Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016

[Zuza]

From what I remember last time, the ballot stuffing in 2011 was due to overeager regional cronies showing off and I'm willing to bet they'll be instructed to knock that off because it was really embarrassing for Russia.

Vote rigging will happen for sure, but maybe on a smaller scale due to the reasons you've stated.

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Actually, there are basically no changes from the last election: all the parties (including those that can be counted as opposition) from 2011 election will probably run, and, moreover, PARNAS (one of the 3 main parties of liberal opposition, together with Yabloko and unregistered Progress Party) have a right to take part in the election this time.

Progress Party members will participate under PARNAS banner, and maybe all 3 parties will try to form a joint list. But even then they will have very little chance to succeed.

[Zanas]

United Russia is Putin's pro-Kremlin regime party. In the last election it won 49.3%.

From a French point of view, this is by itself hilarious. Let's see if y'all nerds get it.

On the "election", I hope that turnout will reach the 2011 record of 140% in some places !

I don't really have anything to say other than jokes, since, you know, this is what this whole thing is. But I'm okay with it being discussed here, and the political, though not electoral, consequences are real.

[Famous Mortimer]

According to Wikipedia, in addition to A Just Russia, Rodina (Motherland) also exists again. Rodina was the party that turned into A Just Russia. Now it's back and led by a former United Russia member apparently.

[aross]

Well, only a month to go! Are you getting excited yet?

14 parties have successfully registered to run -  these are, as Wikipedia puts it, "entirely coincidentally" the 14 parties not required to collect signatures, a status seemingly entirely in the gift of the Kremlin. They are:

Rodina
Communists of Russia
Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice
United Russia
Russian Ecological Party "The Greens"
Civic Platform
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia
People's Freedom Party
Party of Growth
Civilian Power
Yabloko
Communist Party of the Russian Federation
Patriots of Russia
A Just Russia

Anybody who knows more about Russian politics who can tell if any of the above are genuine opposition? Yabloko used to be decent if somewhat incompetent, but ISTR reading that they too had been infiltrated.

Meanwhile, 8 other parties were refused a place on the ballot by the Electoral Commission for reasons of varying degrees of dodgyness.

I'm not sure I agree on (part-)FPTP being good for Putin. I mean, yeah, he'll increase his majority, but he hardly ever needs it anyway, the opposition is fake after all and will generally support him + his MPs by now know to be loyal. And on the other hand there surely has to be a decent chance of a Real Opposition (tm) candidate getting in in some bobo district of Moscow and thus gaining a platform?

EDIT: Ah. He's gerrymandered the cities by carving them up and putting them in with rural areas. Would be ironic if the US criticised him for that...

[ag]

No. Nothing to be excited about.

[Hash]

This is a serious board for serious discussion, not 4chan or reddit or whatever, so let's cut out the stupid memes.

Wikipedia's map of the new single-member districts is frustratingly small. Is there a larger (zoomable) version somewhere else?

[Zuza]

Wikipedia map is SVG, it can be rendered in different sizes up to 10000px.

Quick googling didn't find anything better.

[Zuza]

Anybody who knows more about Russian politics who can tell if any of the above are genuine opposition? Yabloko used to be decent if somewhat incompetent, but ISTR reading that they too had been infiltrated.

Of these 14, People's Freedom Party is certainly a genuine opposition. Yabloko too, maybe somewhat less genuine. It can be argued to what extent KPRF is an opposition.

[ag]

Anybody who knows more about Russian politics who can tell if any of the above are genuine opposition? Yabloko used to be decent if somewhat incompetent, but ISTR reading that they too had been infiltrated.

Of these 14, People's Freedom Party is certainly a genuine opposition. Yabloko too, maybe somewhat less genuine. It can be argued to what extent KPRF is an opposition.

I disagree. If anything, Yabloko has some people who are genuine: e.g. Shlossberg. Hard to find anybody as clearly in opposition as that in any other party.

Basically, the assumption should be that all opposition parties are a) heavily infiltrated and b) have to get most of their activities approved in the Kremlin. An occasional individual in some of those parties may be personally clean and genuine. People´s Freedom has been completely destroyed from inside. Its wreck is only in the race, at this point, to demonstrate to the public the lack of support for liberal ideas in the society (and, just in case, they also created the Growth Party to stand in the same ideological space, featuring some well-known have-beens).  Yabloko, if anything, is a bit more of an actual organization, with long-term membership base, so, despite being willing to bend and compromise on far too many things, it is, in the end, at least somewhat out there.  

In any case, whether any of these parties are in the next Duma will not likely be primarily determined by the actual votes cast, but by the decisions taken somewhere in the presidential administration. Party leaders know it, and they play by the rules. Honestly, the real discussion of this election should start with the discussion of office space allocation in a certain office building on the Old Square. And no, this is not a stupid meme.

