Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016

[DavidB.]

In somewhat less than seven months, the next Russian legislative election will take place, so I decided to create a thread about this.

The results of this election will be rigged to some extent, but I still do not consider this an "electoral-type event": it is more the process than the actual election that is problematic (which does not mean the actual election is unproblematic). Freedom House classifies Russia as "unfree"; the country scores 6 out of 7 on political freedom (1 = very good, 7 = very bad) and the country has had a weak civil society as a result of its Communist history. To the extent that non-systemic opposition (i.e. real opposition) forces exist, they are prevented from participating in the election by having to collect 150,000 signatures (fourteen parties -- mainly fake "opposition" ones -- are exempt from this), a 5% threshold and, if all fails, by the creation of pro-Kremlin "spoiler parties", which seem ideologically close to the new real opposition party (and "steal" some of their voters) yet are pro-Kremlin vehicles. Extremely biased media coverage, in which "real" opposition parties will not get much (if any) attention, also helps the regime.

It is not meaningful to think in terms of "parties that are in power". United Russia is not a real "party" in the Western sense, it is mainly a vehicle for Putin to maintain popular support; in reality, the decisionmaking process takes place behind closed doors. The informal political process (which includes paraconstitutional institutions) is much more important than the official political process. Putin's power is mainly based on his ability to satisfy and cooperate with several Russian elitist "factions": the regional elites, the FSB (secret service)/army elites ("siloviki"), the industrial elites etc. Putin stands above all these elites (while also relying on them) and makes sure every elite faction is taken care of in the decisionmaking process, which is why the elites have an interest in keeping Putin in power. So, it is important to keep in mind that these elections don't really matter. The parliament is just a tool for Putin.

There are currently four parties in the Duma. Russia's electoral system will change: it used list-based PR with an electoral threshold of 5%, but will now elect half of its 450 seats through FPTP with single-member districts (this electoral system was also used from 1993 until 2003), which will benefit United Russia.

United Russia is Putin's pro-Kremlin regime party. Its chairman is current Prime Minister and former president Dmitriy Medvedev. It has no coherent ideology and has mainly been classified as a "party of power", though it claims to be "Russian conservative" (whatever that may mean). Newsflash: it will "win" the election (sorry for spoiling this, folks). In the last election it won 49.3%. The numbers in the polls (some of which might be just as credible as the amazing US "pollster" called Overtime Politics) vary by a lot (from 39% to 51%; but they take into account undecideds so the actual percentage will be higher), but Putin's approvals have gone up because of the "rallying around the flag" that followed the intervention in Crimea, and I also expect the party to win a larger number of seats than in 2011 because of the changed electoral system: FPTP benefits "parties of power".

The Communist Party is the successor of the Soviet Union Communists, which were banned by then-president Yeltsin in 1993. The party is widely understood as the most "sincere" opposition party in Russia, though it still votes along with United Russia most of the time. It is very weak and not in any way a real or meaningful challenger to United Russia, which is why it is still able to run. The Communists also took over many of United Russia's talking points, e.g. regarding "propaganda" for homosexuality. The commies received just over 19% of the vote in 2011, but are now expected to be somewhere around 10% (though, again, I don't trust the polls and neither should you).

Vladimir Volfovich Eidelstein Zhirinovskiy ("my mother was a Russian and my father was a lawyer") is the weird leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR). Despite its name (much liberal, so progressive, very wow, nice guy FF ), this party is not like the UK Lib Dems, D66 or Radikale Venstre, but rather a far-right, radically nationalist, racist, authoritarian party. Its "ideology" is mainly based on the idea of a Greater Russia, but its economic ideas are more leftist; however, like all Russian parties, ideology does not actually matter and at the end of the day the LDPR is often considered a "controlled opposition party" that almost always votes along with United Russia. It received almost 12% of the vote in the 2011 election; now it hovers between 5% and 9%, but some undecideds will go for the LDPR again so its result will likely be similar to that in 2011.

The fourth party in parliament is the weird vehicle that is A Just Russia. This party is social democratic in name ("a left-wing alternative to the Communists"), but in reality it is created by the Kremlin in order not to "put all eggs in one basket": the idea was to create several parties, partly to create a perception of genuine electoral competition, partly as an indicator for the Kremlin of what policies would be popular, and partly in order not to be too dependent on the popularity of the meaningless vehicle that is United Russia. This is an interesting article (albeit not too detailed) about the creation of this party. In short, A Just Russia is a fake opposition party. In the 2011 election, more than 8 million people (13.2%) still voted for this party. Polls have the party around 6%, just over the 5% threshold, but I would be very surprised if the party wouldn't reach the threshold (and that has not much to do with actual electoral popularity).

Don't expect real opposition parties to get into parliament.

I don't really know what else to write on this  (could write a lot, but most of it might be besides the point and tl;dr), so I just post it now.

[Crumpets]

I suppose there's an outside chance that Yabloko (probably the biggest actual "opposition" party) might be able to win a seat, although they would have an uphill climb.

