Is NH still a swing state?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Despite not voting GOP in a Presidetial election since 2000 many still consider it a swing state. I would say it is still a swing state, with the right candidate it could go  GOP in a presidential election. Republican. Senator Kelly Ayotte still has a good chance to hold on to her senate seat, plus the the GOP appears to be the favorite to win the governorship in 2016. Most of the past state wide races have also been fairly close.

[IceSpear]

inb4...

nevermind

[SingingAnalyst]

Yes, it is an innovative forward-looking state, hence its support for Obama, seen as a candidate of the future. Clinton, like it or not, may be seen as a candidate of the past, despite being the first woman President (if she wins). Perhaps this is unavoidable, in part because of Clinton's age: Clinton grew up at a time when women in leadership positions were rare and a woman President almost unthinkable. Elizabeth Warren and Nikki Haley do not appear to have this issue. Clinton will probably carry NH against Trump in the general, but by a razor thin, 1992- or 2004-style margin.

[Clark Kent]

Yes, very much.

TNvolunteer, how about you actually give us some proof as to why you think that New Hampshire is a Democratic state?

[Sir Mohamed]

No, it is a Dem leaning state. But that doesn't mean it's impossible to win for the GOP. But that requires a larger victory; see IN in 2008.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yes; it was close in 2012, and Romney even led the polls there early on.  Bush only lost it by a few thousand votes in 2004, and much of that was probably a favorite son effect of Kerry being from Massachusetts.  Plus, it has somewhat of a libertarian streak and a very strong anti-tax sentiment, which could help the GOP under the right circumstances.  It takes far more than three elections to say that a state is red or blue.

the GOP appears to be the favorite to win the governorship in 2016.

Says who?  It will be close, no matter which party wins.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

TNvolunteer, how about you actually give us some proof as to why you think that New Hampshire is a Democratic state?

It doesn't vote for Republicans anymore. Next question?

I'll have to tell Kelly Ayotte that next time I see her.

[Clark Kent]

TNvolunteer, how about you actually give us some proof as to why you think that New Hampshire is a Democratic state?

It doesn't vote for Republicans anymore. Next question?

That's...that's stupid.

Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada haven't voted Republican in eight years. Are they solid Democratic states too?

Pennsylvania and Michigan haven't voted Republican since 1988. Wisconsin hasn't since 1984. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972. Are they all solidly Democratic?

New Hampshire last voted Republican in 2000, and very narrowly voted Democratic in 2004, when the Democratic nominee was a New Englander. Sure, it hasn't voted Republican in the last three presidential elections, but two of those were Democratic victories.

Nobody is saying that New Hampshire is a Republican state (like it was in the 1980s), but it sure as heck isn't a Democratic one.

[Virginiá]

That's...that's stupid.

Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada haven't voted Republican in eight years. Are they solid Democratic states too?

Pennsylvania and Michigan haven't voted Republican since 1988. Wisconsin hasn't since 1984. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972. Are they all solidly Democratic?

New Hampshire last voted Republican in 2000, and very narrowly voted Democratic in 2004, when the Democratic nominee was a New Englander. Sure, it hasn't voted Republican in the last three presidential elections, but two of those were Democratic victories.

Nobody is saying that New Hampshire is a Republican state (like it was in the 1980s), but it sure as heck isn't a Democratic one.

The way I see it is, a state generally starts showing signs at the state/local level when it is realigning to a different party. You can see a giant shift in voting patterns around 2006 in Colorado which obviously lead to Obama's 2 wins there. Oregon is similar - It started voting Democratic in statewide contests right around the same time it started voting Democratic for president. The legislature flipped years earlier (but swung a bit before settling).

Not all states do this though. Michigan and Wisconsin have had Republican state governments for many years now despite consistent Democratic wins in presidential elections/Senate races, so there are some exceptions on a state-by-state basis I think.

So let's look here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_New_Hampshire

A huge sea of red all the way until Bill Clinton (for the most part), which you can see a slow transition from the 90s - 2007 where Democrats have begun winning a lot of state races across the board. Add to the fact that Obama won in NH comfortably both times. His 2012 win wasn't as big but it was larger than his national margin and his first win was a blowout when compared to previous presidential elections in NH.

It's obvious Republican success in NH has been on the decline for decades, but it's probably too soon to label NH safe/solid blue. However, Republicans will probably need a sizable win to carry this state by even Bush-2000 numbers. I dunno if you could say that it is swing state, but what we can say is Republicans probably have at least somewhat of a chance if they run the right candidate. That doesn't seem like the case in cycle

So if Democrats get 1-2 more cycles of sizable wins in NH with continued success at the state level, I doubt it would be fair to call it a swing state anymore.

