Who will win on Super Tuesday? (D)
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Poll
Question: Predict who will win each state on March 1st? 6 Days
#1
Alabama - Clinton		  
#2
Alabama - Sanders		  
#3
Arkansas - Clinton		  
#4
Arkansas - Sanders		  
#5
Colorado - Clinton		  
#6
Colorado - Sanders		  
#7
Georgia - Clinton		  
#8
Georgia - Sanders		  
#9
Massachusetts - Clinton		  
#10
Massachusetts - Sanders		  
#11
Minnesota - Clinton		  
#12
Minnesota - Sanders		  
#13
Oklahoma - Clinton		  
#14
Oklahoma - Sanders		  
#15
Tennessee - Clinton		  
#16
Tennessee - Sanders		  
#17
Texas - Clinton		  
#18
Texas - Sanders		  
#19
Vermont - Clinton (lol)		  
#20
Vermont - Sanders		  
#21
Virginia - Clinton		  
#22
Virginia - Sanders		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 99

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Author Topic: Who will win on Super Tuesday? (D)  (Read 7393 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: February 24, 2016, 06:48:14 PM »
« edited: February 24, 2016, 06:51:55 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Sanders: CO, MA, MN, and VT
Clinton: The rest

I want these threads to run up to the day of (but this is the 2016 board, so that probably won't happen) so you can change your vote.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2016, 06:54:00 PM »
If I were a betting man, I'd put money on Clinton winning Colorado. It's a closed caucus with no voter registration at the doors, one of the only caucuses to have that type of restriction. No Independents. No 17 year olds allowed. The voter registration deadline to participate in the Democratic caucus was January 4th.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2016, 06:54:20 PM »
Clinton: AL, GA, TN, VA. Sanders the rest
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2016, 06:56:15 PM »
Quote from: mathstatman on February 24, 2016, 06:54:20 PM
Clinton: AL, GA, TN, VA. Sanders the rest

Er, why? How?
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2016, 06:57:02 PM »
Single men
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Pyro
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2016, 06:59:13 PM »
Sanders wins VT, CO, MA, MN easily. Wins OK narrowly.
Clinton wins GA, AL, AK, TN, VA easily. Wins TX narrowly.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2016, 07:07:12 PM »
Clinton: AL, AR, GA, OK, TN, TX, and VA
Sanders: CO, MA, MN, and VT

OK and MA will be quite close.

Of course, I might update my predictions before Super Tuesday.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2016, 07:42:22 PM »
I'll know more on Saturday, but it is shaping up to be a very bad night for Sanders.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2016, 08:25:41 PM »
I still think it's too early... but

Clinton should win AL, ARK, GA, TN, VA and TX. Bernie should win VT, MN and CO... but I think MA and OK will be interesting. I say this because of my personal theory about the white vote ... MA and OK are two interesting test cases, so we'll see.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2016, 08:47:11 PM »
Once Clinton wins TX, its over, she sweeps South and win Ma
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2016, 10:05:04 PM »
Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, Virginia ..Sanders
he could win a majority of states, maybe more (Texas?)
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trickmind
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2016, 10:09:56 PM »
Sanders: CO, MN, and VT

Clinton wins the rest.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2016, 10:15:41 PM »
Sorry fellas. Sanders wins Vermont, Colorado, and Minnesota.
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2016, 10:16:04 PM »
Sanders is winning some national polls, so all the talk of Clinton sealing the nomination in March may turn out to be premature.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2016, 10:17:09 PM »
Quote from: Sanders beats Rubio! on February 24, 2016, 10:16:04 PM
Sanders is winning some national polls, so all the talk of Clinton sealing the nomination in March may turn out to be premature.

No credible national polls. She's up by around 8-10 nationally. Also... VA? lol
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2016, 10:24:43 PM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on February 24, 2016, 10:17:09 PM
Quote from: Sanders beats Rubio! on February 24, 2016, 10:16:04 PM
Sanders is winning some national polls, so all the talk of Clinton sealing the nomination in March may turn out to be premature.

No credible national polls. She's up by around 8-10 nationally. Also... VA? lol
Virginia is possible. She would be below 50% if you subtract the margin of error and the undecideds go for Sanders. The gap has been closing rapidly in state and national polls, not in time for a big Sanders victory March 1, but that is a lot of southern states where he is weakest, he is stronger in the rest of the country.
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2016, 10:28:37 PM »
Sanders wins VT 85-90%, MN 55-60%, and MA 50-55%. Clinton takes CO and OK 50-55%, and the rest convincingly.
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2016, 10:30:01 PM »
CLINTON: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia
SANDERS: Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma (!), Vermont
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2016, 10:32:44 PM »
Anybody who thinks Sanders is winning Virginia is going to get a massive reality check.

This is a horrible state for Sanders.  Lots of African Americans, and a large portion of the Democratic whites have high incomes, another bad group for him.  Sanders is spending nothing here, basically forfeiting the state, while the Clinton campaign is investing significantly.

Its very telling that the best poll for Sanders in the state is a CNU poll (basically, a crappy uni poll) showing him down by double digits.
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defe07
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« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2016, 12:06:22 AM »
I think a decent night for bernie would be to win co, mn, vt, ma and ok and be competitive in some hillary states (maybe overperform in tn and tx??)
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2016, 12:10:24 AM »
Sanders wins VT, MA, MN easily. Wins CO narrowly.
Clinton wins one of GA/TX, AL, OK, TN, VA easily. Wins GA or TX narrowly.

If Alaska votes, it Tilts Sanders. Not easily, but above two percentages. I thought AK was only for Republicans, though.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2016, 12:51:11 AM »
Quote from: Sanders beats Rubio! on February 24, 2016, 10:24:43 PM
No credible national polls. She's up by around 8-10 nationally. Also... VA? lol
Virginia is possible. She would be below 50% if you subtract the margin of error and the undecideds go for Sanders. The gap has been closing rapidly in state and national polls, not in time for a big Sanders victory March 1, but that is a lot of southern states where he is weakest, he is stronger in the rest of the country.
[/quote]
That's not how margin of error works...
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xingkerui
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« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2016, 01:20:19 AM »
For the record, I could see Virginia being closer than the other Southern states (other than Oklahoma), but I don't see any way Sanders wins there. Maybe he gets 45%, though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: February 28, 2016, 01:49:58 AM »
Two more days, thus far:

Alabama: 100% Clinton
Arkansas: 98% Clinton, 2% Sanders
Colorado: 80% Sanders, 20% Clinton
Georgia: 100% Clinton
Massachusetts: 64% Sanders, 36% Clinton
Minnesota: 81% Sanders, 19% Clinton
Oklahoma: 69% Clinton, 31% Sanders
Tennessee: 95% Clinton, 5% Sanders
Texas: 96% Clinton, 4% Sanders
Vermont: 97% Sanders, 3% Clinton
Virginia: 95% Clinton, 5% Sanders
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: February 28, 2016, 01:51:34 AM »
My only #edgy bet is that Sanders loses Colorado but wins Oklahoma.
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