I went to an LDPR rally once when I was in Russia just out of curiosity. It was concerning how much of their supporter base seems to be young people and college-age students - not at all like the Tea Party or a lot of European far-right parties, to the best of my knowledge. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually see a bit of a renaissance in the coming years.

[DavidB.]

Yabloko has been weak for years and years and I don't think there's any chance they will pass the threshold (and if there was, the threshold would have been raised to 7% again, like in the 2007 election). The LDPR's official ideology is basically Putin interventionism on steroids, so given Russia's recent military actions in the region (and the response in society to that), which have fuelled nationalist sentiments, it would make sense if the party is becoming more popular. Must have been a fascinating experience to attend such a rally

[ag]

I suppose there's an outside chance that Yabloko (probably the biggest actual "opposition" party) might be able to win a seat, although they would have an uphill climb.

I went to an LDPR rally once when I was in Russia just out of curiosity. It was concerning how much of their supporter base seems to be young people and college-age students - not at all like the Tea Party or a lot of European far-right parties, to the best of my knowledge. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually see a bit of a renaissance in the coming years.

Electoral-type events should not be discussed on this board.

[DavidB.]

Electoral-type events should not be discussed on this board.

The mere fact that an election, in terms of democracy, is not exactly like the most recent Danish or Finnish election has never been a reason not to discuss it. Of course Russian parties are fake and the results will be rigged, but that does not mean discussing Russian politics cannot be interesting or relevant in its own way.

[ag]

Russia has not had elections in years, and is not planning any. Discussion of Russian politics should be done on a different board.

[DavidB.]

Russia has not had elections in years, and is not planning any. Discussion of Russian politics should be done on a different board.

No. All threads on non-democratic and not-entirely-democratic elections are on this board too (e.g. this one).

It is amazing how you, as a moderator, actively seek to prevent people from contributing to this forum. If you don't like this thread, you should report it to Hash (though you know as well as I that this belongs here; you are just trying to make me waste my time again), but I'd like you to stop trolling here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But in the spirit of compromise: why not change the thread title to 'election'?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I disagree that thread about Russian elections should be deleted or moved to some other place in the forum.
I think that the solution proposed by Sibboleth is the best.

[DavidB.]

Not going to change it. Everybody on Atlas knows that, in terms of democracy, a Russian parliamentary election is not like the Irish election that will take place tomorrow. And if someone doesn't, they don't belong here in the first place.

Let's talk about Russian politics instead of fuelling silly attempts at trolling.

[ag]

I disagree that thread about Russian elections should be deleted or moved to some other place in the forum.
I think that the solution proposed by Sibboleth is the best.

Ok. However, since I do not believe in fairy tales, I am afraid, I do not have much to contribute here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's talk about Russian politics instead of fuelling silly attempts at trolling.

But surely it isn't possible to talk about Russian politics without also...

[DC Al Fine]

Wasn't there a pro-Kremlin free market party around a few years ago? Are they still around, and if so, how will they do?

[DavidB.]

Wasn't there a pro-Kremlin free market party around a few years ago? Are they still around, and if so, how will they do?

Yes, Pravoye Delo. Hailed by free-market Westerners, but also widely regarded as belonging to the category of fake opposition parties. They also belong to the category of 14 parties that do not have to have 150,000 signatures to contend in the elections and I suppose they might contend, although I don't find anything indicating they will do so on their website (but my Russian isn't that good), which is basically full of uninteresting facts. Indicates that even if they contend, they probably won't reach the threshold.

Interesting article on the party here, indicating that they are virtually dead, but I'm not sure if that is still the case. They have seats in the regional parliaments of Ingushetia and Dagestan, presumably because they are fiscally liberal and socially conservative

[ag]

Let's talk about Russian politics instead of fuelling silly attempts at trolling.

But surely it isn't possible to talk about Russian politics without also...

... Russian politics talking about you?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I mean, maybe I'm overly naive, but does Putin even need to fake the results? From what I remember last time, the ballot stuffing in 2011 was due to overeager regional cronies showing off and I'm willing to bet they'll be instructed to knock that off because it was really embarrassing for Russia. This time around, there's literally no non-joke opposition that hasn't been pushed off the scene, his approval ratings are sky high etc.

Is there a map of constituencies? Does it include The Peninsula That Must Not Be Named?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's talk about Russian politics instead of fuelling silly attempts at trolling.

But surely it isn't possible to talk about Russian politics without also...

... Russian politics talking about you?

Quite so.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Is there a map of constituencies? Does it include The Peninsula That Must Not Be Named?

As far as I can understand: Russian wiki says there will be 4 constituencies on Crimea, one for Sevastopol and three additional for peninsula.

[tpfkaw]

I mean, maybe I'm overly naive, but does Putin even need to fake the results? From what I remember last time, the ballot stuffing in 2011 was due to overeager regional cronies showing off and I'm willing to bet they'll be instructed to knock that off because it was really embarrassing for Russia.

United Russia always gets 100% of the vote on 100% turnout in Chechnya.

