Pennsylvania in 2016
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Devils30
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« on: February 27, 2016, 01:28:14 AM »

I think most on this board agree with me that this very well will be the tipping point state this time around. Clinton is a strong fit for Virginia and Trump is too weak with DC suburbanites and blacks to win there. I can see 2016 in PA as a culmination of trends since 1988.

Trump expands on Romney numbers in SW PA, wins double digits in Fayette, Beaver and gets over 60% in Washington, Greene, Cambria and Westmoreland counties.

Clinton wins Montgomery, DelCo and Bucks by above 2008 Obama margins and flips Chester and Berks back after <1% Romney wins in both. She also trims the GOP numbers in Lancaster to near single digits.

Overall these trends cancel each other out and PA stays slightly D leaning.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2016, 01:57:45 AM »

Yeah, sounds about right with Trump. Hillary would be in serious trouble against Kasich here, since he's the type of candidate who could make inroads into the Philly suburbs. Rubio to a lesser extent, depending on how hard the media pimped him as a reasonable and sane moderate that he isn't.
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windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2016, 07:01:12 AM »

PA is going to be a dem leaning state, as always.
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2016, 10:23:48 AM »

2010 Senate map idea is interesting but Trump won't get Toomey numbers in the Philly area, he'll do much worse. The 2010 PA map would also be a Democratic victory with Presidential turnout patterns.
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2016, 11:52:16 AM »

PA will vote right on the national average, for whichever party wins.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2016, 01:40:04 PM »

PA will vote right on the national average, for whichever party wins.

no it won't lol
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2016, 01:46:37 PM »

PA will vote right on the national average, for whichever party wins.

no it won't lol
Why not? PA was within 1% in 2012.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2016, 02:39:11 PM »

PA will vote right on the national average, for whichever party wins.

no it won't lol
Why not? PA was within 1% in 2012.

Because there's literally no evidence to suggest that it will?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2016, 03:44:06 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2016, 03:45:58 PM by Virginia »

Because there's literally no evidence to suggest that it will?

It's funny because regardless, PA has gone Democratic for an entire generation now. Democrats scored 10%+ margin in 2008, which shows they have a high ceiling there, yet Republicans can't even get 1 win in something like 25 years. Not to mention 1988's GOP winning margin was < 2%

This is the kind of state where unless there are some substantial, blatantly obvious pro-GOP trends, that it is best to assume it will just go Democratic but there is at least a marginal chance it won't. With Trump on the ticket, they would be lucky if their US House delegation didn't get eviscerated as they lose the state at the presidential level.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2016, 03:57:16 PM »

Because there's literally no evidence to suggest that it will?

It's funny because regardless, PA has gone Democratic for an entire generation now. Democrats scored 10%+ margin in 2008, which shows they have a high ceiling there, yet Republicans can't even get 1 win in something like 25 years. Not to mention 1988's GOP winning margin was < 2%

This is the kind of state where unless there are some substantial, blatantly obvious pro-GOP trends, that it is best to assume it will just go Democratic but there is at least a marginal chance it won't. With Trump on the ticket, they would be lucky if their US House delegation didn't get eviscerated as they lose the state at the presidential level.

It's a stunningly inelastic state. Unless you have literally the perfect Republican candidate for PA and the absolute worst Democratic candidate for PA, it's not going Republican anytime in the next few cycles.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2016, 04:44:23 PM »

The problem for the GOP is that the candidates who appeal to western PA (Trump) are toxic in eastern PA. Rubio meanwhile may not take advantage of western PA enough to offset usual Dem wins in eastern PA.
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Craziaskowboi
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« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2016, 04:11:57 AM »
« Edited: March 11, 2016, 05:21:02 AM by Craziaskowboi »

Pennsylvania is fool's gold for Republicans.

Not only that, but barring unforeseen circumstances, I think people are about to have their minds blown by how hard to the left Pennsylvania turns in the next 10 years. According to a study by Tufts University, the youth vote in Pennsylvania has "tilted far more to the left" than the older age brackets in recent elections. And the drift to the right in western Pennsylvania won't even matter for three reasons:


1. It doesn't include Allegheny County, which Barack Obama still would have won in 2012 even without the city of Pittsburgh.

2. Outside of Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties, every other county in western Pennsylvania has lost population since 2010.

3. At the same time, the population in left-drifting eastern Pennsylvania has continued growing.


It's also worth noting that you can overlay a map of all the coal fields and gas wells in Pennsylvania on top of a map of recent political trends by county, and discover a near-perfect correlation between the presence of hydrocarbons in the ground and a drift to the right.

