Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

B R E A K I N G N E W S

United Russia won! [see photos]

[smoltchanov]

B R E A K I N G N E W S

United Russia won! [see photos]

No one has doubts about that from the beginning. But next election to Duma (in 2020) will be more interesting. Time is needed....

[jaichind]

Exit polls show United Russia wins around 45% of the vote.   That would be down from 49.3% in 2011.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

B R E A K I N G N E W S

United Russia won! [see photos]

No one has doubts about that from the beginning. But next election to Duma (in 2020) will be more interesting. Time is needed....

I just tried to be funny.

[reciprocity]

Exit polls show United Russia wins around 45% of the vote.   That would be down from 49.3% in 2011.

Interesting... I can't wait to see the seat distributions with the messy parallel voting system.

[Zuza]

A very preliminary official results for single-member districts: United Russia 180, A Just Russia 6, KPRF 5, LDPR 4, Growth Party 2, Civic Platform 1, Rodina 1 and, notably, Yabloko 1.

Another very notorious fact is that turnout is a record low (40.37 % down from 60.1 % in 2011). And this is despite regional differences clearly show that it was falsified in some places (Kemerovo oblast 80 %, Tymen oblast 74 % etc.). But in most regions turnout doesn't seem to be especially abnormal (map) which, together with not very impressive United Russia result, suggests that overall level of vote fraud probably isn't that high.

So far the 5th place is occupied by Communists of Russia who siphoned off many KPRF votes (they ran under a similar name "Communist Party Communists of Russia" and a very similar logo and many KPRF voters are senile pensioners who can be easily fooled by such tricks).

[DC Al Fine]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

[Zuza]

Didn't win yet, just leading in vote count. It wasn't entirely unexpected for liberal opposition to win a seat or two in some places where they have a strong candidate and vote rigging is small. 3 years ago Yabloko-backed independent won mayoral elections in Petrozavodsk.

Update (single-member districts): United Russia 198, KPRF 7, A Just Russia 5, LDPR 5, Civic Platform 1, Growth Party 1, Yabloko 1, independent 1; another 5 districts didn't report any results yet.

In multi-member constituency United Russia result is 52 % now and this percentage will probably continue to grow.

So the only thing that actually surprised me is a turnout, I expected it to be lower, but not that low.

[smoltchanov]

Didn't win yet, just leading in vote count. It wasn't entirely unexpected for liberal opposition to win a seat or two in some places where they have a strong candidate and vote rigging is small. 3 years ago Yabloko-backed independent won mayoral elections in Petrozavodsk.

Update: United Russia 198, KPRF 7, A Just Russia 5, LDPR 5, Civic Platform 1, Growth Party 1, Yabloko 1, independent 1; another 5 districts didn't report any results yet.

Also United Russia result is 52 % now and will probably continue to grow.

So the only thing that actually surprised me is turnout, I expected it to be lower, but not that low.

And "United Russia" could win even some more: about half of districts, which went for other parties didn't have "United Russia" candidates at all. It's victories in district elections are easily explainable - usually there are 6-10 candidates in every district. "United Russia" almost always can count on 30-35% vote minimum (usually - even more), In 10-candidates race (and, mostly, even in 6-candidate) that's more then enough for victory..

[jaichind]

With 25% of the vote counred it is.  United Russia 51% LDP 15% Communists 15% Fair Russia 6%

[Zuza]

And "United Russia" could win even some more: about half of districts, which went for other parties didn't have "United Russia" candidates at all.

Yes, I forgot to mention this. United Russia didn't field candidates in 18 districts (I thought this number is smaller), including a places where Civic Platform and Rodina leaders run (unsurprisingly since Rodina leader Zhuravlyov is a former UR member). So actually not even a half, but a majority.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency but didn't cross the threshold.

[ag]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

[2952-0-0]

Were the "Communists of Russia" a Kremlin-backed puppet to siphon off votes from the KPRF (yes, the KPRF is also Kremlin-backed, but maybe Putin wanted to ensure his margin of victory was comfortable)?

[2952-0-0]

I notice that turnout in the North Caucasus republics were 70-85%, instead of the 99.9% they usually declare.

[smoltchanov]

Were the "Communists of Russia" a Kremlin-backed puppet to siphon off votes from the KPRF (yes, the KPRF is also Kremlin-backed, but maybe Putin wanted to ensure his margin of victory was comfortable)?

I think so.

And some general observations:

After 93% of vote in "United Russia" has 54.28% of vote and 343  seats in Duma (out of 450), so it's a constitutional majority Communists have 42 seats, LDPR (Zhirinovski) - 39, "Just Russia" - 23. Other - 3 (all in districts, where "United Russia" didn't run candidates, in fact - if it ran candidates in ALL 225-single-member districts it would win about 218-220 of them, because even in worst districts (St. Petersburg, Moscow) it's candidates can reliably count on 25-35% of vote, which is almost always enough for victory). "Yabloko" and other democratic parties failed to win even a single seat in Duma, though they were close in some Moscow and St. Petersburg districts, and would win them, wouldn't "democratic vote" be split between "Yabloko", Greens, "Party of growth" and PARNAS. In fact - Russia's democrats must remember a simple truth: for foreseable future - no more then 1 candidate in one district!!! Otherwise situation will be like "top 2" in California, where in some districts 10 Democratic candidates split vote so badly that 2 Republicans go to November. If possible - democrats must try to make an informal agreement even ewith Communists (in makes no sense to try to talk with LDPR) about common candidates in some districts - Communists are not satisfied with results either... The win is by plurality in Russia elections, and plurality may be achieved only in this way....