[Vosem]

I mean, maybe I'm overly naive, but does Putin even need to fake the results? From what I remember last time, the ballot stuffing in 2011 was due to overeager regional cronies showing off and I'm willing to bet they'll be instructed to knock that off because it was really embarrassing for Russia.

United Russia always gets 100% of the vote on 100% turnout in Chechnya.

There's a difference between faking the results in Chechnya, where everyone knows the consequences of not voting for the Yedrobots multiple times and being cheerful about it, and in Moscow, where some youth with an Internet connection could make a scene.

[Clyde1998]

Oddly, in 2011, the opinion polls put United Russia about 5% higher than they actually got in the Duma election. This might be down to turnout or due to the last poll being two weeks before the elections, rather than anything radical. Also, United Russia were way down on the previous election in 2007.

VCIOM poll (19-20 Nov 2011)
United Russia - 53.7%
Communist - 16.7%
Liberal Dems - 11.6%
A Just Russia - 10.0%

Duma election (4 Dec 2011)
United Russia - 49.3% (-15.0 on 2007)
Communist - 19.2% (+7.6)
A Just Russia - 13.2% (+5.5)
Liberal Dems - 11.7% (+3.5)

That's not to say that there wasn't voting fraud, as it's pretty clear that there was. It would be interesting to know how transparent Russian opinion polling is, though.

[Zuza]

Oddly, in 2011, the opinion polls put United Russia about 5% higher than they actually got in the Duma election. This might be down to turnout or due to the last poll being two weeks before the elections, rather than anything radical. Also, United Russia were way down on the previous election in 2007.

VCIOM poll (19-20 Nov 2011)
United Russia - 53.7%
Communist - 16.7%
Liberal Dems - 11.6%
A Just Russia - 10.0%

Duma election (4 Dec 2011)
United Russia - 49.3% (-15.0 on 2007)
Communist - 19.2% (+7.6)
A Just Russia - 13.2% (+5.5)
Liberal Dems - 11.7% (+3.5)

That's not to say that there wasn't voting fraud, as it's pretty clear that there was. It would be interesting to know how transparent Russian opinion polling is, though.

This is mostly because of conformism (people give socially desirable responses) and because of undecideds more often tend to support opposition parties in the last moment. By the way, Navalny (one of the main leaders of non-system opposition) called his supporters to vote for any party besides United Russia (though this probably had little direct effect). Note that the poll underestimated KPRF (which is reluctantly supported by many anti-ER voters as the largest alternative and more genuine opposition than other 2 parliamentary parties) and A Just Russia (which is less unacceptable for many voters because, unlike KPRF and LDPR, it doesn't adhere to extremist ideology), but not LDPR. In all other polls, A Just Russia also was at the 4th place.

Turnout probably also affected results. And it's also likely that in the last 2 weeks United Russia actually lost some support.

Polls tend to overestimate pro-government candidates and somewhat overestimate LDPR (because of lower turnout of LDPR supporters). In the 2011 elections the difference between polls and official election results was small due to vote rigging, but in the 2013 Moscow mayoral elections, where there was very little vote fraud, Navalny surprisingly received much more votes than it was predicted by any pollster.

[Zuza]

The Communists also took over many of United Russia's talking points, e.g. regarding "propaganda" for homosexuality.

Actually, they were anti-gay long before it was cool, I mean, before United Russia started it's anti-LGBT campaign.

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No, Kremlin won't actively help it to get into the parliament. Maybe initially there was an intention to establish a fake two-party system with "right-wing" United Russia and "left-wing" A Just Russia, but if such plan ever existed, it was abandoned long ago. Ahead of the 2011 elections, A Just Russia went out of control, at least partially, and some of it's members played a major role in 2011-2012 protests together with non-system opposition. Most of them have been expelled from the party since then, and now it seems to be as pro-Kremlin as it was initially. But even in 2007, when A Just Russia was fully loyal to it's masters and close to not passing the threshold, the only party that got "votes" due to rigging was United Russia. And things probably won't change this time.

[Zuza]

Wasn't there a pro-Kremlin free market party around a few years ago? Are they still around, and if so, how will they do?

Yes, Pravoye Delo. Hailed by free-market Westerners, but also widely regarded as belonging to the category of fake opposition parties. They also belong to the category of 14 parties that do not have to have 150,000 signatures to contend in the elections and I suppose they might contend, although I don't find anything indicating they will do so on their website (but my Russian isn't that good), which is basically full of uninteresting facts. Indicates that even if they contend, they probably won't reach the threshold.

Interesting article on the party here, indicating that they are virtually dead, but I'm not sure if that is still the case. They have seats in the regional parliaments of Ingushetia and Dagestan, presumably because they are fiscally liberal and socially conservative

Prokhorov created his own party, named Civic Platform, in 2012. By the way, Roizman (mentioned in the article) won 2013 mayoral elections in Yekaterinburg under Civic Platform banner.

But later Prokhorov lost control over his new creation (not sure to what extent it was again due to Kremlin manipulations) and left it. Now both Right Cause and Civic Platform are dead corpses, though they will probably take part in the elections as spoilers.