And going back to what was said about younger Pennsylvanians being far to the left of older Pennsylvanians, the only reason anybody still considers Pennsylvania a "swing" state is because it has a high percentage of elderly residents. But those elderly residents won't get older forever; eventually they're going to die, and they'll leave behind a younger population that votes far to the left of them. In fact, the die-off of elderly Pennsylvanians has probably begun already. This is why Pennsylvania is projected to have the slowest rate of elderly population growth of all states between now and 2030.

Another factor to consider is that Pennsylvania is very quietly becoming more diverse. If trends between the 2010 Census and the 2014 estimates are accurate, then Pennsylvania by 2020 will have more than 1,500,000 black residents, more than 1,000,000 Hispanic residents, and more than 500,000 Asian residents. It still won't be quite the melting pot that New York and New Jersey are, but it won't be nearly as "white bread" as its reputation either. And until Republicans make in-roads with racial/ethnic minorities, you can expect the growing number of non-white Pennsylvanians to vote primarily for Democrats.

Plain and simple, expect Pennsylvania to become a "safe" Democrat state by the middle of next decade, barring unforeseen circumstances.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2016, 07:02:25 AM »

I did read an article once about how middle Pensylvania was where turnout was low and that Philly was pretty maxed out, so a candidate like Trump could get those people perhaps. Western Pennsylvania will continue to swing republican, at least one more cycle, and eastern PA will probably continue to trend D, although it's worth noting that places like Bucks county trended R in 2012 so the idea that it's a proportional trend is a little silly. So yes PA will probably be slightly D and close, it is not a safe D state by any means, if there is a republican president who wins a 2012 style victory they will most likely win PA.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2016, 07:28:59 AM »

Pennsylvania is fool's gold for Republicans.

Not only that, but barring unforeseen circumstances, I think people are about to have their minds blown by how hard to the left Pennsylvania turns in the next 10 years. According to a study by Tufts University, the youth vote in Pennsylvania has "tilted far more to the left" than the older age brackets in recent elections. And the drift to the right in western Pennsylvania won't even matter for three reasons:


1. It doesn't include Allegheny County, which Barack Obama still would have won in 2012 even without the city of Pittsburgh.

2. Outside of Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties, every other county in western Pennsylvania has lost population since 2010.

3. At the same time, the population in left-drifting eastern Pennsylvania has continued growing.


It's also worth noting that you can overlay a map of all the coal fields and gas wells in Pennsylvania on top of a map of recent political trends by county, and discover a near-perfect correlation between the presence of hydrocarbons in the ground and a drift to the right.

And going back to what was said about younger Pennsylvanians being far to the left of older Pennsylvanians, the only reason anybody still considers Pennsylvania a "swing" state is because it has a high percentage of elderly residents. But those elderly residents won't get older forever; eventually they're going to die, and they'll leave behind a younger population that votes far to the left of them. In fact, the die-off of elderly Pennsylvanians has probably begun already. This is why Pennsylvania is projected to have the slowest rate of elderly population growth of all states between now and 2030.

Another factor to consider is that Pennsylvania is very quietly becoming more diverse. If trends between the 2010 Census and the 2014 estimates are accurate, then Pennsylvania by 2020 will have more than 1,500,000 black residents, more than 1,000,000 Hispanic residents, and more than 500,000 Asian residents. It still won't be quite the melting pot that New York and New Jersey are, but it won't be nearly as "white bread" as its reputation either. And until Republicans make in-roads with racial/ethnic minorities, you can expect the growing number of non-white Pennsylvanians to vote primarily for Democrats.

Plain and simple, expect Pennsylvania to become a "safe" Democrat state by the middle of next decade, barring unforeseen circumstances.

Okay, then how can the GOP ever win another election again?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2016, 07:30:36 AM »

In a neutral election like 2000 was Gore won the state by four points 50-46, I think thats reasonable for a Clinton win
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« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2016, 09:49:54 AM »

Expect PA to be about 3-4 points more Democratic than the national margin. When there's a Republican incumbent running that number gets a little bigger, and when there's a Democratic incumbent running that number gets a little smaller. That's been pretty much it for the last few decades.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2016, 11:27:16 AM »

Okay, then how can the GOP ever win another election again?

Formulate policy that appeals to both the younger generation(s) and non-white voters. It's the GOP's fault that they are losing out on everyone but older whites. They refuse to adjust with the times and have alienated almost all non-white voters so efficiently you'd think it was their plan all along.