There are many more details, but they are of interests only to people of Russia. In short - Russia is a very big country, a serious player on world's political arena, but - with extremely strong "Empire tradition", absolute scarcity of Democratic experience, and very underdeveloped ("thirld world-type") politics... It was different in 1985-1995, when "power" itself encouraged difference of opinions and views under Gorbachev, but - not now...

[smoltchanov]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

[ag]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

By 2024 either the Shah dies, or the ass.

[smoltchanov]

Yabloko won a seat? That's surprising.

Not really. They won a constituency

Actually, we still do not know even that.

For the results of the 2020 Duma election please enquire at Moscow, Staraya Ploshchad 4. Results will be available in a week or two.

Well, no... Before 2020 there will be presidential elections of 2018 with possible repercussions. And crisis will not go away by 2020, while "Crimea is ours!" - gradually will. Though i expect real changes in 2024, when Presidential and Duma elections will coincide, and Putin (at least - technically) will not be eligible to run...

By 2024 either the Shah dies, or the ass.

And we shall see - who. Inertia among russian people is enormous - after "stormy" 90th they (mostly) went into hibernation again. Time will be needed to awaken them.....

[rob in cal]

   Isn't there a term called "false aerodromes (or airfields)" in which the Kremlin sets up fake parties to siphon off votes from real opposition parties? This could be the case with the Communist Party of Russia.

[ag]

   Isn't there a term called "false aerodromes (or airfields)" in which the Kremlin sets up fake parties to siphon off votes from real opposition parties? This could be the case with the Communist Party of Russia.

It is far beyond that. Mainline Russian communists have been a fake opposition for a long time themselves. Well, they just decided to humiliate them slightly. Pretty much every political organization allowed into this race had been infiltrated and/or agreed to play within the role given to it by the Kremlin. Some of them hoped to get something in exchange - well, none of them, really, did. This was no election whatsoever. Talking of anything specifically being "false" here is like talking about something being "false" in a Ponzi scheme - it is redundant.

[smoltchanov]

   Isn't there a term called "false aerodromes (or airfields)" in which the Kremlin sets up fake parties to siphon off votes from real opposition parties? This could be the case with the Communist Party of Russia.

It is far beyond that. Mainline Russian communists have been a fake opposition for a long time themselves. Well, they just decided to humiliate them slightly. Pretty much every political organization allowed into this race had been infiltrated and/or agreed to play within the role given to it by the Kremlin. Some of them hoped to get something in exchange - well, none of them, really, did. This was no election whatsoever. Talking of anything specifically being "false" here is like talking about something being "false" in a Ponzi scheme - it is redundant.

+100. The very "core rules", under which "elections" are held in Russia are false. And there is a rule in mathematical logic: "you can deduce anything from false statement". Which is absolutely applicable here. In 90th (however "stormy" they were) there was something like "free elections" in Russia. Not fully ("administrative resource" existed even then), but - mostly. After "vertical of power" was announced somewhere in 2003, after tragic events in Beslan - no more...

[Famous Mortimer]

So besides United Russia, KPRF, LDPR, and Fair Russia, Motherland and Civic Platform also won a seat each. Motherland is a new party led by a former member of United Russia. It shares the same name as the largest party that merged with others to become Fair Russia. One can assume it has a similar left-wing nationalist ideology as Fair Russia and was created to confuse their voters. Civic Platform was the party founded by New York Nets owner and conservative liberal presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov. He is no longer a member. It is now a right-wing nationalist party led by a former member of the LDPR. Presumably maintained by the Kremlin to split LDPR and/or liberal votes.

[smoltchanov]

So besides United Russia, KPRF, LDPR, and Fair Russia, Motherland and Civic Platform also won a seat each. Motherland is a new party led by a former member of United Russia. It shares the same name as the largest party that merged with others to become Fair Russia. One can assume it has a similar left-wing nationalist ideology as Fair Russia and was created to confuse their voters. Civic Platform was the party founded by New York Nets owner and conservative liberal presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov. He is no longer a member. It is now a right-wing nationalist party led by a former member of the LDPR. Presumably maintained by the Kremlin to split LDPR and/or liberal votes.

Yes on both points. And - pay attention to the fact that both districts were "cleared" for candidates you mentioned (no candidates from "United Russia", who could win on party label, and so on...)

[ag]

So, I think the general consensus of those bothering to do the calculations, is that at least 10-15 percentage points of the turnout is outright fake. In other words,  given that that the official turnout is under 50%, between every fourth and every third vote counted was not really cast. That is, probably, a low estimate.

And they did this without any real need to do it. Even if the UR had fewer seats, the other "parliamentary parties" are completely loyal. I guess, it was purely the matter of not getting out of shape on faking.