"October Surprise" 1980

[Secular Politico]

What would have happened had the hostages been released in October 1980?

Would Reagan still have trounced Carter that year, would it have been close or would Carter have been easily returned to the White House on a wave of euphoria?

My guess is that it would have been a close affair but Carter would have been re-elected by holding most of the south and taking some crucial mid-west states like Michigan and Ohio too.

Imagine how that would have changed history. Reagan would have finished out his days as a B-Movie actor!

[YRABNNRM]

Imagine how that would have changed history. Reagan would have finished out his days as a B-Movie actor!

Or Governor of California...

[Secular Politico]

Yeah but lets be honest, it was only after serving two terms as President that he finally shook off his reputation as a "B rated Movie Star".

The fact that he was once governor of California wouldn't have held much sway in peoples minds, outside of California of course.

 

[Colin]

Yeah but lets be honest, it was only after serving two terms as President that he finally shook off his reputation as a "B rated Movie Star".

The fact that he was once governor of California wouldn't have held much sway in peoples minds, outside of California of course.

 

What the hell? Most people didn't see him as a B rated movie star and being a very successful, well liked, two term governor of America's most populous state is very much an accomplishment. Granted its not the Presidency but it is still nothing to scoff at. Well isn't this grand a person who has probably never held an elected office scoffing somebody because their elected office wasn't all that important.

[Beet]

Yeah but lets be honest, it was only after serving two terms as President that he finally shook off his reputation as a "B rated Movie Star".

The fact that he was once governor of California wouldn't have held much sway in peoples minds, outside of California of course.

 

What the hell? Most people didn't see him as a B rated movie star

What about his appearances in "The Anal Girls of Tobacco Road 2: Vagina Slimes" and "Dude, Where's my Dildo"?

[Jake]

Doubtful that it affects things enough. While the hostages were a big issue, the big hit the Carter Admin took was over the Spec Ops strike to recover them. Carter still had inflation, gas shortages, unemployment, etc to be hit with, and Reagan only loses one piece of his campaign. Reagan ends up pulling it out, much less than historically. Carter may get a 2 point swing in the nation, enough to put him over the top in the close states, but not enough nationally.



Reagan - 344 49%
Carter   - 194 43%
Anderson - 0    7%

[True Democrat]

316-222, Reagan win

I think this would have let Carter campaign more.  Remember, Carter barely campaigned in this election becaue he was so busy with the hostages and other problems.  The state I'm unsure about is Pennsylvania

[J. J.]

Before one of the Primaries, WI IIRC, the White House put out a story that there was going to be a big break in the hostage situation.  Carter won the primary (against Kennedy) but there was huge public outcry against him for "politicising" the situation.  A late October (post debate) release, would have been seen as a cynical political move.  Carter probably could not have recovered.

Now, an August 1 to October 1 release might have helped Carter.  He might have carried FL and PA, on True D's list, but not ME.