They just won't accept the reality of their situation and eventually it'll cost them big. Demographic and generational trends are pretty well understood and the data has been around for years, so they have no excuse here.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2016, 01:12:23 PM »

If Toomey wins while Trump loses, is it still fool's gold? That seems to be the likely situation right now (though I prefer the reverse.) It would show the GOP can win something here during a Presidential year. (I'm curious if the AG race might be tilt R too. Lots of semi-informed people still mad as heck about Kathleen Kane for whatever reason, but the uninformed will surely be filling in nearly straight ticket ballots for both sides.)
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« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2016, 01:26:56 PM »

If Toomey wins while Trump loses, is it still fool's gold? That seems to be the likely situation right now (though I prefer the reverse.) It would show the GOP can win something here during a Presidential year. (I'm curious if the AG race might be tilt R too. Lots of semi-informed people still mad as heck about Kathleen Kane for whatever reason, but the uninformed will surely be filling in nearly straight ticket ballots for both sides.)

Incumbency can skew things (though it's not always enough, apologies to Santorum).
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #19 on: March 11, 2016, 01:41:37 PM »

If Toomey wins while Trump loses, is it still fool's gold? That seems to be the likely situation right now (though I prefer the reverse.) It would show the GOP can win something here during a Presidential year. (I'm curious if the AG race might be tilt R too. Lots of semi-informed people still mad as heck about Kathleen Kane for whatever reason, but the uninformed will surely be filling in nearly straight ticket ballots for both sides.)

Incumbency can skew things (though it's not always enough, apologies to Santorum).

Of course it can, but a relatively low turnout election that was won by just 2% isn't a great advantage. Most people who didn't vote in 2010 probably don't know who Toomey is, and we are talking about 40-50% higher turnout. A rematch really ought to be starting with Sestak favored, but it doesn't appear that way for the moment.

The people also just rejected Corbett in a landslide when he was not that much worse than any other Republican in this nation. For any GOPer to win in an election year would be quite a feat - incumbent or not.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2016, 01:43:01 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2016, 01:48:57 PM by Da-Jon »

Toomey has the best of luck of two lesser quality challengers, and Shapiro didnt run. But, Pa does have a history of voting GOP for Sen and Dem for prez in 2004, I dont expect that, because McGinty is the better candidate. McGinty and Clinton will win, Clinton by 4 and McGinty by 2 over Pat Toomey
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Craziaskowboi
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« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2016, 08:58:52 AM »

Pennsylvania is fool's gold for Republicans.

Not only that, but barring unforeseen circumstances, I think people are about to have their minds blown by how hard to the left Pennsylvania turns in the next 10 years. According to a study by Tufts University, the youth vote in Pennsylvania has "tilted far more to the left" than the older age brackets in recent elections. And the drift to the right in western Pennsylvania won't even matter for three reasons:


1. It doesn't include Allegheny County, which Barack Obama still would have won in 2012 even without the city of Pittsburgh.

2. Outside of Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties, every other county in western Pennsylvania has lost population since 2010.

3. At the same time, the population in left-drifting eastern Pennsylvania has continued growing.


It's also worth noting that you can overlay a map of all the coal fields and gas wells in Pennsylvania on top of a map of recent political trends by county, and discover a near-perfect correlation between the presence of hydrocarbons in the ground and a drift to the right.

And going back to what was said about younger Pennsylvanians being far to the left of older Pennsylvanians, the only reason anybody still considers Pennsylvania a "swing" state is because it has a high percentage of elderly residents. But those elderly residents won't get older forever; eventually they're going to die, and they'll leave behind a younger population that votes far to the left of them. In fact, the die-off of elderly Pennsylvanians has probably begun already. This is why Pennsylvania is projected to have the slowest rate of elderly population growth of all states between now and 2030.

Another factor to consider is that Pennsylvania is very quietly becoming more diverse. If trends between the 2010 Census and the 2014 estimates are accurate, then Pennsylvania by 2020 will have more than 1,500,000 black residents, more than 1,000,000 Hispanic residents, and more than 500,000 Asian residents. It still won't be quite the melting pot that New York and New Jersey are, but it won't be nearly as "white bread" as its reputation either. And until Republicans make in-roads with racial/ethnic minorities, you can expect the growing number of non-white Pennsylvanians to vote primarily for Democrats.

Plain and simple, expect Pennsylvania to become a "safe" Democrat state by the middle of next decade, barring unforeseen circumstances.

Okay, then how can the GOP ever win another election again?

