, Bronx, Brooklyn, and even some areas in Manhattan. Some of these voters are seen as "Giuliani Democrats", voters who voted for Rudy Giuliani for mayor in 1989, 1993, and 1997, while possibly voting for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and maybe even Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama. Some of these Catholics in N.Y.C. are seen as middle class white ethnics who are law and order type of voters, they also supported Michael Bloomberg for mayor, and some of them voted for 2013 runner-up Joe Lhota over Bill de Blasio for mayor.

How do you think they vote for in presidential and Senate elections in New York? Can they be a strong coalition for a long time or are their influence dwindling?

[King of Kensington]

A plurality of white Catholics in NYC are Italian and it seems that they're more right-wing than Italian Americans generally.

[Suburbia]

A plurality of white Catholics in NYC are Italian and it seems that they're more right-wing than Italian Americans generally.

Some of them starting voting Republican in local NYC elections when Giuliani ran again in 1993.

[King of Kensington]

According to Kevin Phillips, a lot of Irish Catholics in NYC voted for Nixon in 1960, doing much better among them than their New England counterparts or in Chicago.

Italian voters in NYC seem more right-wing than they are in New England and Chicago.  One thing to note is that the Italian neighborhoods of NYC are largely populated by postwar immigrants and their descendants; that may contribute to the more right-wing tilt.

What percentage of NH white New Yorkers as a whole vote GOP in presidential elections?

[YaBoyNY]

According to Kevin Phillips, a lot of Irish Catholics in NYC voted for Nixon in 1960, doing much better among them than their New England counterparts or in Chicago.

Italian voters in NYC seem more right-wing than they are in New England and Chicago.  One thing to note is that the Italian neighborhoods of NYC are largely populated by postwar immigrants and their descendants; that may contribute to the more right-wing tilt.

What percentage of NH white New Yorkers as a whole vote GOP in presidential elections?

In the state or the city?

In the state, NH whites tilt Dem (like 51/52%) and are on average about ten points more D than the whites nationwide. So about 48/49% GOP.

In the city it's probably somewhere between 70-80% Dem, 20-30% GOP.

[King of Kensington]

In the City itself. 

[YaBoyNY]

In the City itself. 

Then yeah, city whites are probably like 70-80% Dem and 20-30% GOP.

[King of Kensington]

I think it's got to be more like 65-35 in presidential election, assuming NHWs cast about 40-45% of the votes. 

Lots of conservative Italians, lots of Orthodox and Russian Jews etc.

What percentage of the city's whites live in Manhattan and northwest Brooklyn?

[YaBoyNY]

I think it's got to be more like 65-35 in presidential election, assuming NHWs cast about 40-45% of the votes.  

Lots of conservative Italians, lots of Orthodox and Russian Jews etc.

What percentage of the city's whites live in Manhattan and northwest Brooklyn?

28% are in Manhattan.
23% are in Queens.
11% are in Staten Island.
33% are in Brooklyn.
5% are in the Bronx.

Going with the 2010 Census' figure of 2,722,904 NHW New Yorkers, and assuming 35% of them voted, that gives us 953,016, or 39% of the 2,457,636 total votes cast. (40-45% is a little too high in my opinion, especially for 2012.)

If we assume Manhattan whites voted 80% Democratic, Brooklyn and Queens whites voted  70% Democratic, Bronx whites voted 90% Democratic, and Staten Island whites voted 40% Democratic, you're left with 672,000 raw Dem white votes and 281,000 raw Rep white votes. This gives you a urban NHW Dem vote in NYC of approximately 70%. Of course, the MoE amongst all the percentages given after the census information is about 5.

[Thunderbird is the word]

NYC, particularly Brooklyn has one of the highest levels of Democratic registration in the country though that includes a lot of conservative DINOs who only are registered Democrats to vote in primaries, which is why you oftentimes see a lot of law and order hawkish type moderates on the local level. I think there might be a lot of white Italian Catholics that fall into this category.

[King of Kensington]

Doesn't the Italian vote in NYC go about 60-40 GOP?