Is tonight's big win for Mrs. Clinton really a surprise?
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Author Topic: Is tonight's big win for Mrs. Clinton really a surprise?  (Read 881 times)
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« on: February 27, 2016, 08:55:31 PM »
« edited: February 27, 2016, 08:57:46 PM by Sanders or Clinton will beat Trump. »
The recent polls showed her winning big, but not as big as she seems to have won by at this point.
As disappointing as it is, it is not a surprise.

edit: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/clemson-university-palmetto-poll-democratic-primary-summary/
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Higgs
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2016, 08:56:12 PM »
It really isn't.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2016, 08:56:31 PM »
Yes, the scale is a surprise.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2016, 08:56:41 PM »
The poll average had her up 25. She's winning by 50.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2016, 08:56:56 PM »
It's far above expectations. I would have been OK with a 60-65% win, but with a blowout like this there's no way Bernie can recover.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2016, 08:57:45 PM »
The win? Heck no. The margin? Heck yes.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2016, 08:58:07 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on February 27, 2016, 08:56:41 PM
The poll average had her up 25. She's winning by 50.

Exactly.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2016, 09:00:06 PM »
Quote from: Sanders or Clinton will beat Trump. on February 27, 2016, 08:55:31 PM
The recent polls showed her winning big, but not as big as she seems to have won by at this point.
As disappointing as it is, it is not a surprise.

edit: http://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/clemson-university-palmetto-poll-democratic-primary-summary/
This poll had Sanders winning only 14%. He did much better than that. So I guess he beat expectations, after all. Smiley
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2016, 09:01:02 PM »

A Clinton win of this magnitude is equally as surprising as a razor thin Sanders victory would've been. Gives it even more context.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2016, 09:03:47 PM »
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=230413.0
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2016, 09:05:13 PM »
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2016, 09:05:46 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on February 27, 2016, 08:56:41 PM
The poll average had her up 25. She's winning by 50.
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Pyro
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« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2016, 09:07:42 PM »
Not surprising. The headline "Clinton Wins by Huge Margin" was gonna happen anyway.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2016, 09:11:43 PM »
He got destroyed beyond what was expected, and it shows just how weak he is with African Americans. This is a preview of how he will do when the state demographics get darker going forward.

Considering how he is funding his campaign, if he loses momentum and for one reason or another also loses fundraising momentum as well, he is in big trouble. He doesn't have big donors to fall back on.

Let's give Hillary credit where credit is due.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2016, 09:14:53 PM »
Jesus.  I just checked the results.  73% is a surprise, that's a huge, huge drubbing.
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Hydera
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2016, 09:16:36 PM »
Most people predicted around the 58-68% range for her, Not 70%+.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2016, 09:17:18 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on February 27, 2016, 09:11:43 PM
He got destroyed beyond what was expected, and it shows just how weak he is with African Americans. This is a preview of how he will do when the state demographics get darker going forward.

Considering how he is funding his campaign, if he loses momentum and for one reason or another also loses fundraising momentum as well, he is in big trouble. He doesn't have big donors to fall back on.

Let's give Hillary credit where credit is due.
She won one primary and two caucuses and will probably win most states March 1. I'll give her credit for her wins, and likely wins March 1. If Sanders wins four or five states, possible if not likely, and closes the gaps in the states he loses, he is still in. With a little luck, he'll make it to at least March 15. Clinton has a definite edge at this point in time.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2016, 09:21:09 PM »
Yes. There is no understating how impressive this was. The reactions to other margins would be:
-20%: Sanders won NH by 22.4%, not a big deal
-30%: Ok that's pretty big, but Sanders could still come back. SC is one of Clinton's best states
-40%: Omg well damn Sanders is probably done, how did he only get 30%? Damnnn.
-50%: AYYLMAO abandonshipwhatisgoingonahhhhhhhh RIP
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2016, 09:26:54 PM »
Quote from: ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) on February 27, 2016, 09:16:36 PM
Most people predicted around the 58-68% range for her, Not 70%+.
I admit I predicted Sanders would get 43.5%. I said at the time it was just a guess.
I said it could be lower. It was. 68% is higher than I would have ever predicted. She did a little better.
These things are very unpredictable as I've always said. She overperformed tonight. There is a possibility that she could underperform in the future. She could win the nomination and go on to beat Trump. That is not even certain. I'd give Trump 10%. I can't even say that I'll live to see who wins. Nothing is certain.
I expect to live to see the results. The point is that nothing in life is certain.
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