[Asian Nazi]

I was once a huge critic of my friend TN Volunteer's insistence that NH was a blue state and trending even bluer. However, angry women aside, I am now solidly convinced that this is the case.  NH can be won by a Republican, but it is growing increasingly difficult and will soon be impossible.  The Vermontification is well under way.

[RINO Tom]

I was once a huge critic of my friend TN Volunteer's insistence that NH was a blue state and trending even bluer. However, angry women aside, I am now solidly convinced that this is the case.  NH can be won by a Republican, but it is growing increasingly difficult and will soon be impossible.  The Vermontification is well under way.

Thanks, man.

That's...that's stupid.

Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada haven't voted Republican in eight years. Are they solid Democratic states too?

Pennsylvania and Michigan haven't voted Republican since 1988. Wisconsin hasn't since 1984. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972. Are they all solidly Democratic?

New Hampshire last voted Republican in 2000, and very narrowly voted Democratic in 2004, when the Democratic nominee was a New Englander. Sure, it hasn't voted Republican in the last three presidential elections, but two of those were Democratic victories.

Nobody is saying that New Hampshire is a Republican state (like it was in the 1980s), but it sure as heck isn't a Democratic one.

Republicans have had much success in statewide races in pretty much every swing and lean D state since 2010 except NH and MN. The only reason NH is called a swing state is because Bush won it with 48% due to the Levinsky scandal (he was up 20 points over Gore in NH in early 2000 and still almost lost in on election day) and Ayotte won her Senate race so decisively (I'm sure sexism had nothing to do with that!). But that's it. Yet there are posters on Atlas who think NH will somehow magically vote Republican because muh Whites and Elastic Independents Trend R! but PA (where Republicans have won much more statewide races in the past) is somehow solid D because muh Philadelphia suburbs and muh diversity! Can Republicans come close to winning New Hampshire? Well, if you think 4 or 5 points is close, then the answer is yes. But constantly losing a state by single digits (even in huge Republican wave years) instead of double digits doesn't mean that it's competitive. The 2nd congressional district already votes to the left of the Northeast Kingdom and the 1st district is trending SLIGHTLY D as well. The 2012 and 2014 results speak for themselves. Only on Atlas do people believe that Scott Brown only lost because he didn't know enough about Sullivan County LOL.

TNvolunteer, how about you actually give us some proof as to why you think that New Hampshire is a Democratic state?

It doesn't vote for Republicans anymore. Next question?

I'll have to tell Kelly Ayotte that next time I see her.

Okay, so WV is a swing state as well because Joe Manchin won a Senate race there in 2010? And IL, too?

This comment would make sense if you limited your NH trolling to Presidential elections only, but you don't.

[YaBoyNY]

You guys should stop arguing that NH is a swing state against people who know more about NH than you, especially TN volunteer.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Could it be that it might be a competitive state in Presidential elections that votes Democratic because, y'know, Democrats keep winning national elections?

It was only 1 point more Democratic in the past two Presidential elections that Democrats won. The state legislature swings pretty wildly as well, and for Governor and Senate the Democrats keep putting up strong candidates, while the Republicans don't


Republicans suck at winning elections that aren't midterms that favor them. Other than 2004 most voters keep rejecting their Presidential nominees, and I don't expect that to change in 2016.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

NH can be won by a Republican, but it is growing increasingly difficult and will soon be impossible.  The Vermontification is well under way.

This hits the nail on the head. I won't go so far as to place New Hampshire in the "Safe D" column, but it definitely leans left: no state that reelected its Democratic governor and Democratic Senator in 2014 can be counted a true toss-up.

Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada haven't voted Republican in eight years. Are they solid Democratic states too?

New Mexico really isn't a swing state at this point, and while Virginia could still vote Republican in the near future, it probably tilts D in presidential races. The remainder of those states either elected a Republican Senator in 2014 (Iowa, Colorado) or re-elected a Republican governor that same year (Ohio, Florida, Nevada). Simply put, there are recent examples of Republicans winning statewide races in those states; the last Republican to do so in New Hampshire was Ayotte in 2010. Like Violent Socialist said, it's still possible for the GOP to win there, but it's hardly of the same stripe as Ohio and Colorado.

Pennsylvania and Michigan haven't voted Republican since 1988. Wisconsin hasn't since 1984. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972.