[smoltchanov]

Most likely it will go following way:

1. "United Russia" - unquestionably biggest party in Duma, though, possibly, with slightly lesser number of seats (and may be  - not even that)

2-3 Communist party & LDPR with similar number of seats (Communists have bigger and stronger infrastructure and, at least, sometimes, vote against ruling party, but Zhirinovski has much bigger personal charisma then Zyuganov)

4 (may be) "Fair Russia", which hovers about 5% mark.

That's all, folks. It's less then a month until election day, and campaign is barely visible even in Moscow. Most people are apathetic and resigned to continuos "United Russia" rule. "Administrative resource" (ability of powers that be to influence election results in a way favorable to them (not neccessary direct vote fraud, BTW)) is still strong. So - don't expect many surprises))))

[ag]

Most people are apathetic and resigned to continuos "United Russia" rule.

One correction. There is no "United Russia" rule. The "party" itself is pretty irrelevant. Nobody takes it seriously and it does not have much of influence on anything. In some (many) places locally influential people could be also party leaders, but their influence has nothing to do with their party role: the latter is just a manifestation of their influence, not the other way around. Unlike the Soviet days, when The Party was really the government of the country, these days United Russia has a lot less influence on anything than Reince Priebus has on the Trump campaign. It is an occasionally convenient element of the government machine: but among the less important ones. Tomorrow the will could absorb it into the government as some sort of a presidential administration department, and nobody would even notice. I mean, a few smart alecks in Moscow would wisecrack for a couple days: but that would be about it.

[ag]

Just to be clear. Russia is not an electoral democracy. An election might be a catalyst of government change in the future: but only because the popular discontent would cause a revolution at some point. For the moment, the level of such discontent necessary for government change is equal to that necessary to start a popular revolt. And it is not, at present. Elections themselves,except as, potentially, focal points for such discontent in the future, do not matter. They are just rituals, parts of a bizarre cargo cult. It makes no sense to take them seriously. A few dissident-like characters participate in this for dissidentish reasons (same way as the dissidents of the past would demonstrate with the slogan: "respect the Soviet Constitution"). I highly admire that, but it does not make an election. Everybody else is in it for very narrow private reasons, usually having to do with being on government pay. Nobody today expects anything else from the exercise.

[smoltchanov]

^ Agreed. When i said that "United Russia" will be a winner - that simply meant that out of 450 members of Duma abput 300 will belong to its caucus. No less, but no more...

P.S. Russia was (despite some peculiar features) electoral democracy in the 90th, when lot of parties participated, and, as inexperienced (sometimes - clumsy) they were - there was real choice between candidates. But - not now. May be - 10-12 years later... When Putin and his buddies will be gone - situation will change rather quickly (more quickly then in 1950th, after Stalin's death), and present system will be replaced with something new, though it's difficult to say now - what it will be.

[DC Al Fine]

Are the commies an actual opposition party or are they controlled by the Kremlin as well?

[smoltchanov]

Are the commies an actual opposition party or are they controlled by the Kremlin as well?

Something in between... Mostly - controlled by means of numerous government distributed perks, but at least - not so corrupt as LDPR and slightly more critical (from the "communist left", of course) of government then "Fair Russia"

[Hnv1]

So how is the communist party nowadays? what kind of platform are they "running on"?

What is the stance of the different parties towards the Ukraine crisis and Russian expansion?

[smoltchanov]

So how is the communist party nowadays? what kind of platform are they "running on"?

What is the stance of the different parties towards the Ukraine crisis and Russian expansion?

1. Standard unreconstructed platform of former KPSU: for "developed socialism with communist perspective". No real transformation to socialist or social-democratic party (as was even in Eastern Europe), though begrudgingly recognizes private property now... Less internationalist and substantially more nationalist then KPSU though...

2. All for parties, represented in present Duma, are anti-Ukranian (at least - anti-post Maidan-Ukranian) and, mostly, anti-West in general. Correspondingly - all are absolutely "for" Rusian expansion: the more - the better...

[ag]

So how is the communist party nowadays? what kind of platform are they "running on"?

What is the stance of the different parties towards the Ukraine crisis and Russian expansion?

1. Standard unreconstructed platform of former KPSU: for "developed socialism with communist perspective". No real transformation to socialist or social-democratic party (as was even in Eastern Europe), though begrudgingly recognizes private property now... Less internationalist and substantially more nationalist then KPSU though...

2. All for parties, represented in present Duma, are anti-Ukranian (at least - anti-post Maidan-Ukranian) and, mostly, anti-West in general. Correspondingly - all are absolutely "for" Rusian expansion: the more - the better...

1. | would stress that ever since the Soviet collapse mainstream Russian Communists have been, in fact, pretty much ultra-nationalist and extremely conservative on all social matters. These days they are also quite friendly with the clerical circles. Basically, if a European liberal wants a caricature to hate, Russian Communists are it.

