TX-SurveyUSA: Trump vs. Dems close, but Cruz/Rubio easily beat them

[Tender Branson]

47% Trump
44% Clinton

47% Trump
44% Sanders

...

50% Cruz
42% Clinton

50% Cruz
41% Sanders

...

51% Rubio
41% Clinton

50% Rubio
40% Sanders

...

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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d56f70b-d2d2-4f08-935b-d812fdc2b5d7

[Ebsy]

Encouraging numbers against TRUMP, though of course I expect him (or any Republican) to win Texas.

[The Other Castro]

Democratic mobilization of Hispanic voters with Trump as the nominee can definitely make Texas much closer than usual, but we're still too far away from Texas being flippable.

[IceSpear]

So according to the early general election polls, Hillary is doing better in Texas and Utah than Minnesota and Michigan. Sounds legit.

[Tender Branson]

So according to the early general election polls, Hillary is doing better in Texas and Utah than Minnesota and Michigan.

UT ?

The last polls I saw had the Republicans up by a lot there.

[IceSpear]

So according to the early general election polls, Hillary is doing better in Texas and Utah than Minnesota and Michigan.

UT ?

The last polls I saw had the Republicans up by a lot there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226330.0

[Eraserhead]

Wow, Cruz sucks.

[Tender Branson]

So according to the early general election polls, Hillary is doing better in Texas and Utah than Minnesota and Michigan.

UT ?

The last polls I saw had the Republicans up by a lot there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226330.0

Polls are really unstable at this point though and many Republicans are uneasy about voting for Trump and many Dems/Indies are not sold on Clinton in the GE.

But there's no doubt that Trump would easily win UT and TX. They are trolling around now and only show their ugly, xenophobic Trump-voting nature on election day ...

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I TOLD YOU!!! THEY SAID I WAS CRAZY BUT I KNEW IT WOULD BE CLOSE!!'

[Ebsy]

I TOLD YOU!!! THEY SAID I WAS CRAZY BUT I KNEW IT WOULD BE CLOSE!!'

Calm down hon.

[IceSpear]

There's some interesting stuff in the crosstabs. Even though the topline numbers are basically equal for Hillary and Sanders, the differences mirror the actual primary. Bernie does better among whites, but worse among blacks and Hispanics. He does better among youngs, but worse among seniors. Better among males and worse among females. Better among independents, but worse among Democrats and, interestingly, Republicans.

Also, Trump wins '12 Ron Paul voters 77-8 against Hillary but only 64-23 against Bernie. So much for the talking point that there wasn't overlap there...

[eric82oslo]

Rubio is more popular than Cruz in his own home state.

[Eraserhead]

I TOLD YOU!!! THEY SAID I WAS CRAZY BUT I KNEW IT WOULD BE CLOSE!!'

Enjoy it while it lasts. Trump's going to carry Texas by 20 points or so.

[pbrower2a]

So according to the early general election polls, Hillary is doing better in Texas and Utah than Minnesota and Michigan.

UT ?

The last polls I saw had the Republicans up by a lot there.

The last polls that I saw of Utah had all Republicans except Trump doing well in Utah. I simply see Donald Trump as the worst possible fit that any Republican can be in Utah due to his involvement in businesses that offend Mormon values and his multiple divorces. Utah has been about as solidly and consistently Republican as any state since Dwight Eisenhower won over LDS hierarch Ezra Taft Benson before the 1952 election.

I can see tepid support by Mormons in Utah for Donald Trump putting Utah (and Arizona, which is much closer than Utah in most elections and has a large Mormon vote) in play. Just think of West Virginia in 1972, then typically a very solid Democratic state, being one of the strongest states for Richard Nixon: voters rejected George McGovern for his real or imagined affiliations with a left-wing culture that has no roots in West Virginia.

[pbrower2a]

Rubio is more popular than Cruz in his own home state.

Texans obviously know Ted Cruz far better than they know Marco Rubio. 

[pbrower2a]

So according to the early general election polls, Hillary is doing better in Texas and Utah than Minnesota and Michigan.

UT ?

The last polls I saw had the Republicans up by a lot there.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226330.0

Polls are really unstable at this point though and many Republicans are uneasy about voting for Trump and many Dems/Indies are not sold on Clinton in the GE.

Texas is a difficult state to poll well due to its regional differences  and ethnic diversity. Texas straddles regions of the US and is not a region unto itself. One needs a giant sample to get viable polling in Texas, and that is fiendishly expensive.   

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Any Republican must now reasonably expect to win Texas by at least 15% to have a reasonable chance of winning nationwide.

[Xing]

If accurate, these are terrible numbers for the Republicans. Romney won Texas by 16. If they can't win here by more than 10 percent or so, how will they even compete in NV/CO?

[Xing]

If accurate, these are terrible numbers for the Republicans. Romney won Texas by 16. If they can't win here by more than 10 percent or so, how will they even compete in NV/CO?

Multiple polls have shown Trump leading Clinton in FL and OH. So unless you believe that TX will vote to the left of those states, it's more likely that this poll is junk and/or that Trump's numbers will improve significantly. Texas polls are about as bad as NH polls. I mean, TX Lyceum showed Rubio trailing Clinton in TX three months ago lol.

That's why I said if accurate. The polls in FL and OH could just as easily be off. I don't doubt that Trump will do better than a 3-point win in Texas, but even if his numbers get up to Cruz/Rubio levels in Texas, he's still finished.

[ElectionsGuy]

There's no way Clinton is winning this state, it won't be close either. But I think it is clear thus far that Donald would do far worse, with its 20+% Hispanic electorate, than generic Republican victories.

[Maxwell]

Throw it in the TRASH

[Skye]

I think Hillary would get at best 44-45 here. Most likely Obama's 08 performance.

[Devils30]

Texas is going red but anything in single digits means Clinton is winning Florida easily and probably competing in Arizona.

[Potus]

This is a poll of adults.