Yes, and there is no reason to believe this trends is in danger of ending. The fact that the GOP won elections in Wisconsin and Michigan in the wave years of 2010 and 2014 does not make them legitimate swing states any more than Donnelly's 2012 victory makes Indiana a swing state. A down-ballot Republican can still win here under the right circumstances, but they will continue to vote Democratic at the presidential level for the foreseeable future.

[Devils30]

Trump could easily lose every county there in November.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

TNvolunteer, how about you actually give us some proof as to why you think that New Hampshire is a Democratic state?

It doesn't vote for Republicans anymore. Next question?

That's...that's stupid.

Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada haven't voted Republican in eight years. Are they solid Democratic states too?

Pennsylvania and Michigan haven't voted Republican since 1988. Wisconsin hasn't since 1984. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972. Are they all solidly Democratic?

According to this forum, they are.  What the news media does is that it simply looks at which party carries the state, and then passes judgment on whether it is "red" or "blue."  They don't look at the actual margins.  Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin may not have voted for a GOP presidential candidate since the 80s, but they've been close since then.  And yes, the wider Dem margins usually come when they win the presidency (Clinton and Obama).  I contend that Bush actually would've carried Wisconsin in 2000 if it weren't for the early Gore call in Florida depressing Republican turnout in the remaining states, but I digress. 

[Asian Nazi]

The idea that "a state was close in the election, therefore it's a swing state" is stupid.  It's predicated on the assumption that national uniform swing is a real thing, which it most certainly isn't.  Swings vary wildly from state to state and from election to election.  There is nothing more frustrating than Atlas Republican #analysis about how Minnesota is a swing state, when the fact is that the GOP hasn't broken 50% there in a statewide election in over 20 years.  Closeness doesn't mean sh*t when your ceiling is below 50%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Dems will sweep the delegation again, with Hassan and Van Ostern

[Santander]

The GOP could win NH easily by promising to build a wall on the southern border... with Massachusetts.

[Camaro33]

New Hampshire for Republicans is similar to North Carolina for Democrats. Either state will be won only if the party has already won the national election by a margin of a few states. Although 2000 is an exception to that rule precisely, this is the general fact for the time being. Basically what I am saying is, if Republicans win the election, New Hampshire is not the state tipping over 270 EV, but is definitely one of the next states to tip. So yes, it is a lean-D swing state.

[P123]

TNvolunteer, how about you actually give us some proof as to why you think that New Hampshire is a Democratic state?

It doesn't vote for Republicans anymore. Next question?

That's...that's stupid.

Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada haven't voted Republican in eight years. Are they solid Democratic states too?

Pennsylvania and Michigan haven't voted Republican since 1988. Wisconsin hasn't since 1984. Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since 1972. Are they all solidly Democratic?

New Hampshire last voted Republican in 2000, and very narrowly voted Democratic in 2004, when the Democratic nominee was a New Englander. Sure, it hasn't voted Republican in the last three presidential elections, but two of those were Democratic victories.

Nobody is saying that New Hampshire is a Republican state (like it was in the 1980s), but it sure as heck isn't a Democratic one.

New Mexico and Minnesota are solidly Democrat lol. The only way a Republican would get Minnesota in a presidential election would be in a massive landslide, and New Mexico is obviously completely out of the question for a Republican to win in the general. Michigan would need a landslide for it to flip do to Detroit.

Pennsylvania is swing same with Ohio. Nevada is Democrat, but not strong.

[P123]

I was once a huge critic of my friend TN Volunteer's insistence that NH was a blue state and trending even bluer. However, angry women aside, I am now solidly convinced that this is the case.  NH can be won by a Republican, but it is growing increasingly difficult and will soon be impossible.  The Vermontification is well under way.

I agree with this. Grafton County is all you need to know.

[Virginiá]

I think the election results this November will confirm whether or not NH is still a swing state. Now, I have my opinions, but right now it's impossible to say for sure.

What I can say is that New Hampshire is quite clearly trending Democratic at both the state and federal level. If Democrats win NH convincingly this November as well as making even more gains at the state level, then it might be safe to say that NH is in Democratic bloc.

It's also worth noting that this year in particular might be more significant, as vile candidates like Trump representing a party for president can accelerate local trends.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

"NH is a blue state"

Tell that to Shawn Jasper and Jeb Bradley.

[Clark Kent]

Consistently close in presidential elections along with being the second most elastic state in the country, Republicans control both houses of the state legislature while a Democrat is governor, one of its CDs is represented by a Democrat and the other by a Republican, one of its Senators is a Democrat and the other is a Republican...yes, it is very much a swing state.