Wait another 10-20 years. Eventually the Democrats will wear out their welcome. There's also data suggesting that the post-Millennial generation (born in 1996 or afterward) is already trending more conservative than the Millennials, and it's likely that Millennials themselves will become more conservative after a while, considering it's very difficult to be more liberal than they already are. It could happen in 10 years, or it could happen in 20 years, but it will happen.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2016, 11:00:17 AM »

Pennsylvania is fool's gold for Republicans.

Not only that, but barring unforeseen circumstances, I think people are about to have their minds blown by how hard to the left Pennsylvania turns in the next 10 years. According to a study by Tufts University, the youth vote in Pennsylvania has "tilted far more to the left" than the older age brackets in recent elections. And the drift to the right in western Pennsylvania won't even matter for three reasons:


1. It doesn't include Allegheny County, which Barack Obama still would have won in 2012 even without the city of Pittsburgh.

2. Outside of Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties, every other county in western Pennsylvania has lost population since 2010.

3. At the same time, the population in left-drifting eastern Pennsylvania has continued growing.


It's also worth noting that you can overlay a map of all the coal fields and gas wells in Pennsylvania on top of a map of recent political trends by county, and discover a near-perfect correlation between the presence of hydrocarbons in the ground and a drift to the right.

And going back to what was said about younger Pennsylvanians being far to the left of older Pennsylvanians, the only reason anybody still considers Pennsylvania a "swing" state is because it has a high percentage of elderly residents. But those elderly residents won't get older forever; eventually they're going to die, and they'll leave behind a younger population that votes far to the left of them. In fact, the die-off of elderly Pennsylvanians has probably begun already. This is why Pennsylvania is projected to have the slowest rate of elderly population growth of all states between now and 2030.

Another factor to consider is that Pennsylvania is very quietly becoming more diverse. If trends between the 2010 Census and the 2014 estimates are accurate, then Pennsylvania by 2020 will have more than 1,500,000 black residents, more than 1,000,000 Hispanic residents, and more than 500,000 Asian residents. It still won't be quite the melting pot that New York and New Jersey are, but it won't be nearly as "white bread" as its reputation either. And until Republicans make in-roads with racial/ethnic minorities, you can expect the growing number of non-white Pennsylvanians to vote primarily for Democrats.

Plain and simple, expect Pennsylvania to become a "safe" Democrat state by the middle of next decade, barring unforeseen circumstances.

Okay, then how can the GOP ever win another election again?

Wait another 10-20 years. Eventually the Democrats will wear out their welcome. There's also data suggesting that the post-Millennial generation (born in 1996 or afterward) is already trending more conservative than the Millennials, and it's likely that Millennials themselves will become more conservative after a while, considering it's very difficult to be more liberal than they already are. It could happen in 10 years, or it could happen in 20 years, but it will happen.
The post-Millennial generation ahahahaha. What a dumb post. Sad you are relying on the possible vote of Beliebers and Directioners.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2016, 01:07:23 PM »

Wait another 10-20 years. Eventually the Democrats will wear out their welcome. There's also data suggesting that the post-Millennial generation (born in 1996 or afterward) is already trending more conservative than the Millennials, and it's likely that Millennials themselves will become more conservative after a while, considering it's very difficult to be more liberal than they already are. It could happen in 10 years, or it could happen in 20 years, but it will happen.

Well it's certainly a possibility that they could become a little more conservative as they age, that doesn't necessarily mean they will begin voting Republican, either. Remember, older Republicans who went through over a decade of failed Bush wars and a collapsed economy under his watch didn't really turn against him for longer than 4 years. You'd be surprised how deep party loyalties can run. Especially when the other party is so ideologically different and even counter to their beliefs.

Regarding how liberal Millennials are - Yes, and it's because of that that Democrats could actually lose some of them and still come out on top because of just how Democratic-leaning they are. If their party loyalties stick, which it looks like they are so far, then they can lose some and still maintain strong majorities throughout the country in many places.
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« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2016, 02:55:55 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2016, 08:02:59 PM by Kempros »

PVI Numbers for the last 4 elections. States trend upward, backward, sideways, down ways, and many other hidden factors that make trends hard to predict, but these are the raw numbers.

Year       PVI        % Change from Previous Election

2000:  +2.22D    Base Year
2004:  +2.66D    +0.44%D
2008:  +1.61D    +1.05%R
2012:  +0.95D    +0.66%R

Line of Best Fit predictor shows it at about +0.5D for 2016. Again, trends are very hard to predict and can speed up, stop, or reverse. Trends on a graph tend to look like a stock market, but you can get a tiny idea by looking at the numbers. Hope this data helps.
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