2. Yabloko and People's Freedom are pretty much the only ones who have some prominent members who are publicly on record as being opposed to what has been done in Ukraine. In fact some People's Freedom candidates demonstratively asked Ukrainian embassy for a permission to campaign in Crimea (it was denied). Yabloko's Shlossberg has become prominent by exposing the government lies about "non-intervention" into Ukraine (he was a local council member in Pskov, where a major Russian special forces unit is based, and he publicised casualties it had). It is not a popular position within the country, but it is a niche. As I said, on individual level some candidates in these elections are real opposition. Their parties... Well it is, at best, somewhat ambiguous.

Yabloko is also deliberately stressing rights and contributions of the Muslim minority in Russia: People's Freedom is more Russian nationalist on that.

[smoltchanov]

^ Absolutely agree on BOTH points. But i spoke about parties, which have good chances to be represented in the next Duma. Yabloko may elect 1 or 2 in some districts (the electoral system is mixed in Russia this year: half will be elected by parties, half - by districts), but - that's all...

[GMantis]

2. Yabloko and People's Freedom are pretty much the only ones who have some prominent members who are publicly on record as being opposed to what has been done in Ukraine. In fact some People's Freedom candidates demonstratively asked Ukrainian embassy for a permission to campaign in Crimea (it was denied).

It seems these parties (Yabloko stated that they would exchange Crimea for an iPhone) are not especially concerned about losing even more of the little support they have. A good idea would have been to propose a new referendum in the Crimea which would at least get some attention and could highlight the illegality of the 2014 referendum. But it would be rather unpopular outside Russia, which I guess is more important for these parties.

[pilskonzept]

It seems these parties (Yabloko stated that they would exchange Crimea for an iPhone) are not especially concerned about losing even more of the little support they have. A good idea would have been to propose a new referendum in the Crimea which would at least get some attention and could highlight the illegality of the 2014 referendum. But it would be rather unpopular outside Russia, which I guess is more important for these parties.

Trolling gets them just as much attention. And, you know...it's unarmed trolling.

[Zuza]

Yabloko stated that they would exchange Crimea for an iPhone

It seems you're wrong.

I became curious where did Yabloko say this, but found out only an article on a not well known site whose author figuratively tells that Yabloko proposes to exchange Crimea for iPhone; in the article he comments a political ad where Yavlinsky parodies iPhone presentation (keep in mind that "Yabloko" means "apple"), but this ad doesn't mention iPhone directly, and doesn't mention Crimea at all, directly or not.

[ag]

2. Yabloko and People's Freedom are pretty much the only ones who have some prominent members who are publicly on record as being opposed to what has been done in Ukraine. In fact some People's Freedom candidates demonstratively asked Ukrainian embassy for a permission to campaign in Crimea (it was denied).

It seems these parties (Yabloko stated that they would exchange Crimea for an iPhone) are not especially concerned about losing even more of the little support they have. A good idea would have been to propose a new referendum in the Crimea which would at least get some attention and could highlight the illegality of the 2014 referendum. But it would be rather unpopular outside Russia, which I guess is more important for these parties.

Remember: if these were real elections, than, for a party merely trying to cross the 5% threshold "Crimea is Ukrainian" could be a very advantageous position. Yes, most Russians would hate it. But there are well over 5% who would be extremely strongly attracted to it. This is not a presidential race. A minority party could do very well on this platform. As it is, the main attraction of Yabloko this year is Shlossberg. And Shlossberg pretty much symbolises the anti-war position here.

[ag]

One peculiar thing about this "election" is scarcity of public polls. VTSiOM, of course, produces some fairly regular numbers (39.3% UR, 10.4% LDPR, 8.7% CPRF, 5.3% JR, everybody else under 2% each - yes, with decimals), but they are pretty much alone, and who knows, whether they actually poll, or get the results straight from the Presidential Administration. Levada-Center (a marginally more independent pollster) has reported vaguely similar numbers, but slightly less impressive  for UR (31% UR, 10% CPRF, 9% LDPR, 5% JR nobody else above 1%) - and still got itself declared a foreign agent (which means it will, probably, ahve to close soon). And I am pretty damn interested to know if there is really much else.

Of course, there are all sorts of vague rumors ("Yabloko in 3rd in Moscow! Double digits!" whatever). But the lack of public polls is interesting

[ag]

I doubt anyone cares (I, certainly, do not), but there seems to be a no-name poll for one district in Moscow on a pro-government new site. Whatever it means (probably nothing), but, anyway, we do not have many polls for this "election".

Medvedkovo district (northern Moscow: not particularly rich, definitely not an opposition stronghold - but, still, Moscow).

Plan to vote 40.1%
Will not vote for anyone 22.1%
Will not come to vote 19%
Undecided whom to vote for 18.8%

Of the total number polled, expressed preference for a political party:
United Russia 36.2%
LDPR 14.4%
Yabloko 5.5%
Communist Party of RF 5.2%
Just Russia 5.2%
Greens (whatever) 3.1%
Communists of Russia (the more radical/expansionist version of the Commies) 1.8%
Patriots of Russia 1.3%
everybody else 1% or less each.

I guess, what this indicates, mostly, is the government's willingness to recognise Yabloko in 3rd within Moscow. A sop to the urban liberals.